Recession

[Meandering]

House PASSES coronavirus bill by 363-40 in 1am vote as Trump and Pelosi back deal with paid sick leave, FREE testing and help for jobless after President declared an emergency and 'prayer day'
A coronavirus economic aid bill was passed by 363 votes to 40 by the House of Representatives in the early hours of Saturday morning after receiving support from President Trump who declared a national emergency because of the coronavirus on Friday afternoon. The sweeping relief package includes two weeks of paid sick leave and up to three months of paid family and medical leave as the coronavirus is now confirmed in 49 states. Trump threw his support behind the legislation which faced a vote in the House early Saturday morning, also announcing that this Sunday, March 15, was to be National Prayer Day. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier announced the deal with the Trump administration for an aid package from Congress that would provide free tests, sick pay for workers and bolster food programs.

 

[Tom4value]

Better pay attention to market indicators. Don't slack!

Just be careful. As an appraiser, you are dealing with just the housing market. Of all the markets you are talking about; stock, job, oil, monetary, housing is the slowest to change. Less than 2 months ago, we never even heard of covid-19. If you are talking about it in your reports now, you are treading dangerous waters regarding speculation over documentable data. Make sure you are not talking about something you can’t back up with facts.

 

[Meandering]

If the virus is impacting jobs,
and it is,
then it also impacts housing.
No speculation.
lots of quotes available from all sources,
because home owners also get their knowledge from the same sources.
It's okay to say media reports no one is hiring,
and many jobs are impacted, but,
the local hospital has help wanted signs in the lobby.

It's your job to reflect "typical" and "typical" is not traveling to DC to get precise numbers.
.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Appraisers can't rely on media reports.

If you see in the market that the number of sales and / or signed contracts are declining AND the number of active listings are increasing then it is cause for concern. Whatever is going on at the moment is impacting the market.

if you see number of sales and/or signed contracts declining AND the number of active listings declining then that means the declining number of listings is resulting in fewer sales. Nothing wrong with this scenario.

if number of closed sales and/or contracts are increasing and the number of active listings are increasing then that means the increasing number of active listings is resulting in more sales. Market is absorbing the increased supply. Nothing wrong with this scenario.

This stuff is factual information about housing market conditions. Saying things like jobs are going to be lost and recession is coming and stuff like that is speculation.

 

[Digger88]

i inspected all day today everyone was happy to shake hands with me but there is no purell in the stores. i take it some jerks are hording them then? nothing has hit my market yet.

 

[Meandering]

Appraisers can't rely on media reports.

If you see in the market that the number of sales and / or signed contracts are declining AND the number of active listings are increasing then it is cause for concern. Whatever is going on at the moment is impacting the market.

if you see number of sales and/or signed contracts declining AND the number of active listings declining then that means the declining number of listings is resulting in fewer sales. Nothing wrong with this scenario.

if number of closed sales and/or contracts are increasing and the number of active listings are increasing then that means the increasing number of active listings is resulting in more sales. Market is absorbing the increased supply. Nothing wrong with this scenario.

This stuff is factual information about housing market conditions. Saying things like jobs are going to be lost and recession is coming and stuff like that is speculation.

"Speculation"??

Have you seen all the shut downs?
Think those people have mortgages and will short sell to survive economically? or, do you think they will stay put and sweat it out, hoping their jobs open back up and save them?

But if you don't understand the importance of jobs to the residential market, then perhaps you could explain the price differences between DC and most of rural America?

Cause you know, if DC goes on lock down like Paris, and Italy, those folks won't be "at work" and making money to be assessed in the DTI ratios of which homes they will qualify to purchase with a mortgage, and will have to spend their cash, which isn't coming back to them.

Oh but hey,
that won't happen right?

Cause the only thing stopping it from happening is..................

A politician with a microphone.


.

 

[Joe Flacco]

"Speculation"??

Have you seen all the shut downs?
Think those people have mortgages and will short sell to survive economically? or, do you think they will stay put and sweat it out, hoping their jobs open back up and save them?

But if you don't understand the importance of jobs to the residential market, then perhaps you could explain the price differences between DC and most of rural America?

Cause you know, if DC goes on lock down like Paris, and Italy, those folks won't be "at work" and making money to be assessed in the DTI ratios of which homes they will qualify to purchase with a mortgage, and will have to spend their cash, which isn't coming back to them.

Oh but hey,
that won't happen right?

Cause the only thing stopping it from happening is..................

A politician with a microphone.


.

Yes. That is speculation.

What you describe might happen and might not. People might lose jobs or maybe not. People might not qualify for a mortgage or maybe not. All that stuff you are saying is hypothetical. If what you describe actually happens and people can't qualify for mortgages anymore then that shift in market conditions will show up in the number of closed sales, new contracts, and active listings data.

I mean if you want to say stuff like that on the internet for entertainment then whatever. I wouldn't be saying stuff like that in a appraisal report. If I see the sales and listings data being impacted then I might say something like "the number of closed sales in March 2020 are lower and the number of active listings are higher on a year over year basis. Then maybe state that the virus began going around in March 2020.

There is no way I am saying in a appraisal report stuff like everything is getting shut down, it could be like Paris or Italy, or people are going to jobs, people won't be able to qualify for a mortgage. No way I am saying stuff like that.

 

[Joe Flacco]

It's like Amazon HQ2. In the communities nearby, active listings declined by 50% on a year over year basis after the announcement.

I say something like the data shows that the number of active listings declined sharply on a year over year basis beginning Q4-2018. Amazon announced the location of HQ2 in Q4-2019. That's all I have to say about that.

I don't say stuff like Amazon coming, there is going to be 50k jobs, all these people will get paid a lot, all these people will need to buy houses, it's going to be like Seattle or Silicon Valley, its a lot more people that will qualify for a mortgage. No way I am going to say stuff like that.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I'm not even going to say active listings are declining as a result of Amazons HQ2 announcement because I don't if one is the result of the other. It could be and probably is but it might not be related. I make two separate statements 1) The number of active listings are declining sharply on year over year basis beginning Q4-2018. 2) Amazon announced location of HQ2 in Q4-2018.

 

[Eli]

Just be careful. As an appraiser, you are dealing with just the housing market. Of all the markets you are talking about; stock, job, oil, monetary, housing is the slowest to change. Less than 2 months ago, we never even heard of covid-19. If you are talking about it in your reports now, you are treading dangerous waters regarding speculation over documentable data. Make sure you are not talking about something you can’t back up with facts.

I agree. Just don't be looking at year over year like some people say. It's very fluid now. Like be looking at month over month. This thing has changed the whole landscape. You should have went to a few grocery stores where I live today. Empty shelves.