Upcoming Changes To Real Property Appraiser Qualifications

[The Warrior Monk]

Totally agree! Some also forget that residential mortgage lending is only a part of the appraisal business. I have said it before but again, the city needs to extend a water line, a sewer line, widen an existing road, build a new road, build a new fire station, police station, expand the water treatment plant, the sewer treatment plant, the school district plans to expand or build a new school campus, the state highway department is building or expanding, the Federal government is building or expanding, there are folks with tax problems, there are folks that have too much oil/gas/timber/lignite, etc. on their land and need an appraisal. Barbie and Ken are getting a divorce, on and on and on. There is more business than any of us can take care of if you just look! AMCs suck....no need to look there ! LOL

Ditto.

Don't forget that market value isn't the only value on some of those properties either. Many times municipal buildings need insurable value estimates. The same goes for various privately held properties, such as private golf clubs, etc. I recently consulted on a major clubhouse that was on the National Register of Historic Places, where the client felt the national firm that gave the insurable value estimate was too low.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

What risk? There is no risk. The government will always be there to bail us out. :new_snipersmilie:

Maybe. But it will come to the point where other countries will dramatically devalue the dollar or not accept it. Since we're not a closed economy, interest rates will spike.

 

[Delta85]

There will be appraisers to complete work for good clients.

I'm looking farther than next month or in 2 years. Who will be completing all these reports when the volume grows greater than the number of appraisers available?

 

[Delta85]

One report a day at $400 is $100,000/year gross.

Are you advocating a 1 report per day schedule? I thought you were Mr. Quality?

 

[Delta85]

This tells me you don't understand supply and demand.

I do. I also understand that there may be a real drought of appraisers to complete reports, even at double the fees.

The average appraiser is middle age right now. Currently very few new appraisers are entering the field. Once the 4 year degree kicks in it will grind to a hault. Current appraisers are either gonna be dying or retiring in the next decade. Others are bailing out. More will bail out as the economy improves.

By the time we get to a point where appraisers are in desperate need and fees go up there will be too many reports for the appraisers left to complete. This will leave lenders no choice but to invent some new way to close the loans, effectively eliminating appraisers which is what they want anyways.

It will be impossible to ramp up, train, and set free enough appraisers to keep up with demand once things become enticing. It's not like training machine operators.

 

[Delta85]

There will never be a shortage of appraisers. The Real Estate lobby is to strong and Congress will just pass laws that will except BPO's from agents for all types of mortgage transactions.

I see something like this IF a shortage of appraisers occurs. Loans have to close. They will invent a new way to approve them. Brief statements from realtors or something else will be rubber stamped.

 

[J Grant]

I see something like this IF a shortage of appraisers occurs. Loans have to close. They will invent a new way to approve them. Brief statements from realtors or something else will be rubber stamped.

I DOUBT lenders will accept a brief statement from realtors...you sound very out of touch with the business somehow. More likely, if there is such a shortage, they'd use an AVM type product with an in house appraiser review of it.

There will always be staff appraisers, as some people just need that corporate structure and steady paycheck, ( and some college grads would like to align themselves with a large company, and go through a training program there).

The rest of it would be"real" appraisals, either private res appraisals for private money lenders or non GSE lenders, or more complex high end appraisals, and then all the commercial work and other types of work. Appraisers will either be anaylists working on staff or retainer with computer aided models, or field appraisers able to make decent fees because yes, there will be a relative shortage of field appraisers.

The profession will change and adapt, the way it is now is in transition on the res side.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

I see something like this IF a shortage of appraisers occurs. Loans have to close. They will invent a new way to approve them. Brief statements from realtors or something else will be rubber stamped.

Prior to licensing, loans used to close with statements just like that, and I've personally seen some of these one-page, incoherent "appraisals." Of course, rates were approximately 13% in those days. The double-digit rates will come back if that type of risk is added to the loan.

The market is looking for less risk right now, not more.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

I'm looking farther than next month or in 2 years. Who will be completing all these reports when the volume grows greater than the number of appraisers available?

New people will come into the business when they compensation becomes appropriate given the amount of work.

 

[Delta85]

I see something like this IF a shortage of appraisers occurs. Loans have to close. They will invent a new way to approve them. Brief statements from realtors or something else will be rubber stamped.

I DOUBT lenders will accept a brief statement from realtors...you sound very out of touch with the business somehow. More likely, if there is such a shortage, they'd use an AVM type product with an in house appraiser review of it.

There will always be staff appraisers, as some people just need that corporate structure and steady paycheck, ( and some college grads would like to align themselves with a large company, and go through a training program there).

The rest of it would be"real" appraisals, either private res appraisals for private money lenders or non GSE lenders, or more complex high end appraisals, and then all the commercial work and other types of work. Appraisers will either be anaylists working on staff or retainer with computer aided models, or field appraisers able to make decent fees because yes, there will be a relative shortage of field appraisers.

The profession will change and adapt, the way it is now is in transition on the res side.

What happens when there are little no appraisers? I'm talking about a doomsday scenario. Right now we have an oversupply of appraisers but that number is dwindling by the month. I'd bet very few new appraisers, other than sons and daughters, are entering the profession now. Once the 4 year degree thingy kicks in that's all she wrote. You can't ramp up the work force like a machine shop once you run out of appraisers and fees and TAT improve. That will take time and during this period lenders will complain that they have to close loans. They will seek and get approved alternate ways otherwise loans won't close and the flow of money trumps all other issues.