Predictions for Housing Prices in 2025

[Joe Flacco]

Taking Inventory Of 2025: Despite High Mortgage Rates, Housing Prices (And Sales) Expected To Rise - Housing Notes

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[shrubberyvaluation]

That dart board.

 

[alebrewer]

3-5. I don't think we're out of the woods yet WRT inflationary pressure. According to FRED, it's starting to level off, but new housing starts have dropped off quite markedly as well. Combine that with (expected) positive consumer outlook, and I think demand should stay quite strong, resulting in continued (albeit less dramatic) upward pressure on home prices through 2025.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I have not voted or have an opinion yet. Thinking about it.

 

[Joe Flacco]

3-5. I don't think we're out of the woods yet WRT inflationary pressure. According to FRED, it's starting to level off, but new housing starts have dropped off quite markedly as well. Combine that with (expected) positive consumer outlook, and I think demand should stay quite strong, resulting in continued (albeit less dramatic) upward pressure on home prices through 2025.

View attachment 94684

What is your thought on the differences between the FHFA price index and the Census/HUD median sale price?

 

[Charles West]

Old folks and demographics rule in an inflationary environment. Housing will probably be up 5-10% in my Sacramento area market.

 

[alebrewer]

View attachment 94685

What is your thought on the differences between the FHFA price index and the Census/HUD median sale price?

I think the FHFA trend aligns with other macro indicators better than the HUD trend...

From Zillow HVI:

 

[Joe Flacco]

I think the FHFA trend aligns with other macro indicators better than the HUD trend...

From Zillow HVI:

View attachment 94686

Case-Shiller also looks like the other indicies. Just curious about it because what I observed during the 2018-2019 time frame was more similar to the median sale prices FRED than the indicies. But what I see these days is more similar to the indicies.

 

[chad hampton]

If they ended the waiver program, they would drop 25%. If they expand on like they are wanting to do, it will bloat the already inflated housing market another 20%. Those are your options.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I have not voted or have an opinion yet. Thinking about it.

Me too. I work in 2 markets. One is hyper-growing NW Arkansas where Walmart, their vendors (thousands btw) operate, and Tysons is huge. I don't see it dropping but I might think it flattens out.

OTOH, NE OK is agrarian, has lakes that attract retirees, relies upon the poultry business, and otherwise the main industry is Indian Casinos. And prices there are not increasing as fast as NWA, and unlike NWA, they did go flat for about 18 months when interest rates rose. One factor for the rural agri lands is the bust in marijuana growers. That business fizzled out like Emu and Ostrich farming 30 years ago. I am seeing them selling for about what they paid for the property before constructing the green houses.