The Difficulty of becoming an Appraiser Today

[J Grant]

Very interesting, one side current appraisers are complaining about low volume and low income, another side new folks are keeping jump in. From last year, I saw more posts for new coming appraiser than before. Does public don't know this is a dying business?

Imo, people are basing decisions about appraising on the way it was even a few years ago in the 2 year busy time frame that ended end of 2022 - they fail to realize that so many refinanced at the super low rate that alone is killing refinance activity and sales= that will last a decade, IMO, and inflation will not permit a super low rate for years, even if rates lower to pick up volume - combine that with Fannie /Freddie decisions to reduce the use of appraisals and combine that with the entrenchment of AMC;s and the outlook on the residential side is grim - ( in general)

I have nothing personal to gain from discouraging people,e they should be aware of how it really is and then if they still want to pursue it, well they were warned -commercial is a bit better, perhaps much better, but most of the queries seem to be about res license -

 

[Fernando]

AI is vastly over rated. I don;t think AI will take as many jobs as people think, however the decisions have already been made at Fannie and Freddie to divert a portion of valuations away from appraisals and the profiteers will just one to increase that trend - and that will cut into volume even in a busy cycle.

My daughter is at the right age to take advantage of AI. It's a new frontier and many businesses still don't know how to take advantage of it.
Yesterday my daughter was invited to a luncheon to discuss and share ideas with CEOs and other managers in how to use AI.
It's a new field with many opportunities.

 

[J Grant]

I have a fellow appraiser who is younger (in 40s) and he has the mojo in appraising which I have lost.
He's willing to go further and probably lower fees in getting more appraisal work. When young, they have more energy and drive to succeed. Good for them.

He is wasting his mojo, then, working for low fees and going long distances. Res appraising due to AMC dominance with low fees keeps an appraiser like this in business but taht energy if he was smart could go into training for something better -

 

[J Grant]

My daughter is at the right age to take advantage of AI. It's a new frontier and many businesses still don't know how to take advantage of it.
Yesterday my daughter was invited to a luncheon to discuss and share ideas with CEOs and other managers in how to use AI.
It's a new field with many opportunities.

The Computer techs and billionaires like to scream it is the new frontier, from what I have seen of it is just some more efficiency and it can do some rote writing and tasks - AI or no AI, there are still much better options than res appraisal for young people now -

 

[Fernando]

He is wasting his mojo, then, working for low fees and going long distances. Res appraising due to AMC dominance with low fees keeps an appraiser like this in business but taht energy if he was smart could go into training for something better -

When he started out he was very "hungry". Not much assets, renting in low income area, and drove junkie car.
He's doing much better with an EV car and busy during these times.
I admit when I started out, I undercut my appraisal fees to get my foot in the door to build my client base. Once established, I raised my fees back to market as well as my confident attitude.

 

[Charles West]

I'd say at the most residential appraisers have a couple of years left before the algorithms are firmly in place and the human aspect of analyzing market behavior is displaced. It won't matter how complex the market is or how unique it is, artificial intelligence will be close enough to minimize risk and that is all anybody cares about.

 

[Fernando]

I'd say at the most residential appraisers have a couple of years left before the algorithms are firmly in place and the human aspect of analyzing market behavior is displaced. It won't matter how complex the market is or how unique it is, artificial intelligence will be close enough to minimize risk and that is all anybody cares about.

Don't know about non cookie cutters.
Many times after I see a property, I say to myself "A computer can't do what I can do. I'm goood."

 

[J Grant]

I'd say at the most residential appraisers have a couple of years left before the algorithms are firmly in place and the human aspect of analyzing market behavior is displaced. It won't matter how complex the market is or how unique it is, artificial intelligence will be close enough to minimize risk and that is all anybody cares about.

Algorithms already are "firmly in place", and they can not do anything more than they do now, which is estimated MV in no more "accuracy than an appraisal does - that is why an AVM< has confidence scores-people will always be needed to analyze ( the famous data is not knowledge statement )- however the policy end of res lending has gone to the profiteers and has reached the tipping point of making it a far less viable career on the res lending side.- risk is all a bunch of BS, the lender who makes the loan has no or little risk since they sell to an investor - the taxpayers have the risk and therefore it should never be up to just the lenders and profiteer stakeholders - and there is an affect on market prices from skewed valuations that is not about risk -

The starry-eyed AI will solve all reminds me of when the internet started was supposed to usher in an age or enlightenment - we do have access to more information and can research etc but overall the world is less safe and fake news/propaganda and fraud etc is perpetuated along with the ben efits -more profit flowing to fewer at the top -

 

[Fernando]

Algorithms already are "firmly in place", and they can not do anything more than they do now, which is estimate MV in no more "accuracy than an appraisal does - that is why an AVM< has confidence scores-

Years ago, Zillow wasn't that accurate but it's getting better and better in valuation.
Appraisers can narrow that confidence range since we can verify the most up to date information on subject.

 

[Fernando]

It's like I see an address (knowing the location in town) and seeing info like bedrm count, bathroom count, and square footage and looking at "similar" sales, I can get a wide range of where the value should be. Computers do the same thing.
As a human, I need to actually see the property and its details and location and differences with comps to get a point appraisal value. Computers can't do that accurately yet.
It depends on the user. If user is comfortable with a wide value range, then appraisers will be in trouble.