Slow Down?

[ucbruin]

Here too. Not optimistic about a recovery ,I was always optimistic in prior slow downs, hope my pessimism is misplaced ( is that optimism lol )

Do you have any concerns that it will take longer for your home to sell than it may have taken if you listed in 2017?

 

[Paul Kinuthia]

Do you have any concerns that it will take longer for your home to sell than it may have taken if you listed in 2017?

There are fewer and fewer buyers out there especially considering the rising interest rates. I've spoken with several agents who tell me that its taking longer to sell a house and even then, they have to drop the price several times to attract a buyer. If you look in MLS, days on market is increasing. I think the market is slowly changing into a buyer's market and most sellers still think its a seller's market like it has been over the last few years. When sellers wake up and realize its no longer a seller's market, they will start dropping prices, especially if they must sell and this might lead us to another downturn. There are only so many qualified buyers out there and I think most of them have been tapped. I think we might be heading into a protracted period of very low activity.

 

[J Grant]

Do you have any concerns that it will take longer for your home to sell than it may have taken if you listed in 2017?

Yes. If it does not sell in a few months I will rent it instead.

 

[J Grant]

There are fewer and fewer buyers out there especially considering the rising interest rates. I've spoken with several agents who tell me that its taking longer to sell a house and even then, they have to drop the price several times to attract a buyer. If you look in MLS, days on market is increasing. I think the market is slowly changing into a buyer's market and most sellers still think its a seller's market like it has been over the last few years. When sellers wake up and realize its no longer a seller's market, they will start dropping prices, especially if they must sell and this might lead us to another downturn. There are only so many qualified buyers out there and I think most of them have been tapped. I think we might be heading into a protracted period of very low activity.

Maybe the fed will wake up one day, look around and realize the short term uptick of jobs from cutting taxes was nothing more than that. and the housing market tanking can tank the economy just as it did in 2008. An idiot can see an interest rate cut is in order but our govt is run by sub idiots

 

[Fnbpos]

We sit at the confluence of rising rates and the holiday season. Only a few want to bother with the details of a mortgage during the holidays. As we all know, refi volume has been hit hard, but if you look at the stats, there is refi activity in all interest rate climates; its never at 0% activity. So while interest rates have been on the rise, sale activity continues to carry on...at these higher rates. We are in a new cycle and we need it to play out. This is where it was an advantage to be "nice" to your Realtors (even if you had to fake it); to actually encourage them meet you at the property; to get your face out there; to talk shop; ALL to take advantage of slowdown periods. So now that properties are taking longer to sell (relatively speaking); guess who calls us for pre-listing appraisals. So, anyway....we need sales at these higher rates to continue....then what happens when the economy eventually softens ? (it will...it always does)… why of course rates go down....and don't your think every bank and loan officer will be calling every single buyer from the last 1-2 years....bam ...refi's Now I realize, some of you are not in favorable locations (South Florida for example grows significantly every year with large number of international buyers), but this is a cycle we all should have seen coming. Time to expand the territory perhaps, or create some new profiles or up the customer service...for those of you that actually practice it.

 

[Paul Kinuthia]

Maybe the fed will wake up one day, look around and realize the short term uptick of jobs from cutting taxes was nothing more than that. and the housing market tanking can tank the economy just as it did in 2008. An idiot can see an interest rate cut is in order but our govt is run by sub idiots

I think a rate cut might be a good idea, or even a pause in rate hikes (they voted to hike them again) but the feds are trying to stifle inflation but in doing so, they might cause a recession. We do elect the idiots so at the end of the day we get the government we deserve.

 

[James Micozzi]

https://appraisersforum.com/forums/threads/is-anyone-slowing-down.214619/

https://appraisersforum.com/forums/threads/unprecedented-slowdown.219145/#post-2816238

Every year people post that it so slow from around Thanksgiving through February or March. Real estate is seasonal. Everyone take a breath and relax already with the doomsday predictions.

That being said, I understand the angst some appraisers feel especially if appraising is their only income source. Fortunately for me, that is not the case.

 

[bnmappraisal]

This is where it was an advantage to be "nice" to your Realtors (even if you had to fake it); to actually encourage them meet you at the property; to get your face out there; to talk shop; ALL to take advantage of slowdown periods. So now that properties are taking longer to sell (relatively speaking); guess who calls us for pre-listing appraisals.

Now you're talking common sense Fnbpos

I do a decent amount of pre/post listing private assignments. And where do they come from? Referrals from agents whom I've worked with in the past. Many come from agents I figured I would NEVER hear from again.

 

[djd09]

high prices, higher rates, stagnant wages, appraisal waivers, 10 years of ZIRP. it is not like last time.

now click your heals together three times and repeat 'There is No Place Like Home' and imagine the tornado swirling.

 

[Gobears81]

I think a rate cut might be a good idea, or even a pause in rate hikes (they voted to hike them again) but the feds are trying to stifle inflation but in doing so, they might cause a recession. We do elect the idiots so at the end of the day we get the government we deserve.

The problem is that the "cure" to the last recession was (among other steps) to lower rates as low as possible. The economy has improved in the 10-years since, but the recent federal tax cut is a form of stimulus that was not seen by economists as being needed, given the growing economy. The resulting risk of over-heating in the economy is the root of inflation. Raising rates is a necessary step for the Fed to take in response, and it's not in itself something that will cause a recession at this point. What it will hurt, however, is the real estate sector, as many property owners don't want to buy new as they have a mortgage that is at a rate below what could be found in today's market.
I've said it before on here, but appraising is a profession that thrives in recessionary times, and vice versa. It's not a surprise that as the economy is strong, work for appraisers is slower.