Slow Down?

[Michigander]

The downturn hit me personally. I was laid off a lending staff review job with others (not performance based, at least related to all my performance reviews in the past). I know of a number of appraisers who were laid off, not just the lender I worked for, but others. Only one of those folks I know found a job. I stopped looking and am trying to be a fee appraiser again. Although I had saved up six months of mortgage payments, that period is almost at an end, and business is very slow to pick up. Have got on numerous fee panels, revamped a website, done tons of word of mouth campaigning and internet marketing (as well as boots on the ground meet and greets) and it is still very slow. Not a newbie in the business and not a newbie in my market, since I have been working it for 34-years in one shape or another. \

Really the problem with being a staff person with a lender is that the position is tenuous at best. At least with being independent, there is work you can pick up hither and yon. Even if it is way more sporadic than one would like.

So, downturn has affected many folks. BTW my husbands company did a big layoff including both of his bosses. He's a writer, not an appraiser. He was spared thank goodness, as it would have been a much harder place to land if we both lost our jobs, but something is just not right. Artificial intelligence is out there, and it seems to be coming for many of our jobs...

 

[ucbruin]

"Artificial intelligence is out there, and it seems to be coming for many of our jobs..."

AI growth is exponential....
Probably won't take too long to replace human appraisers....

On the emotional side I understand the denial....
On the intellectual side I don't understand why many appraisers deny it....
After all appraisers are trained to be logical and unbiased....

 

[Michigander]

"Artificial intelligence is out there, and it seems to be coming for many of our jobs..."

AI growth is exponential....
Probably won't take too long to replace human appraisers....

On the emotional side I understand the denial....
On the intellectual side I don't understand why many appraisers deny it....
After all appraisers are trained to be logical and unbiased....

Do we deny this is happening? There are some simple problems AI can handle, some complex things that it cannot. In the end, buyers buy emotionally and AI is logical. Appraisers are also logical, but can pay attention to appeal. Suspect in some ways AI can as well.

What we will see most likely, is increased complexity in the work we do get. With too many appraisers competing for too few assignments, many will take on work that is complex at below average fees just to have something to do. We can move into sales, but that is also changing. We can move into writing, but that is also changing. Most directions we turn AI is taking hold.

Are the jobs left going to be service oriented or tweaking the computers? My son is in training to become an electrician, hope robotics won't take that one over as well. Think appraisers are realistic that AI is real and there are ramifications. But at the same time, no AI can do a better job than the appraiser who knows their stuff and spends the time doing the research and development. Problem is, that takes time and costs money, and for the lending community, good enough is good enough.

 

[J Grant]

I read this somewhere-"The 21st century , when efficiency replaced humanity"

Says it all - our values and priories are killing our humanity turning people into low paid accessories to big corporations- the corporations benefit from technology or AI to replace or marginalize workers. Historically , cycles when nations turned to populism were meant troubled times.

 

[ucbruin]

Do we deny this is happening? There are some simple problems AI can handle, some complex things that it cannot. In the end, buyers buy emotionally and AI is logical. Appraisers are also logical, but can pay attention to appeal. Suspect in some ways AI can as well.

What we will see most likely, is increased complexity in the work we do get. With too many appraisers competing for too few assignments, many will take on work that is complex at below average fees just to have something to do. We can move into sales, but that is also changing. We can move into writing, but that is also changing. Most directions we turn AI is taking hold.

Are the jobs left going to be service oriented or tweaking the computers? My son is in training to become an electrician, hope robotics won't take that one over as well. Think appraisers are realistic that AI is real and there are ramifications. But at the same time, no AI can do a better job than the appraiser who knows their stuff and spends the time doing the research and development. Problem is, that takes time and costs money, and for the lending community, good enough is good enough.

I can see how my previous post came across appearing to push back on yours opinion regarding AI....
I actually agree with you regarding AI so I apologise if my post came across differently than intended....
But to be honest, I don't believe appraisers are suppose to be emotional when doing their jobs....
I'm not saying it doesn't happen....
I'm saying it shouldn't happen....

 

[Raven59]

The dynamics of the lending segment will continue to change with the more skilled and seasoned appraiser pushed off the radar. Although work and opportunity will exist, this group will need to refocus and retool to survive. I believe there are many opportunities but we will need to teach people what we can bring to the table. The newer generation will need to concentrate on reinvesting in themselves and treating it as a profession and not a job. Not all, but many newer appraisers have stopped expanding their skill set through education and different types of work products. By doing so they have inevitably written their own path to extinction. We can preach why the public needs us, but I really don’t believe it matters to anyone these days. The this is good enough, almost disposable attitude will prevail until another S&L and 2006-2008 event happens again. Only then will it matter and last only until someone bails is out. It’s our time to define the profession and stop letting people define us. Explains to lenders why they need us is like telling the IRS the tax error is something they did wrong. The lending train has left the station...

