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Rough Banking Seas Ahead?

Great point. But can a federally regulated financial institution keep that blue sky value on the books? I know there are ways around it but generally the exposure is based on real property, or am I wrong?
They can't keep the blue sky in the books but I've been asked the question many times. Why would someone spend $700,000 on a small addition on an industrial building when it only adds $200,000 in value? I end up writing a brief explanation in the back of my report highlighting business value vs. real estate value. The book value should also be the appraised value the way I see it. If the bank asks me to appraise a $3,000,000 construction project and I come in at $2.5 Million then the loan is based on the appraised value.
 
IAT is a Regional Bank ETF and it seems to be doing pretty good. Banks don't send out 1099's when they pay less than $10 in interest on checking accounts and they take the customer's money and get 5% in money markets I guess. I don't really know how they make their money, but my barber's son started off as a assistant golf pro and then went into banking (international) and lives in one of the best Portland area neighborhoods on a lake, so banks must be doing something profitable. I bought the ETF when everyone was saying banks would get crushed when the Fed started raising rates. And it pays a decent dividend.

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They can't keep the blue sky in the books but I've been asked the question many times. Why would someone spend $700,000 on a small addition on an industrial building when it only adds $200,000 in value? I end up writing a brief explanation in the back of my report highlighting business value vs. real estate value. The book value should also be the appraised value the way I see it. If the bank asks me to appraise a $3,000,000 construction project and I come in at $2.5 Million then the loan is based on the appraised value.
Great explanation. It's out of my wheelhouse but the last bank I worked for (under$1B in assets) meetings included both sides and were mostly commercial oriented. Anyway, the way I remember it is pretty much the way you explained it, the commercial reports included different values but we could only lend on and book real property values. With that in mind, the list posted may not tell the full story and some banks may be in a better position than others. But even if the borrowers can continue to pay, how long can the banks extend prior terms of the notes? At some point extending COVID rate terms at current cost of money will just flat out eat the banks alive.
 
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When looking at restaurants, you have to look at the construction value that also translates into business value. If I lose $500,000 in construction value but gain $1,000,000 in revenue, then I'm ahead.
Not necessarily, as it is ultimately about profits. Restaurants are a thin-margin business, so an additional $1,000,000 in revenue might translate to $50,000 in profit, if they are successful. Even the fast food restaurants are starting to run into trouble in passing along higher costs now. I know what you mean with the business decision vs real estate decision conundrum, though.

Not sure about other appraisers here, but I'm starting to see some very early cracks in the foundation. Maybe it is just in my area, but the industrial market is softening a bit, restaurant closures are accelerating. Values still seem to be holding up, but that seems to only be due to the low supply of available listings.
 
Not necessarily, as it is ultimately about profits. Restaurants are a thin-margin business, so an additional $1,000,000 in revenue might translate to $50,000 in profit, if they are successful. Even the fast food restaurants are starting to run into trouble in passing along higher costs now. I know what you mean with the business decision vs real estate decision conundrum, though.

Not sure about other appraisers here, but I'm starting to see some very early cracks in the foundation. Maybe it is just in my area, but the industrial market is softening a bit, restaurant closures are accelerating. Values still seem to be holding up, but that seems to only be due to the low supply of available listings.
I don't disagree with you. If you see a lot of deferred maintenance in a restaurant, be suspicious.
 
I'm hearing whispers of extend and pretend ending, and this is the first post I've run across in LinkedIn but expect many more (and FWIW I highly doubt anyone can get a commercial loan on multiple properties at 6% right now, I suspect someone one is trying to rope him):


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From LinkedIn:

Large Banks with Large Exposures to Uninsured Deposits (Q2 2025 Version)

Below is a screen showing the 74 banks with total assets greater than $10 billion (out of 157 total) and where the ratio of uninsured deposits to total deposits is greater than 40 % as of June 30, 2025.

2024's first failed bank (Republic First of PA) was only #87 on my Q4 2023 list at 51.5 %, so (most) all of the banks on this list are at serious risk of a depositor run should they exhibit any weakness, as from CRE exposures or unrealized losses on securities. Each of the three large banks that failed during 2023 (Silicon Valley, Signature, and First Republic) relied heavily on uninsured deposits, which ran as problems emerged at each bank. Any bank that relies heavily on uninsured deposits is at risk of a liquidity crisis should any material weaknesses become public or should they seek to raise new equity capital.

Eight banks with more than $100 billion in assets are above 50%.

- State Street Bank ($372 billion): 101.5 %. (This is what they reported.)
- Bank of NY Mellon ($356 billion): 94.3 %.
- Citibank ($1.834 trillion): 80.4 %.
- Northern Trust ($170 billion): 78.4 %.
- HSBC Bank ($170 billion): 68.8 %.
- JP Morgan Chase ($3.789 trillion): 57.4 %.
- BMO Bank (254 billion): 50.4%
- U.S. Bank ($671 billion): 50.3%

An additional nine banks with more than $50 billion in assets are above 50%.

- UMB Bank ($71 billion): 67.4 %
- CIBC Bank ($60 billion): 64.6 %.
- City National Bank ($94 billion): 60.9. %.
- Banco Popular ($61 billion): 58.5 %.
- BOKF ($51 billion): 53.6 %
- East West Bank ($78 billion): 52.2 %.
- Comerica Bank ($78 billion): 52.6 %
- Synovus Bank ($61 billion): 51.1 %
- Frost Bank ($51 billion): 50.8 %

Also shown is each bank’s uninsured deposits as a percentage of liquid assets (cash plus investment securities). Banks with ratios greater than 100 % are at high risk from a run by uninsured depositors. I will be posting a list ranked by this measure shortly.

It is important to note that several of the banks on this list, such as BoNY, State Street, and Northern Trust, are so-called "trust" banks that have a very different business model from most other banks that leads them to rely almost entirely on uninsured deposits, but this will not protect them if there is any reason to lose confidence in their capital adequacy, asset quality or liquidity.

These statistics are based upon my calculations using publicly available Call Report data downloaded from the FFIEC's Central Data Repository as of Aug. 15, 2025. Source: https://lnkd.in/et4jMyNA

Many more posts on other banking data during next few weeks.

Most of these lists will be available for download at FAU's Banking Initiative Website: https://lnkd.in/eA8hsQuu
 
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