Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[alebrewer]

View attachment 96103

Texas is the same. 2021-2022 kind of went straight up but other than that it is back to normal seasonal patterns.

Maybe so, but I wouldn't consider 'Texas' to be a market. When I drill down to just a zip code - no other filters applied - I get this:

 

[Joe Flacco]

Overall trend in active listings is stable since 2020-2021.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Maybe so, but I wouldn't consider 'Texas' to be a market. When I drill down to just a zip code - no other filters applied - I get this:

View attachment 96106

Yeah, that is the problem when you zoom in. It helps a little bit to group it into quarters. But when zoomed in, you would still consider the seasonal trends and patterns. Seasonal patterns still apply, you are just not seeing it zoomed in because you don't have enough data points.

Tell you the truth, the only thing that really makes sense to me is looking at paired sales. Ideally with two sales of the same property.

 

[Joe Flacco]

It starts getting fuzzy at the city/town level. if you zoom in more into a zip code or neighborhood, then the median probably starts jumping all over the place.

 

[alebrewer]

View attachment 96110

It starts getting fuzzy at the city/town level. if you zoom in more into a zip code or neighborhood, then the median probably starts jumping all over the place.

Not sure how you're getting 10 years on Redfin - or how you're modeling that, but when I do a 5 year on Redfin for the entire state, it looks more like this:


There's definitely some level of cyclicity, but not nearly as obvious as what you're modeling.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Not sure how you're getting 10 years on Redfin - or how you're modeling that, but when I do a 5 year on Redfin for the entire state, it looks more like this:

View attachment 96112
There's definitely some level of cyclicity, but not nearly as obvious as what you're modeling.

That looks the same as the chart I grabbed from redfin datacenter. The only difference is the vertical axis is shrunk down and the horizontal axis is stretched out.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Data Center

View and download the latest housing market data from Redfin, including home prices, sales, inventory, new listings, and days on market.

www.redfin.com

 

[TerryRohrer]

Tell you the truth, the only thing that really makes sense to me is looking at paired sales. Ideally with two sales of the same property.

Although seldom promoted, this is the only approach that isolates inflation from other aspects influencing prices (assuming care is taken to address REO sales, remodels/flips, etc) while keeping other aspect truly "comparable", as in, identical. But, it is difficult to automate to the push of a button.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Although seldom promoted, this is the only approach that isolates inflation from other aspects influencing prices (assuming care is taken to address REO sales, remodels/flips, etc) while keeping other aspect truly "comparable", as in, identical. But, it is difficult to automate to the push of a button.

It is the best way. But resales within a short period of time seems to be less frequent these days with fewer sales in general. You can still tell a pretty good story with pairs you do find combined with bigger picture data.

 

[Mejappz]

Liss of True Footage appears to blame appraisers for homeowners being out of the market. Is this person an appraiser? Why is True Footage promoting its product so aggressively?

According to John Liss, the CEO and founder of True Footage, the new selling guide requirements “could bring back thousands of deals that die due to low appraisal.”
“About 10% of appraisals come in under the contract price. Many of those were incorrectly low,” Liss wrote. “The number one reason an appraisal comes in low when it shouldn’t have is because the appraiser failed to make a time adjustment.”
Time adjustments are a part of an appraiser’s analysis when he or she take the comparables sold in the past and brings them to present value.
“In 2021, in Austin, that July to December adjustment could have been 20%. In spite of record acceleration, appraisers were only making time adjustments 10% of the time. If you did not make that 20% time adjustment in July, you would never get the right contract price, because the December value would appear above market,” Liss said.
Liss believes the new mandated time adjustments have the ability to being “tens of thousands” of homeowners back to the market.
The FHFA report comes as the appraisal industry has been plagued for years by accusations of racial bias.

According to John Liss, the CEO and founder of True Footage, the new selling guide requirements “could bring back thousands of deals that die due to low appraisal.”
“About 10% of appraisals come in under the contract price. Many of those were incorrectly low,” Liss wrote. “The number one reason an appraisal comes in low when it shouldn’t have is because the appraiser failed to make a time adjustment.”
Time adjustments are a part of an appraiser’s analysis when he or she take the comparables sold in the past and brings them to present value.
“In 2021, in Austin, that July to December adjustment could have been 20%. In spite of record acceleration, appraisers were only making time adjustments 10% of the time. If you did not make that 20% time adjustment in July, you would never get the right contract price, because the December value would appear above market,” Liss said.
Liss believes the new mandated time adjustments have the ability to bring “tens of thousands” of homeowners back to the market.
The FHFA report comes as the appraisal industry has been plagued for years by accusations of racial bias.