 

[Carnivore]

I received a Review Assignment request the other day. See Photo I looked up address and it was a condo, located in Uptown Charlotte. OK, no problem because on a review you have no way to access building or unit. i submitted my quote which I was low but i knew a lot of the stuff about the Condo Tower already. Apparently it had been broadcast and was accepted by someone else. Probably fee!

I wish I had received the order...would been nice piece of work, very little driving around etc. probably quoted to high..usually the case..but we all know that reviews can turn into a nightmare.

Here is the interesting part. This was a review for purchase money appraisal. Condo was listed and already sold in MLS, just under List price($385,000) When i looked up the sales available their were a ton of sales(7-10). 1185 sf, 2br 2ba. in the tower. I literally could have opined a value just looking at the listing for the sale. Not always the case in these Uptown Towers because view, side of building etc can have an effect.

That's what got me thinking. Why would they order a review? Surely the appraiser did not depart from the Complex?

Editorial: In these Condo Towers in uptown charlotte you might think Artificial Intelligence might do as well as you or me. i am not so sure of that. they probably could get close in range but thats about it. Maybe over time trends would show up, etc... There are some features in these towers that not all units have, Underground Parking is one of them. Storage units in the Parking deck area. Parking slots and storage areas are owned and can be transferred to other units by a seller to a buyer. West views are not as desirable as east views due to Summer heat and Blazing setting sun on west cvf patio's. Corner units are desirable.

OH, well. i am bored! Been doing stuff around house and yard. Temp is about 64 degrees I should have took my street glide out for nice cruise around town

 

[Paul Kinuthia]

The downturn hit me personally. I was laid off a lending staff review job with others (not performance based, at least related to all my performance reviews in the past). I know of a number of appraisers who were laid off, not just the lender I worked for, but others. Only one of those folks I know found a job. I stopped looking and am trying to be a fee appraiser again. Although I had saved up six months of mortgage payments, that period is almost at an end, and business is very slow to pick up. Have got on numerous fee panels, revamped a website, done tons of word of mouth campaigning and internet marketing (as well as boots on the ground meet and greets) and it is still very slow. Not a newbie in the business and not a newbie in my market, since I have been working it for 34-years in one shape or another. \

Really the problem with being a staff person with a lender is that the position is tenuous at best. At least with being independent, there is work you can pick up hither and yon. Even if it is way more sporadic than one would like.

So, downturn has affected many folks. BTW my husbands company did a big layoff including both of his bosses. He's a writer, not an appraiser. He was spared thank goodness, as it would have been a much harder place to land if we both lost our jobs, but something is just not right. Artificial intelligence is out there, and it seems to be coming for many of our jobs...

Yikes! I guess its a high time plan B kicked into high gear

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

I don't believe appraisers are suppose to be emotional when doing their jobs....

Only in a nasty bathroom or cat lady infested house....stinging tears in my eyes.

Efficiency can create inefficiencies. The oil exploration mindset is shale gas is a mining problem. Geology doesn't matter. In reality, geology makes all the difference in the world. Wild predictions about gas wells drilled 10 years ago lasting thirty plus years are crazy. 77 wells were slated for plugging and abandonment in Arkansas...meaning their life span was < 10 years. Like saying a mobile home has the total life of a mansion.

Will a computer know the difference? Will a computer testify in court? Sign a 8283? Or even identify the most rudimentary elements of functional or external obsolescence? Hopefully as the herd is winnowed and the elders return to room temperature the smaller cadre of appraisers will be willing and able to extract higher fees. And to do so directly from the client not an AMC.

 

[ucbruin]

Only in a nasty bathroom or cat lady infested house....stinging tears in my eyes.

Efficiency can create inefficiencies. The oil exploration mindset is shale gas is a mining problem. Geology doesn't matter. In reality, geology makes all the difference in the world. Wild predictions about gas wells drilled 10 years ago lasting thirty plus years are crazy. 77 wells were slated for plugging and abandonment in Arkansas...meaning their life span was < 10 years. Like saying a mobile home has the total life of a mansion.

Will a computer know the difference? Will a computer testify in court? Sign a 8283? Or even identify the most rudimentary elements of functional or external obsolescence? Hopefully as the herd is winnowed and the elders return to room temperature the smaller cadre of appraisers will be willing and able to extract higher fees. And to do so directly from the client not an AMC.

Unless I've misinterpreted your oil well example....
Doesn't the example support the idea that humans maybe no better than AI at making predictions?

Or was it AI that made the "wild predictions"?