Value For Solar System.

[Meandering]

Funny, but I read the thread title and thought, "finally, a discussion of quantum mechanics. It was bound to happen sooner or latter."

Okay, I now need a new office chair.

Thanks Calvin.

 

[Calvin the Airedale]

An all you need to know primer on solar systems:

They Might Be Giants - Why Does the Sun Shine? (The Sun is a Mass of Incandescent Gas) - YouTube.

 

[KD247]

... I think you need a CG and an advanced degree in astrophysics in order to appraise a solar system. ...

Reminds me of a comment that was made in response to the Tiger Mom article last year. Sure the kids are math and music prodigies, but do they know how to change a tire?

Sure, I can work up a 3D spreadsheet with a flip table that analyzes the expected savings from a solar electrical system, but do I really have any idea what someone would pay for it? Response to lender: "Does the scope of work include a detailed analysis of the solar system?" "Pull my finger."

 

[prasercat]

RE: Value For Solar System...


I think you need a CG and an advanced degree in astrophysics in order to appraise a solar system.

BTW, how many planets?

I believe it is said that an Englishman's home is his Castle, so does not the home make him a king? And if that Englishman owned a Solar System above his Castle, would it not make him a god? And would not the Englishman believing he truly was a god in his home be priceless?

Can we talk about the Higgs Boson now? You know, the so called "god particle".

 

[prasercat]

The whole quandary is that single family home values or contributory values for such are not primarily determined by income and "savings".

Dow will start mass production of solar PV roofing shingles in early 2013. I can foresee all exterior elements will be producing electricity within a few years; such as, siding, windows, maybe even the zero-scape astro-turf, the swimming pool, the driveways, the patios, even our clothing - Sheesh!

All this power generation from the sun will just be expected. However, I could see in the beginning that the surfaces of a home not exposed to sufficient direct sunlight will use matching non PV generating materials until it is just so cheap to incorporate this feature or utility that it becomes the only kind available.

Therefore, it will simply be looked upon as we look at home construction materials currently, in terms of physical depreciation and functional obsolescence. Yes, it generates power, but all such similar construction materials will do the same; although newer materials will generate more than older. It's all too complicated and messy for the home buyer, they just want what looks good and the newer and more keeping with current tastes the better. Forget the income approach and discounted cash flow methods - non-sequiter.

However, for income properties (residential and commercial), the arguments are totally different. You'll need to get out your HP12c in that case.

 

[Restrain]

While not directly solar, changes in economic realities affect building and investment decisions. Due to the large amount of wind power in Twxas coupled with the low cost of gas-fired generation, NRG announced it was canceling a new coal-fired plant in Texas. Not economically feasible. The same will happen with current solar technologies. changes in technologies as mentioned in the post above will make the large panels obsolete and reduce costs to the point of being in everyday use.

 

[Meandering]

That's happening now in a very beginning post I put a news paper article about why the school district is not getting solar panels, because the carbon credit values are too low right now.

Some one should research the costs of disposal of solar panels. I'd bet you can't put them to the curb with the other trash. Not sure if the guys that put new ones on, take the old ones away for free like the new with refrigerators or washers and dryers from the big box stores.

.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

That's happening now in a very beginning post I put a news paper article about why the school district is not getting solar panels, because the carbon credit values are too low right now.

Some one should research the costs of disposal of solar panels. I'd bet you can't put them to the curb with the other trash. Not sure if the guys that put new ones on, take the old ones away for free like the new with refrigerators or washers and dryers from the big box stores.

.

Worse than batteries, either lead, nickel-cadmium or lithium.

Solar cells have some really toxic chemical elements like cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide and other exotic toxic elements.

 

[Elliott]

I'd think the most logical way to do it is from the stand point of a buyer. Go down the street and find a model match without solar and ask them how much they pay for their electricity. Amortize the saving (DCF, less expense (including the additional capital cost...ie., if it has a 'value' of say $40,000, then its going to have an expense to the new HO of financing that $40,000, which will wipe some of the 'savings.')).

The concept of 'savings' is like the Volt. It costs another $20,000 for an electric car to get cheaper cost per mile, but the market isn't rushing out because of the super premium cost of initial purchase.

Cost surely isn't directly correlated to market value.

 

[prasercat]

While not directly solar, changes in economic realities affect building and investment decisions. Due to the large amount of wind power in Twxas coupled with the low cost of gas-fired generation, NRG announced it was canceling a new coal-fired plant in Texas. Not economically feasible. The same will happen with current solar technologies. changes in technologies as mentioned in the post above will make the large panels obsolete and reduce costs to the point of being in everyday use.

It seems to me that the house will become increasingly a piece of technology, subject to constant upgrading and that "ownership" will give way ultimately to the "lease" from a tech consortium that will make constant upgrades. So, in other words, a home's economic life will shorten and shorten and be increasingly dependent upon short-term upgrades, which will make long term financing increasingly unattractive to investors and such loans increasingly unavailable or at higher interest; unless, a guarantee of upgrades becomes part of the deed of ownership or financing. That guarantee will likely need to be backed in some part by the government in order to keep lending rates low enough, just as they are now.

I believe that most technologies for the immediate future will become "thin-layer", so all the walls, floors, exteriors, built-ins will have thin-layer technology. This means that information and interactive displays can be displayed at will on all surfaces with just a voice command. You want a different color or image of the surface? It will be like changing a desktop on your computer screen, but in 3-D and fully live virtual reality. Another choice may be to make the floors look like wood instead of marble, a counter a different color of granite. How about making a room appear it is made entirely of glass walls immersed in an ocean with fishes, corals and undulating plankton? The house would speak and provide your work environment, communication needs, entertainment, consultation (you talk to your house, it talks to you like a member of the family), information needs, power generation, food and other consumption procurement, waste disposal and recycling - self contained. No sewer lines, no power lines, just communication cables - even those will likely be replace by lasers or some other quantum mechanical innovation.

There may also be some element of the "Transformer" technology, which means that actual physical shape and texture of materials can change on demand. A choice of built-ins that can pop out of the walls. Need a bed, a wet bar, a workout station? Just say the command and it will just unfold out of any surface.

Yes, indeed, the future will look very different from today, and the rate of change will continue to accelerate, since the role of innovation and the building of new technologies will be increasingly controlled, not by humans, but by technology itself.

However, by the time many of the things I just mentioned become a reality, so much information will be available on every single home, even in real time, that appraising will be done entirely by technology without human intervention. Homes will be appraised in fractions of a second 24 hours per day, all year long - making the value of all the real estate in the US known in real time.

The problem is, what exactly we'll do for a living, to afford to live, to buy or lease a home and all that technology; in other words, to fulfill our role in the economy as consumer, should be the biggest problem facing human kind.

You may ask - What does all of this have to do with the contributory value of solar panels and how to calculate it? I would say, that question will change as the nature of "real estate" changes. In my opinion, the site value and the size of the home will likely become the primary driver of value for real estate and other factors will be governed mostly by technological capability. That technology will be owner dependent since it will cost money in the form of a lease; the more capability you have in your home, the more it will cost ongoing. Therefore, most other aspects and functionality in a home will fall in the realm of consumer preference (discretion) and be leased and not factor into the home's value - IMHO.

Ok, now we can talk about Quantum Mechanics - next post please......