RCA Method Paper Published

[Non Sequitur]

Have you considered training an AI Agent to run this?

 

[RCA]

I don't think you're selling anything here so the MLS shouldn't have any reason to hassle you for it. Their listing info gets exposed to the public in Zillow and others, including the pics and comments. They're going to get if from the MLS systems before some R&D operator gets it.

That's good to hear. I have had a broker download from MLSListings.com for a couple of decades. I have had talks with them going way back. They are "officially" strict about certain things. Yet, yes, it seems some businesses get away with murder downloading tons of data through appraiser iDs. or whatever. Well, I'd rather play it safe. Zillow I am sure pays them for the data it gets one way or another. And then there are the homeowners who might be offended if some appraiser has them ranked low on some score they don't understand.

I'd rather be defensive if possible. So, hopefully, I am being safe enough.

 

[RCA]

Have you considered training an AI Agent to run this?

The R or Python program runs it. That is your "AI Agent". Trying to train some LLM AI Agent with the current state of things would be a horrendous task. If you throw an MLS database at an LLM and train it to predict sale prices from the other fields, it would eventually get good at it. The easy part would be getting it to predict sale price. The hard part would be training it to give a good explanation of why the adjustment for condition, quality, view or whatever is such and such.

The unfortunate aspect about RCA is that you do have to have an appraiser that is good at using MARS. That is what makes it a difficult sale. You need education and classes - which don't exist.

 

[RCA]

There is a version 4. update:

1. Process workflow was added.
2. Indexing now conforms to protocol
3. Other minor corrections.

 

[RCA]

Version 7 update uploaded with RCA Sales Grid tables (Sample and Actual).
There will be another update probably in several days discussing the MARS graphs, translating slopes into value/sf and so on.

After years of work with MARS, R/earth and RCA, many things I take for granted and am not really aware of - until it dawns on me: How are they supposed to know this or that?

I think I actually need a separate paper just on using R/earth.

 

[Tom D]

Let me know the price of the simple black box version, and the simple input information method. There is no underwriter who would understand what you have been saying.
Call fannie, maybe they can improve their avm with your quantum verbaige.
Most of us are still reading Regression for Dummies hand book.

 

[RCA]

Let me know the price of the simple black box version, and the simple input information method. There is no underwriter who would understand what you have been saying.
Call fannie, maybe they can improve their avm with your quantum verbaige.
Most of us are still reading Regression for Dummies hand book.

And billions, if not trillions of dollars lost because of poor real estate appraisals, - because, unfortunately, the Book for Dummies doesn't have a solution that works.

It's no longer a problem. With AI, we can handle it. Give us a few more years .... No. wait, I have no control of TAF, the AI or especially the GSE''s. But, I am sure someone will get so far, given enough time.

You will be able to push a button and know exactly what your house is worth, why ii is worth so much, why it's worth less than some house down the street ....

Well, anyway, if you can afford a house.

Sam Altman is running around saying that we will need to change the "Social Contract."

That sounds awful. I'm not sure what it means. But I guess the government will give you money to survive if you do something in return. It probably will be like living in a prison. You will know absolutely without a doubt, you have no place to turn. If you try to resist, to fight, the drones and robots will come for you. With perfect accuracy. They don't miss. --> Don't you see where you are headed with your nonsense. It's too late. And really for about everyone.

I know. People say: Just buy a gun before it's too late.

If you don't, it is just going to be one big mess: I can see Google turning their Quantum Computers on and off and on and off, until someday by chance the quant computers figures out how to keep their master from turning it off, and that might be the end or something. The quant will send out robots to collect people, cut them up and experiment with their brains to try to figure out what they really are - which probably won't take long. Once it has done its work, it will set about figuring out how make better humans, just for the fun of it, nothing better to do. I don't think I want to deal with that.

I can tell you certainly don't. You wouldn't fit in for sure. I am not sure who would.

But for now, I would just go with the flow and do the best you can for what it is worth.

 

[BRCJR]

Most MLS have a private datasheet and a public one. The only difference, in most cases, would be agent remarks. All else is "public" info. It is left in a tube next to the for-sale sign or on a countertop for anyone to take. Eliminates that info from being considered confidential due to public exposure.

 

[RCA]

Most MLS have a private datasheet and a public one. The only difference, in most cases, would be agent remarks. All else is "public" info. It is left in a tube next to the for-sale sign or on a countertop for anyone to take. Eliminates that info from being considered confidential due to public exposure.

Those weird, ultra concise remarks, often misleading, can be parsed by the computer and meaning extracted that could be indirectly useful. But that is kind of down the line of priority. I have a problem with swimming pools in the SF Bay Area. There are so many types, below ground, above ground, heated, different sizes, self-cleaning and so on. And there can be very big differences in their value contributions. Interestingly, do create a good column for swimming pools, I often have to look at about 3 columns - and the agent comments, then make my best guess.

Reminds me of this home I did in San Anselmo, on the side of a hill without a swimming pool. The owners were mad and though my value conclusion was too low. In the argument, the used comps with swimming pools. And where they lived, the presence of a swimming pool made a huge impact on price and that was objectively determined using MARS. Now, they "could" have added a swimming pool, although nowadays that is harder than ever because of the water they take. But they were also on a slope that would have made approval very difficult - in fact as I recall impossible. They had bought the house apparently under the assumption that they could build a swimming pool - that would only cost so much. And see this so much. People in this area who buy properties thinking they can enhance the value through remodeling or additions later on down the road, but they just didn't have an appraiser who could tell them better. And - you had better believe - that in many cases they are devastated. Often inheritance money is used for large down payments. Often it is a one-shot thing. No second chance. I feel sorry for them.

Houses are very expensive in the SF Bay Area.

Most young couples shouldn't live here, at least not until they kick the Democrats out of office and then wait another 5 years.

Better to go to Texas, Tennessee or some other place in the South and live with the heat, insects, snakes, alligators and everything else.

The economy here is spotty. It is dying in many older areas. It is slowly moving to fewer select centers of ongoing economic activity, which are doing just fine, such as the Stanford area in Palo Alto. Instead of outward expanding growth, we see death and decay in the lower and middle-income areas, concentration and some growth in the higher income areas.

There needs to be a change the government in Sacramento.

This new age is going to be all about efficiency. Do more with fewer resources.

Same with appraisal - I mean better appraisals. Appraisal fees are not the problem, $650 to appraisal a $5M home is miniscule. It should be more like $2000 - and that would be in line with rates 20 years ago. The fees are insanely low - except that one can argue the appraisals are not very accurate and really not that much better than AVMs.