Selling Guide Announcement (SEL-2024-07)

[Joe Flacco]

Those graphs appear to be the "overall trend" of "all" the properties in your chosen market area. This is the delemma the OP is having....based on their uploaded MC, it appears they grabbed "everything" in the market area. We don't know if the subject is a 2 bedroom "starter" home or a 5 bedroom custom home. Each would most likely provide a different trend indicator. The starter homes could possibley indicate an increasing market while the custom homes sit with extended DOM and have price reductions thus, decline.

My post (#56) is their discription of what they want now.....a different % indicator monthly or quarterly (whatever the statistical data shows), for the comparables depending on what the data purports. You should have no problem as you're very proficient with Redfin Data.....Those low fee, AMC, change the client name no problem types.....are going to have an awakening...

If you narrow down the data then you have even more fluctuations because you have fewer data. If you are going to narrow it down like that then the only reasonable way to look at it is paired sales.

If you have 5 starter home sales in one period and five starter home sales in the next period, and in the first period there 3 updated homes and in the second period there are 2 updated homes, then that median might be 20% different between the two periods.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Oh, so you want to narrow it down to only updated starter homes?

In the first period you have three updated starter homes, two are 1500 SF and one is 900 SF. In the second period you have two updated starter homes and one is 1500 SF and the other is 900 SF.

You still get a different median.

 

[Surf Cat]

If you narrow down the data then you have even more fluctuations because you have fewer data. If you are going to narrow it down like that then the only reasonable way to look at it is paired sales.

If you have 5 starter home sales in one period and five starter home sales in the next period, and in the first period there 3 updated homes and in the second period there are 2 updated homes, then that median might be 20% different between the two periods.

This is what the 1004MC asks for.....narrowing down the data. This is what the OP utilized for their market trends..... CU became more advanced so....fannie retired the MC. There's better, more advanced options available.

I've used the "overall" market trend just because of what you stated.....not enough "comparable" data to determine a reliable trend. You need to scrub the data though....get rid of the anomolies. Everyone is going to have to get with the program and level up if they want to keep appraising......like Fernando.

 

[Joe Flacco]

This is what the 1004MC asks for.....narrowing down the data. This is what the OP utilized for their market trends..... CU became more advanced so....fannie retired the MC. There's better, more advanced options available.

I've used the "overall" market trend just because of what you stated.....not enough "comparable" data to determine a reliable trend. You need to scrub the data though....get rid of the anomolies. Everyone is going to have to get with the program and level up if they want to keep appraising......like Fernando.

Give me an example of the search criteria that you might use that you think is what the 1004 mc asks for.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

my trend analysis typically looks about the same whether I'm modeling 'adjusted' sales or 'raw' sales.

But you have to "show your work" when your judgment is simply just as good or better than the computations used. FNMA really don't trust the appraisers, OTOH, they've run off a lot of good appraisers with Fanniespeak and babble.

 

[Surf Cat]

Oh, so you want to narrow it down to only updated starter homes?

In the first period you have three updated starter homes, two are 1500 SF and one is 900 SF. In the second period you have two updated starter homes and one is 1500 SF and the other is 900 SF.

You still get a different median.

It's "competitive to the subject" for the MC. If the subject is closer to 1500 SF, then the 900 SF doesn't belong. Of course you'd get a different median......

 

[Joe Flacco]

It's "competitive to the subject" for the MC. If the subject is closer to 1500 SF, then the 900 SF doesn't belong. Of course you'd get a different median......

Ok so then you are down to two 1500 SF updated homes in one period and one 1500 updated home in the next period, or one 900 SF updated home in one period and one 900 SF updated home in the next period.

What if both of the 1500 SF updated homes in the first period have. 2 car garage and the one 1500 SF updated home in the next period has a two car carport?

The median is still different.

What are you going to do now?

 

[Surf Cat]

Give me an example of the search criteria that you might use that you think is what the 1004 mc asks for.

That's a question for the OP......they're the one with over 200 "competitive" sales to the subject in their MC...... I don't use the 1004MC for my market analysis any longer....I used to all the time like everybody. Many appraisers didn't follow the directions of that thing..... Which is why you'd see on the top of page 2 "there are 200 comparable sales in the neighborhood ranging from $630K to $1.250,000. LOL

 

[Joe Flacco]

That's a question for the OP......they're the one with over 200 "competitive" sales to the subject in their MC...... I don't use the 1004MC for my market analysis any longer....I used to all the time like everybody. Many appraisers didn't follow the directions of that thing..... Which is why you'd see on the top of page 2 "there are 200 comparable sales in the neighborhood ranging from $630K to $1.250,000. LOL

My range looks like that.

The output still makes more sense than trying to narrow it down to the perfect comps which don't exist.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I can't even find three perfect comps for the sales comparison approach. What is supposed to go in the 1004 MC.