Three days in a row. Different GLA than advertised.

[RCA]

Would I ever do this kind of work, i.e. churn out 1 crappy appraisal report/day , 360/year, to earn $150,000/year. No. I would go insane with boardom and monotony. It would be completely unsatisfying work. It is just not my thing.

I would rather do programming or statistical analysis.

 

[Fernando]

Would user need to establish the OV at the midpoint of the adjusted value range and then determine the variance in both/either direction? If so, then what? Compare it to the ???? Kinda simultaneously wondering how the accuracy of the OV could be determined---trolly, absolutely no way to do so because a benchmark for accuracy doesn't exist [although Fernando is willing to certify absoute accuracy with his "F" stamp, and RCA comp selection.is irrefutable...]. But I'm probably digressing or trippin--as the former student who needed 50 weeks to finish a 10-week stats course. Lol

I was working on the sales grid and with general adjustments, I came to a rather narrow range of value.
The next step with fine tuning/massaging and learning details of each comp, I can narrow down the value point within 1-2% of the value range.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I was working on the sales grid and with general adjustments, I came to a rather narrow range of value.
The next step with fine tuning/massaging and learning details of each comp, I can narrow down the value point within 1-2% of the value range.

The narrow range I mentioned was after adjustments...

 

[alebrewer]

AB, I usually consider the width of the adjusted value range as a critical factor, i.e., the more narrow it is, the more obvious that the price point is. Question: is there a mathmatical expression to describe the width other than in absolute dollars, e.g., from $xxxx.o to $zzz.o, or $.....00? Can the width be described in relative terms, perhaps a ratio of some sort, or a variance percentage?

confidence intervals.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

confidence intervals.

Would the user define the "quality" of the interval in context with his or her prior experience, or against app industry standards?

 

[alebrewer]

Would the user define the "quality" of the interval in context with his or her prior experience, or against app industry standards?

The quality of the interval is the interval itself. A confidence interval is a statistical measure - for instance, a 95% confidence interval is a statistical measure that says, "95% of the time, you can expect the true mean to fall within the stated range."

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

The quality of the interval is the interval itself. A confidence interval is a statistical measure - for instance, a 95% confidence interval is a statistical measure that says, "95% of the time, you can expect the true mean to fall within the stated range."

Ok, but does an industry standard exist for an acceptable percentage. I presume not in oder not to usurp appraiser self reliance but that leaves a huge gray area among practitioners.

 

[alebrewer]

Ok, but does an industry standard exist for an acceptable percentage. I presume not in oder not to usurp appraiser self reliance but that leaves a huge gray area among practitioners.

Unfortunately, at least on the resi side, the industry is accustomed to the misconception that point values do exist, so confidence intervals aren't used too often (other than for AVM's). Generally, though, a 95% confidence interval is pretty standard for statistical analysis.

 

[J Grant]

Unfortunately, at least on the resi side, the industry is accustomed to the misconception that point values do exist, so confidence intervals aren't used too often (other than for AVM's). Generally, though, a 95% confidence interval is pretty standard for statistical analysis.

How could you have been providing a point value for years as an appraiser if you believe that it is a misconception that point values do exist?

 

[J Grant]

A confidence interval exists in statistics. As Alebrewer said, a 95% confidence interval is a benchmark that the answer of X number is acceptable (for whatever the purpose is )

An appraisal market value opinion of X $ number point value ( derived from a range ) should have credible evidence behind it, and a narrative reasoning given for it that makes sense. Appraisers do not provide a "confidence interval", however, anyone using the appraisal is free to do so. A MVO is a value model to allow a client to make a decision for lending or other purposes.

The issue in an appraisal is that everting is linked together, which would be true of any valuation method for Real
property. 'If the comps are poorly chosen, if it mathematically looks nice with a tight value range, the opinion of market value will be skewed- as measured by more credibly selected comps or better developed adjustments. Which is why the appraisal field has reviews -