Slow Down?

[J Grant]

A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.6 percent.

The above from the linked article...this is the "real " economy that people live with, f wages increased 3.2 %, inflation increased as well, and wages were below par to begin with. Likely home prices will decline if interest rates stay the same....

Many of us on res lending side have been slow to dead the last few months which could mean pent up demand for spring buying...or not.

 

[Joe Flacco]

That article says rates are expected to be in the low to mid 5s for 2019, so roughly the same as where they are right now. Not 4%

Correct, I was not disagreeing with someone who said they were going up, I was agreeing with them. Someone else had said they were not and I challenged that persons contention by providing proof. Via the Link.

The 30 year fixed is back down to 4.5% as of yesterday. I don't see it back over 5% this year. I think odds of 4% > odds of 5%.

 

[Michigan CG]

...many of us on res lending side have been slow to dead the last few months.............

You keep trying to blame the economy based on your personal views but facts don't support your opinion. The AMC business model has changed to a model of bidding for a lot of work. How many of your clients now seek a bid for all assignments vs. in the past?

 

[TERPLANDLORD]

A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.6 percent.

The above from the linked article...this is the "real " economy that people live with, f wages increased 3.2 %, inflation increased as well, and wages were below par to begin with. Likely home prices will decline if interest rates stay the same...something has to make home buying affordable when no substantial wage growth materializes. Confidence in the future is a decider for people whether to buy or stay put...and the jittery recent events Wall St, , GM closing, global retraction, volatile leadership makes people cautious...many of us on res lending side have been slow to dead the last few months which could mean pent up demand for spring buying...though a surge of orders would bring much needed relief, long term outlook we all need to think of that as well.

Nobody knows or has any control of the long term outlook in almost every field. Technology effects almost all white collar and blue collar jobs. The real estate world is a roller coaster. With mortgage originations at an 18 year low even Corelogic is bleeding red ink. Sure they can hire "staff appraisers" now but they are laying off staff. There's not even enough work to pay "staff appraisers". Then the market rebounds with a vengeance and they have no staff. Then they hire tons of staff and the market slows so they have to layoff again. Rinse repeat. The company gets a bad review for potential hires do to a chaotic and unsecure work environment. Real estate appraisal on a national basis is still unmanageable without boots on the ground able to expand and contract with resilience.

 

[djd09]

wages increased 3.2% but home prices have increased 10, 20, 30, 40 percent. the math doesn't work.

 

[ucbruin]

A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.6 percent.

The above from the linked article...this is the "real " economy that people live with, f wages increased 3.2 %, inflation increased as well, and wages were below par to begin with. Likely home prices will decline if interest rates stay the same....

Many of us on res lending side have been slow to dead the last few months which could mean pent up demand for spring buying...or not.

I don't know about others....
But purchases have never been a large portion of my appraisal assignments....
Refi's have always been the lion's share of my work....

 

[Carnivore]

wages increased 3.2% but home prices have increased 10, 20, 30, 40 percent. the math doesn't work.

Thats a Nationwide Stat. Depends on your specific locale Currently in Gaston County you can work at pizza joints, hamburger slingers and they are getting $12.00 per hour. Some a little less some a little more.

Here is the Difference I think.... My area is growing in population ...since the population of the US is not increasing all that much must mean that Some areas MUST be bleeding population. Think California, NY, PA and there are many others. and Others area Like NC have growing Populations.

 

[Michigander]

You keep trying to blame the economy based on your personal views but facts don't support your opinion. The AMC business model has changed to a model of bidding for a lot of work. How many of your clients now seek a bid for all assignments vs. in the past?

One of my best direct lending clients went to a bid system. I have "won" only one of those in the ten or so I have had sent to me. Most of the AMCs that I have no signed up with are bidding, and I have not "won" one of those. We even have real estate agents in on the bidding for private work lately. Doesn't matter how well you know the market for them, just the lowest and fastest, and they are not even the client. Crazy stuff.

 

[djd09]

bidding is a dividing tool.

 

[TERPLANDLORD]

wages increased 3.2% but home prices have increased 10, 20, 30, 40 percent. the math doesn't work.

0 percent rates for 8 years were explicitly to artificially reflate the stock market and real estate. Now rates up but they can't go very far. Rates are still way below what they would be if there were no government insurance and complete control of real world rates. With 22 trillion in debt the government can't afford to pay much higher bond rates so the Fed is perminently handcuffed to a degree. The unprecedented and undisciplined childlike rounds QE are going to be a permanent fixture until there is some sort of collapse. The last 2 administrations took the easy way to kick the can down the road and now we are in the "roach motel" of QE....Easy to get in ... Impossible to get out. The Trump plan of making the USA the most attractive/safest place in the world for making/protecting money and the number 1 energy producer is probably the only long shot possible way to unwind what the fed has done but not likely.

But for us 8 years of zero rates has led to the lowest mortgage volume in 18 years( after the Clinton Dot-Com stock collapse / recession) now that rates are modestly rising. A modest rise in rates is a shock when zero percent was institutionalized for 8 years.