Slow Down?

[Deleted member 152047]

Real Estate is State Specific and some States will experience strong prices because of the outflow from California- Just follow the moving van data because most are heading to Arizona-Texas and Parts of the South. Hell we spent the last 65 years creating bureaucracies from hell and now we want to come to your low cost States so we can implement Mandatory Solar, low flow toilets on resales , carbon monoxide detectors, paint your streets white so they put out less heat in the summer and finally place a big carbon tax on you because after all we love you and want to protect your health & safety : LMAO

Yet people are still willing to pay ridiculous sums of money for houses in California. That is mind-boggling!

 

[Bob Ipock]

The only thing erratic is the stock market. The holiday retail sales figures were way above what was expected, the jobs situation keeps getting better and wages are increasing.

Housing starts are down, pending sales are down, interest rates up, the stock market is unstable, banks are laying off especially mortgage people, GM is closing plants....hose are just a few of the erratic things in place.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Housing starts are down, pending sales are down, interest rates up, the stock market is unstable, banks are laying off especially mortgage people, GM is closing plants....hose are just a few of the erratic things in place.

You need to stop reading mainstream news headlines.

 

[glenn walker]

Yet people are still willing to pay ridiculous sums of money for houses in California. That is mind-boggling!

You are correct we like high prices because we always think there going higher and since many were born and raised here we have no idea how to deal with snow, ice, humidly or serious storms. Lucky Baldwin was bringing in folks on his private train in the eighteen hundreds and selling them land in the Pasadena area and one potential buyer was bitching and moaning about the high prices. Lucky Baldwin looked at him and said hell I'm selling you the weather not the land.

 

[Carnivore]

Real Estate is State Specific and some States will experience strong prices because of the outflow from California- Just follow the moving van data because most are heading to Arizona-Texas and Parts of the South. Hell we spent the last 65 years creating bureaucracies from hell and now we want to come to your low cost States so we can implement Mandatory Solar, low flow toilets on resales , carbon monoxide detectors, paint your streets white so they put out less heat in the summer and finally place a big carbon tax on you because after all we love you and want to protect your health & safety : LMAO

Spot on post. It boggles my mind, they Flee one state because of all the reasons you stated...then they arrive here and first thing they notice is how low are taxes are and start rubbing their hands together coming up with all kinds of new ideas on how to spend money...just by raising taxes a little bit...then a little bit again and again and again. Go Home Yankee and west coaster ...we don't your new fangled ideas around here. We get a lot of Refugee from NY, PA, Cali, All with the same attitude. They are like a outburst of Locust!

 

[Joe Flacco]

Spot on post. It boggles my mind, they Flee one state because of all the reasons you stated...then they arrive here and first thing they notice is how low are taxes are and start rubbing their hands together coming up with all kinds of new ideas on how to spend money...just by raising taxes a little bit...then a little bit again and again and again. Go Home Yankee and west coaster ...we don't your new fangled ideas around here. We get a lot of Refugee from NY, PA, Cali, All with the same attitude. They are like a outburst of Locust!

If you don't like it then you just need to move to where they are not going. Maybe you guys can all gather together in Alabama or Mississippi or somewhere.

 

[Raven59]

This downturn has teeth to the bite. A friend who oversees multiple states for a huge lender states branch banking will soon fade and all those employeed at these facilities will be kicked to the street. That means loan officers and a source for work. Online banking has changed the use of these facilities and their need greatly dimenished. The lender has currently trying 6-8 non appraiser products. I’ve heard for 34 years we will be replaced. I believe that time has come for those depending on GSE type work.

 

[Carnivore]

If you don't like it then you just need to move to where they are not going. Maybe you guys can all gather together in Alabama or Mississippi or somewhere.

Tempting..for plan B but we all own guns...so plan A has to be tried first.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

sure what to make of it, there might be another recession around the corner.

A slowdown in housing might not be a good indicator of recession, rather simply pricing people out of the market. The buyer is hit by the double whammy of higher prices and higher interest resulting in ballooning payments. The gas crisis of 1973 threw a monkey wrench in building here, and higher interest rates didn't help. No one had gas to even go look for a house. In early 1980s high interest rates begin to fall and housing boomed, but it stalled about 1986 and caught a bunch of builders here with high inventory and no buyers. In 1994, housing slowed, it impacted the housing market but had little impact upon general economy. Likewise, the dotcom bust seriously impacted housing in Silicon Valley but only temporarily. This slowdown is pretty normal. I honestly believe that land and home prices are too high, but likely not to drop significantly. It rarely does, although land prices collapsed in 1980 with the Russian wheat embargo, and the Great Recession saw prices fall just like in the depression. But from day one of this country, land prices have increased, with those hiccups and I predict will continue to rise. My fear is that land gets so expensive that we fall into a European style "ownership" where you simply cannot afford a new house so extended families live in homes that have been in the family for generations.

I recall a friend of mine who went to Norway in 1980 and marveled at the homes prices there for $400,000 which were comparable to a Tulsa home of $100,000. That Tulsa home is now worth $400,000...but the owner probably isn't making 4x the income they were in 1980.

 

[J Grant]

This downturn has teeth to the bite. A friend who oversees multiple states for a huge lender states branch banking will soon fade and all those employeed at these facilities will be kicked to the street. That means loan officers and a source for work. Online banking has changed the use of these facilities and their need greatly dimenished. The lender has currently trying 6-8 non appraiser products. I’ve heard for 34 years we will be replaced. I believe that time has come for those depending on GSE type work.

I don't think we will be across the board replaced, rather marginalized. Making appraising for GSE work not a sustainable field for full time income.The days as a professional level of earnings on res lending mortgage side are on life support. It might limp along a # of years with FHA/rural/complex assignments but the convergence of forces ( hybrids, waivers, alternate valuation products, AMC low fees , an influx of trainees with lowered education requirements )... has reached the tipping point.

No surprise to some of us the president is not ushering in the economic miracle promised. Best outcome would be to stop causing chaos and shows stability of leadership..And that the fed lowers rates..even a sliver lower would impart buyer confidence. If we are lucky will see pent up home buying this spring, and get a good season or two before the next slow down. Keep fingers crossed but have a backup plan.