This is a pretty niffty detailed chart for finding time adjustments, we are done.

[Sadie]

Yes indeed, most of us are already doing that - can always add another fancier graph - but this chart is different than what you are referencing - with respect-

I don't think a graph is required.

 

[Mike Ault]

In theory, if you can make year to year market change adjustments, then you can apply the same technique to make month-to-month market change adjustments. In actual practice, however, I doubt that sufficient data exists to make "reliable" month to month market change adjustments in many markets. It would not be possible in almost any market that I appraise in, and I would not sign my name to such adjustments, no matter who's software is spitting them out. That's the problem when you let PhDs issue "studies" and people try to turn them into marching orders. I predict that this "month to month controversy" will fizzle out once the practicalities are examined.

 

[Fernando]

Time adjustments are most difficult. Not only you have to see if it's seasonality or there's really a market condition change.
Many times it's difficult to see. Most clearly I saw in drastic price change was beginning of Great Recession.
Thus during normal economic conditions, it's best to get most recent sales and not do time adjustments.

 

[Mike Ault]

Time adjustments are most difficult. Not only you have to see if it's seasonality or there's really a market condition change.
Many times it's difficult to see. Most clearly I saw in drastic price change was beginning of Great Recession.
Thus during normal economic conditions, it's best to get most recent sales and not do time adjustments.

Seasonality is a market change. And it should be adjusted for.

 

[Surf Cat]

As long as you're the cheapest and the fastest for the AMC's..... you can check stable all day long.

 

[Fernando]

I remember prices were rather stable most of 1990s and then in 1998, prices picked up. After that prices continued to go up until the Great Recession.
Before then, I never experience a such a drastic down market here except in Southern CA.
Even when there was a big earthquake in 1989, prices went back up quickly.
Earthquakes don't scare us.

 

[Fernando]

As long as you're the cheapest and the fastest for the AMC's..... you can check stable all day long.

When in doubt, check Stable. Works for me.

 

[Dublin ohio]

Seasonality is a market change. And it should be adjusted for.

Around here seasonality not only show a change in volume but also a change in the type of properties selling. From about March to the end of October you have family size homes selling (my markets are highly school system driven) From November to February activity slows and is mostly more modest homes for those without school age children or those that are downsizing. Almost impossible to compare the seasonal markets.

 

[Fernando]

In the past best time for me to buy would be near the Holidays and right before the Super Bowl. During that period, you can get the best deals.
Since 2022, I had no urgency to buy any properties. Appraiser intuition.
This year I looked at the trend since 2022 and prices have declined slightly but with high mortgage rates, not good time to buy real estate.
When there are signs of price increasing significant, I'll be ready to buy for maximum profit.

 

[weird_limbs]

This free tool can give you a "pretty nifty detailed chart" (not that you need it) and time adjustments linear and non-linear.

https://the-adjustments-app.streamlit.app/

You can run it for a bunch of other adjustments, and even create a customized AVM with your own data. Watch the demo videos, it is kinda cool stuff.