Recession

[Joe Flacco]

You can look at month over month but the number of active listings are always increasing month over month during this time of year along with number of signed contracts.

I just did a appraisal in McLean and looking at homes built after 2010 the number of active listings are building pretty substantially in the last three months. 81 sales in the last 12 months. 19 listings at the end of the prior 7-12 month period and 61 active listings as of last week. When I look closer at the data the increase is almost 100% result of builders going spec in the neighborhood. I see this increase in active listings as a result of builder optimism rather than virus or stock market crash fears.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Eli is right though.. we all need to pay attention to any shift in market conditions resulting from this event.

The last two weeks I have been asking the agents if they have been seeing that buyers are wanting to pause due to the volatility in equities and zero have said that is happening. But that was over the last two weeks. Things could be different starting now versus a week or two ago with the way events are unfolding. Maybe not. We will have to see.

 

[Digger88]

we are freaking out over 56 deaths so far because of the media hype machine. what happens when the 36 thousandth death is joyfully announced by the if it bleeds it leads media? thats called a NORMAL death amount for the flu. toilet paper and water selling out is silly. why is our tap water in danger of stopping?

 

[Digger88]

You can look at month over month but the number of active listings are always increasing month over month during this time of year along with number of signed contracts.

I just did a appraisal in McLean and looking at homes built after 2010 the number of active listings are building pretty substantially in the last three months. 81 sales in the last 12 months. 19 listings at the end of the prior 7-12 month period and 61 active listings as of last week. When I look closer at the data the increase is almost 100% result of builders going spec in the neighborhood. I see this increase in active listings as a result of builder optimism rather than virus or stock market crash fears.

mclean? you work in that ****hole? you better be packing or get out before noon if you value your life bro. conversely, washington highlands in SE dc is a joy to work in.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't want to say it is over reaction because better safe than sorry I guess.

But you know.. some appraisers here just can't wait to see the world collapse. Many fear mongerers.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I think I've been seeing "2007 all over again" posts since like 2016-2017 or something.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

you are treading dangerous waters regarding speculation

You better be mentioning it, because this speculation could come to fruition and nothing in USPAP says you cannot speculate about future possible impacts upon price. I do think that prices are more sensitivity now than say in the 1990s. After the great Recession, no one says any longer that "real estate never falls in price." In fact, my interpretation of USPAP says that we should discuss such potential impacts, just like we might discuss financial problems with a company that a "company town" depends upon. Detroit's woes were predictable when Japanese vehicles became popular. Now look at the city. There is nothing speculative about discussing the current state of concern over a potential bombshell event. No different than the Cuban crisis, a coming hurricane that might simply skirt the area, etc.

 

[Tom4value]

You better be mentioning it, because this speculation could come to fruition and nothing in USPAP says you cannot speculate about future possible impacts upon price. I do think that prices are more sensitivity now than say in the 1990s. After the great Recession, no one says any longer that "real estate never falls in price." In fact, my interpretation of USPAP says that we should discuss such potential impacts, just like we might discuss financial problems with a company that a "company town" depends upon. Detroit's woes were predictable when Japanese vehicles became popular. Now look at the city. There is nothing speculative about discussing the current state of concern over a potential bombshell event. No different than the Cuban crisis, a coming hurricane that might simply skirt the area, etc.

Of course, I agree with your point. We are responsible for commenting on future trends that may impact values and marketability.

My point is that it is too new. As of this writing, no jobs have been terminated, they are on hiatus. This fluster cruck is only 3 weeks old. There is a good chance that 3 weeks from now it will be over. Housing will be affected IF people are out of jobs and IF there are foreclosures from people not paying mortgage payments and IF there are not enough buyers to keep supply and demand steady. Don’t read the panic. Read the market.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

When in danger when in doubt,
Run in circles scream and shout.

The sky is falling!

 

[Meandering]

I think I've been seeing "2007 all over again" posts since like 2016-2017 or something.

3/15/2020

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program

"The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries," the Fed said.

www.cnbc.com

Fed cuts key rate below 1% for first time - Dec. 16, 2008

Fed Cuts Key Rate to a Record Low - The New York Times
Dec 17, 2008



Maybe, you're just not old enough to recognize all the same steps on the same path.


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