Slow Down?

[Terrel L. Shields]

I do appraise full time and have been for years. I said that I feel for appraisers whose only source of income is appraising,

JG thinks appraisers aren't "full-time" if not working 12 hr, 6 days a week. I cut back in retirement but farm, and do consulting geology...howbeit those might be considered "part-time"...

 

[Joe Flacco]

There are other factors at work other than the typical seasonal slow down.

 

[J Grant]

There are other factors at work other than the typical seasonal slow down.

Agree...identifying those factors ..I hope once again people can complain about being slammed, but there has been an accelerated set of factors chipping away at res lending appraisal that at some point reach a critical mass.

Part time vs full time...might not be the hours per se but does a person rely on appraisal as primary income source or not..if one relies on it full time income would be quite a feat to do it with part time hours!

 

[djd09]

Appraisal Waivers
Appraisal waivers, offered through Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) and powered by Collateral Underwriter® (CU®), are offers to waive the appraisal for eligible transactions.

https://www.fanniemae.com/singlefamily/property-inspection-waiver

move along. nothing to see here.

high need rural areas are included.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Big changes are coming. Like it or not new forms+hybrid is going to change everything for res appraisers.

 

[djd09]

What do forms have to do with slow downs?

 

[djd09]

©2018Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. September 2018 1 of 2

Home Inspection Alternative to Appraisal in High-Needs Rural Areas

https://www.fanniemae.com/content/fact_sheet/rural-high-needs-appraisal-waiver-fact-sheet.pdf

and don't forget disaster area waivers.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Right now the main factor for slow down is seasonal and rates trying to end a 30 year trend of declining rates.

New "forms" or data standards, is what brings hybrids into mass use and acceptance. That's probably going to be the beginning of the end for most res appraisers that do mortgage appraisals and don't want to do hybrids.

 

[J Grant]

Right now the main factor for slow down is seasonal and rates trying to end a 30 year trend of declining rates.

New "forms" or data standards, is what brings hybrids into mass use and acceptance. That's probably going to be the beginning of the end for most res appraisers that do mortgage appraisals and don't want to do hybrids.

Agree.

And for those that want to do hybrids, it will mean a substantial reduction of earnings. Any economic or seasonal slowdown aside, at what point is a critical mass reached from the (not good news) of accelerating changes... a % of appraisals replaced by waivers, a% to be replaced by bifurcated, a % going to influx of trainees from reduced requirement , a % impacted if deminimus goes from 250k to 400k... By themselves none of those trends might be a death rattle, but the cumulative result of them gives me that vibe...combined with the fact low pay AMC model is getting more entrenched, not less . .

Imo we are not at that critical mass yet but are getting closer... a year or two away ? That is barring some miracle change of policy not counting on that at least not anytime soon if ever

 

[Michigan CG]

I have been on this forum for years and have seen these same comments every year during the traditional slower winter months.

Yes, every year.

In 2016 everyone with a pulse made a lot of money with interest rates and re-fi work. Anyone with any common sense knew that the re-fi business had to end soon.

I went back to my last eight weeks of 2016, 2017 and this year.

2016 v 2017 -10%
2017 v 2018 +22%
2016 v 2018 +10%

So my last eight weeks of this year are 10% better than 2016.

In 2017 for the entire year I was down 14% vs. 2016.
In 2018 I am up 15% over 2017 for the whole year.
In 2018 I am up 1% over 2016 for the whole year.