Kind of like I did on my over-assessed mobile home park?
The income statements show the average space rental at Daiichi Grove Senior Mobile Home park is about $437 per month. We have rounded that up to $450 per month for ease in calculations. The allowable expenses, excluding property taxes are about 25% of income. The capitalization rate range for parks in the competing area is 6% to about 12% with a very large majority in the 9% to 10% range. We have selected 9% as a reasonable, market derived capitalization rate and added 1% for the property tax component for an Overall Rate of 10%.
Using stabilized occupancy of 98 spaces at an average space rental of $450 per month, the annual potential gross income is $529,200 ($450 x 98 spaces x 12 months.) Using 25% expenses plus an additional 5% allowance for vacancy and collection loss, the total expenses are 30%. This leaves a Net Operating Income (NOI) of $370,440 ($529,200 x .70).
Dividing the NOI by the enrolled value calculates to a capitalization rate of .0735. This is well below the capitalization rated indicated by the market. Additionally, this calculation does not include revenue loss during the period of time required to lease up the 55 new spaces, nor does it include the cost to finish construction of the park’s planned recreational center, estimated at $400,000 (there is currently a foundation and design/plans to finish the building.) This structure is considered part of the Highest and Best Use because it is an amenity expected by the market for this type of project and necessary to attract and retain tenants.
It is our opinion that the as-is, Fair Market Value of the fee simple interest of the subject property as of January 2, 2010 is not more than $2,700,000. We considered the sales comparison approach in developing this opinion but did not consider it a reliable method due to the lack of park sales considered reasonably similar to the subject property. We did provide comparable sales listings and a table of sales of mobile home parks to show a reasonable sale price per unit and to extract a market derived capitalization rate to be used in the income approach.
We have used the income approach as is the best and most reliable method when there is insufficient sales data.
Referring once again to the Profit and Loss Statement (2008 – 2010) we have used the average of the three years in reconstructing the operating statement for purposes of a more consistent annual income and expense figure. Keep in mind that the attached income and expense statement is for the 43 occupied spaces as of the lien date.
Income and expenses 2008 through 2010:
Total rents collected: $686,202 Average: $228,739
Expenses:
Maintenance and repairs: $80,913 Average: $26,071
Utilities (after reimbursement): $21,153 Average; $7,054
Insurance: $22,692 Average: $7,564
Management: $24,574 Average: $8,191
Office expenses: $11,890 Average: $3,963
Professional fees: $41,201 Average: $13,734
Taxes and licenses: $23,519 Average: $7,839
Total Expenses: $225,942 Average: $75,314 (33% of income)
Per the income and expense statement the allowable expenses, excluding property taxes, are about 33%. We think a small portion of the expenses may be overstated or may not represent strictly allowable expenses so we have used 25% expenses for valuation purposes.
Income Approach calculations:
Estimated PGI at stabilized occupancy ($450 x 98 units): $529,200
30% expenses (includes 5% V&C loss): -$158,760
Net Operating Income: $370,440
OAR (Market rate of 9% + 1% tax load): $370,440 / .10
Value indication: $3,704,400
This value indication is based on stabilized occupancy. The subject property had 43 of 98 spaces occupied. A deduction for rent losses during absorption period for the 55 new spaces must be made to reflect the as is value of the property. To date the 55 new spaces have not secured a tenant. Part of the problem is attributable to decline in market demand, a lack of a recreational facility and a change in how manufactured home dealers place new homes in a park on consignment in anticipation of a buyer who will purchase the sited home and pay space rent. We must also make a deduction for completion of the parks recreation facility as it is a component of the highest and best use.
For purposes of valuation we are assuming that a well-funded buyer of the subject property would purchase new homes from a dealer and place them on pads where they would be marketed as finished homes available for purchase. Given that the cost of a new, average quality, two section manufactured home, including transportation from the dealer and on site finish construction would likely be about $100,000 or more we think a prudent buyer would implement this plan in yearly phases to control costs and risk. An absorption rate of 10 rented spaces per year is a reasonable forecast.
Year 1 10 occupied 40 vacant -$218,000
Year 2 20 occupied 30 vacant -$189,000
Year 3 30 occupied 20 vacant -$135,000
Year 4 40 occupied 10 vacant -$ 81,000
Year 5 50 occupied 5 vacant -$ 27,000
Stabilized year 6
Deduct cost to complete recreational facility -$ 400,000
Total deductions: -$1,075,000
As is market value: $3,704,400 - $1,075,000 = $2,629,400