Predictions for Housing Prices in 2025

[Joe Flacco]

Rumour is Howard Lutnick is buying Brett Baiers house for a new DC record price. Trump administration sales starting.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

What do you think will happen to the housing Market in 2025 Fernando?

You have assumed that Fern thinks.

 

[Tom D]

I can't read the fed rate, but that is the only thing that will affect our work. Right now, fed only dropped .25, were thinking .5 drop. If the budget isn't lowered there will be no young appraisers left from another year of nothing work. Us older ones can survive part time, although i'm transitioning back to fix and flip.

Getting different reads from the fed, heard that next year only .5 drop. Then heard maybe a couple of .5 drops.

 

[jay trotta]

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have sold 171,333 nonperforming loans, with a total unpaid balance of $31.4 billion, from program inception in 2014 through June 30, 2024, according to the Non-Performing Loan Sales Report released today by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. On average, the NPLs had a delinquency of 2.8 years and an average current loan-to-value ratio of 82%. More than 39% of the NPLs sold were in New Jersey, New York and Florida.

The report also surveyed borrower outcomes based on the 165,643 NPLs that were settled by Dec. 31, 2023. Of the NPL sales on borrower-occupied homes, 47% have resulted in foreclosure avoidance, which exceeded the rates for both non-borrower-occupied (44.7%) and vacant (17.7%). NPLs on vacant homes have had a much higher rate of foreclosure (75.7%) than that of borrower-occupied properties (28.9%) and non-borrower-occupied properties (31.8%). The average UPB of NPLs sold was $183,055.

Interesting peek into the potential rental market, bundled purchases by investors

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Getting different reads from the fed, heard that next year only .5 drop. Then heard maybe a couple of .5 drops.

The FED realizes that inflation is 'stickier' than they thought it would be. They are nowhere near 2%. Therefore, they cannot cut rates significantly nor rapidly without setting fire to inflation. That's why they are predicting only 2 rate cuts of 0.25% for 2025. But things change and all we can do is go alone for the ride.

I honestly think the high home prices are a bigger issue than the interest rate. The price of a house needs to return to the trendline, and we are a long way above it. I mean 7% interest was very "normal" from the 1960s-1990s. I never had a home loan that was less than 7% and my construction loan in 1991 was 11.75% and only dropped into the 10's when permanent financing kicked in. But my house cost under $50 a SF to build, not the $200/SF I see in a lot of houses that were literally doubled in cost in 10 years. And high house prices also impact increased taxes and increased insurance premiums.

A recovery in jobs and business activity will be slow but several things need to happen. First, lack of Russian and Ukrainian grain has not resulted in huge price increases in bread (which was a fundamental reason for turmoil 10 years ago in the "Arab Spring.") S. American has tended to make up the difference. So, if the Russo-Ukraine War is ended, it is a good thing for Russian exports of food as well as Ukraine. And volume will lower prices. Likewise, if DT can reduce the stranglehold of California on the farming practices over the entire USA, and reduce the cost of growing, selling, transporting and processing food, then inflation pressures can be tamed. And lower food costs will help restaurants lower prices and draw customers back in. The whole economy however is not geared for deflationary pressures. People already in at high prices suffer the most. First for FOMO - fear of missing out- they are now stuck with over-prices houses and cars. This will take a lot of time to unravel.
BTW this act has passed

How a Single State Regulation Can Impact the Entire Nation - TAG Global Food Safety Consultants

California is well-known for regulations that go beyond those of other states as federally set regulations. In fact, as stated in the Orange County Register,

achesonfoodsafetyconsulting.com

 

[Fernando]

Despite FED rate cut yesterday, mortgage rates went up today. Long term rates not going down because of Trump's policies.

 

[Dublin ohio]

Despite FED rate cut yesterday, mortgage rates went up today. Long term rates not going down because of Trump's policies.

Which policies are that

 

[TerryRohrer]

Which policies are that

Oh, come on! Mr. Science Guy can't even tell you why it gets light when the sun comes up!