The Difficulty of becoming an Appraiser Today

[ucbruin]

Don't downplay the impact that the internet has had on 1st world countries....
The Good and The Bad....

 

[Zoe]

Don't know about non cookie cutters.
Many times after I see a property, I say to myself "A computer can't do what I can do. I'm goood."

Yeah, but you know your market.

 

[Zoe]

He is wasting his mojo, then, working for low fees and going long distances. Res appraising due to AMC dominance with low fees keeps an appraiser like this in business but taht energy if he was smart could go into training for something better -

I assume you are writing Mr. Chopra of CFPB. Proof read your email 10 times before you send it. He would like to hear from you.

 

[Zoe]

If Chopra did not want to hear from you, he wouldn't have asked for your input.

 

[Zoe]

The AVMs of today are nowhere near as powerful as what is coming down the pike in very short order. And risk is everything, just ask an investor.

Everything changes in a drop in prices. It will happen. That is when many will be in trouble.

 

[Zoe]

Hi I am newly licensed appraiser and wanted to state my experience and opinion on becoming an appraiser in todays time and market.

First the current model of entry into getting licensed is antiquated and terrible. The quality and range of your education is dependent on your supervisor. And just because someone can do the job does not mean they can effectively teach the job. If your supervisor gives you only the "cookie cutter" appraisals and teaches you in only the methods you need to pass the test you will get your license but won't know enough to compete in the job market. All you will know well is paired data analysis and a one trick pony can't make a show. On that note, the supervisor may never teach you any marketing skills beyond getting on AMC panels. As of right now with the current slump in inventory no AMCs are adding you to their list and even if they do you won't receive or win any bids no matter how low you go. Add in that while you are learning you make practically nothing.

Once out in this world of appraisal with low volume you don't have the option to do AMC work because you can't get it and you can't get clients because you were never taught how to get other clients. If you want to do the appraisals that a lawyer needs for the different areas in it is required in the legal system you have no foundation for this work as you learned only to write appraisals for lending purposes. Any change from lending work puts you even further behind since, at least from what I have been told, it is a different animal.

Gone are the appraisal firms that would bring in someone new and pay them to type up reports and learn the business. That is mostly not needed anymore since technology has allowed appraisers to write reports faster and with less effort. With this reduction in support staff and the government putting the AMC in the middle why would someone want to start an appraisal firm. You can fill in the bulk of statements by clicks or various forms of cut and paste in the report software and the AMC handles front and back end management.

Any advice for getting up and running in this business and broadening my analysis tool box would be greatly appreciated. I don't want this career to die on the launch pad.

Sir or Madam, I just heard the national average on wages is around $35/hour. That is with benefits Sir or Madam.

Wages are increasing nationally.

How much money do you want to spend to make $500/week?

 

[Charles West]

It did not change the world massively - we are still mired in wars and fighting, and the world faces the same problems as before, only magnified in some ways - the Internet now allows fake news and lies to proliferate with sources not verified and identified hidden, etc.

It makes things more convenient and faster, and we can research things online instead of going to a brand order from Amazon instead of driving to a local store. Wow and wow to that.

The billionaires who profit from the internet and next AI want to fill people into believing it will make their lives better - it is a trade-off - and it accrues power and partially the owner of information into fewer hands.

It added an estimated 3 trillion in productivity gains in the last 10 years, that is my definition of massive but then I am not afflicted with the class envy bug like you seem to be.

 

[FBN2007]

Forget appraising. Learn to estimate repairs and hire contractors to rehab fixer uppers. I used to work 80hrs/week to make about 120K as an appraiser. Once I learned how to find and rehab fixers, I work 20hrs/week to make 200K.

 

[RCA]

I see robots as mostly replacing inspections - and home inspectors. In fact they will do both at the same time. They will have a detachable appendix (if you prefer, appendage or attachment - but we need a new word for this) for crawling around crawlspaces and the attic. They will have eyes that see all wavelengths of light from infrared to UV. They will be able to detect heat and moisture. They will probabably be able to detect various kinds of insects and identify them, they will spot mold and cracks. They will if needed take and store surface swipes for fungal, bacteria and chemical contamination. They will move swiftly and carefully between all floors and rooms, taking pictures and measuring at the same time. The will have an attached drone to fly inside or outside as needed to take further measurements and pictures. They will communicate everything via WiFi to a central computer that will then process the information, fast enough to provide instructions to the robot to do any further checks. Such a robot will drive itself to the next house.

I am very sure, that an absolutely thorough house inspection and measurement, including photos for a 2,000 sf home, will take less than 20-30 minutes. Depending on driving time, it can inspect 20+ houses/day, 140 houses/week. Of course in rural areas, much less. Because it doesn't have to take time to do reports, it can do nothing but boring inspections 100 times better than most appraisers.

You will be able to get within the appraisal report, all of the inspection details of a typical appraisal and home inspection, - plus much more.

The MARS regression and AI system on the central computer will be using advanced MARS, probably Python, and no doubt AGI to finish off the reports. Clients will be charged for all information they order in the format they desire. However, the inspection will most likely. be a full inspection that collects all data for statistical analysis to build regression models and improve neighborhood definitions and so on and so forth. That is to say, regardless of what the client orders, the robot will likely take the opportunity to gather all the information that it can reasonably collect, for further analysis or reuse.

There will be appraisers or rather "Valuation Engineers" to review and audit the whole process and randomly selected reports (at least). The difference is that the Valuation Engineers will have to be well versed in all the analytical and report methods used --- which will take years of education and experience.

Initially people will have to help out and accompany robots; but, eventually, the robots should be able to handle everything themselves. Nonetheless a "central bureau" will be in constant contact with the robots and have access to what they see and hear. So, they can be monitored remotely. Robots will likely have advanced security features to help prevent theft, but it's hard to say how far the engineers and manufacturers will go in that respect.

As a consequence of the above, the GSE labor force will be largely gutted out and the remainder transformed. AMCs will disappear, the the survival of current appraisers software companies becomes very questionable.

Reports will become largely highly reliable and objective!

So, I would say this is 10-15 years out.

Everything will be driven by accuracy, objectivity and efficiency.

- In any case, once certain political obstructions are removed....

All of the manpower and money being spent on discrimination and diversity issues is a waste. These issues will largely dissipate with the advent of AI and robotics. The cause is any case futile. In fact, the effort now being spent by many (including myself) to undermine the current appraisals system, is mostly wasted effort: TAF, the AI and most the rest of the current appraisal infrastructure is doomed to die within 10-15 years, or at least undergo a major transformation, ....

Should add that computers can handle a large number of tasks in parallel - since many years. The robot could detach multiple small drones and robots to take pictures and measurements in parallel. The robot would communicate with its mini robots and drones via WiFi located in its car/van, which would communicate with the mother computer via 5G/6G …. So you can begin to understand just how infinitely more productive the robots can be than even the most skilled human appraiser.

Still, no matter how well the robots handle detailed tasks, I submit they must always be managed by competent and well-educated humans who can better grasp the intricate and dynamic web of high-level connections.

 

[J Grant]

It added an estimated 3 trillion in productivity gains in the last 10 years, that is my definition of massive but then I am not afflicted with the class envy bug like you seem to be.

The productivity gains benefit the CEOs and top shareholders; they do nothing for the workers- whose jobs are trimmed because fewer can pump out more productivity..

I want to see the working class and professional class prsper, the upper-level managers and billionaires don;t need any more help -

What is going to happen when drones replace Uber and Amazon delivery drivers and more and more jobs disappear - idk, but we humans better figure out what we value more, humanity or gains in efficiency -