• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Waiting For Btc To Hit 4000-3800, Then All Balls In!

Status
Not open for further replies.
View attachment 39307

Why does he extend that the prior cycle back to make it 142 weeks?

What I have been saying is that the cycles are getting longer and longer and that this bear market is probably going to be a lot longer than prior bear markets.

I'll give you some very valuable advice. Stop watching these videos.
LOL, I get what you are saying, but this is just one that at least give an idea of what I am seeing through my own charting and what am anticipating. I am just using the past for what is to come. I think and believe that we are developing a base and testing and breaking resistance levels and the longer the base, the more strength it is developing for that breakout.

I use and listen to a lot of sources like I have in the past and have done well with gold, miners and ETF's.
 
Speculators are always delusional. Bitcoin is a joke, just like baseball cards, comic books, and the original - gold.

Speculating should be banned, period, for essential goods. Gambling on nonsense like comic books or gold isn't really economically harmful per se, but it is yet another way capital fails to be deployed for investment.

Speculation should he heavily taxed, and wealth taxes for the most egregious hoarders would be prudent.
 
Speculators are always delusional. Bitcoin is a joke, just like baseball cards, comic books, and the original - gold.

Speculating should be banned, period, for essential goods. Gambling on nonsense like comic books or gold isn't really economically harmful per se, but it is yet another way capital fails to be deployed for investment.

Speculation should he heavily taxed, and wealth taxes for the most egregious hoarders would be prudent.

Please tell what else should be banned or heavily taxed. That way we'll be prepared for when you get your all powerful magic wand.
 
Please tell what else should be banned or heavily taxed. That way we'll be prepared for when you get your all powerful magic wand.

Commodity speculation has been condemned for most of human history from Plato, to Jesus, to Mohammad, to Karl Marx, to John Maynard Keynes, and myriad current economists. We have the famous Tobin tax once forex trading was legalized. Speculation was part of the Dodd Frank Act. This is all just off the top of my head.

Its defenders are few, and their more complete economic worldviews have never been implemented in history and are entirely theoretical. I am of course referring to Libertarianism.

Most "libertarians" have never read any serious economic treatise and pretend to have read Adam Smith, so I refer you to his Wealth of Nations Book 4, Chapter 5 where he discusses corn speculators.

In short, I can't think of any seriously learned thinker since civilization began who believed speculation was ever a "good thing".

Buying bitcoin or gold or comic books is gambling. It should be recognized as a public vice, but it is not inherently economically dangerous as in it could lead to starvation or major social unrest. It can and has ruined individual lives and families, but the damage is usually limited to that realm.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here's a defender for you, had to look it up after you mentioned his name.

In 1936, John Maynard Keynes wrote: "Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the situation is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. (1936:159)"[18] Keynes himself enjoyed speculation to the fullest, running an early precursor of a hedge fund. As the Bursar of the Cambridge University King's College, he managed two investment funds, one of which, called Chest Fund, invested not only in the then 'emerging' market US stocks, but to a smaller extent periodically included commodity futures and foreign currencies (see Chua and Woodward, 1983). His fund was profitable almost every year, averaging 13% per year, even during the Great Depression, thanks to very modern investment strategies, which included inter-market diversification (it invested in stocks, commodities and currencies) as well as shorting (selling borrowed stocks or futures to profit from falling prices), which Keynes advocated among the principles of successful investment in his 1933 report: "a balanced investment position... and if possible, opposed risks.

Tobin Tax? That's laughable as to its effect.

In most of the available empirical studies however, no statistically significant causal link has been found between an increase in transaction costs (transaction taxes or government-controlled minimum brokerage commissions) and a reduction in volatility.

Adam Smith
On gouging and price controls to prevent it:



When the government, in order to remedy the inconveniences of a dearth, orders all the dealers to sell their corn at what it supposes a reasonable price, it either hinders them from bringing it to market, which may sometimes produce a famine even in the beginning of the season; or if they bring it thither, it enables the people, and thereby encourages them to consume it so fast as must necessarily produce a famine before the end of the season. The unlimited, unrestrained freedom of the corn trade, as it is the only effectual preventative of the miseries of a famine, so it is the best palliative of the inconveniences of a dearth; for the inconveniences of a real scarcity cannot be remedied, they can only be palliated. No trade deserves more the full protection of the law, and no trade requires it so much, because no trade is so much exposed to popular odium.

On speculation:



But if a merchant ever buys up corn, either going to a particular market or in a particular market, in order to sell it again soon after in the same market, it must be because he judges that the market cannot be so liberally supplied through the whole season as upon that particular occasion, and that the price, therefore, must soon rise. If he judges wrong in this, and if the price does not rise, he not only loses the whole profit of the stock which he employs in this manner, but a part of the stock itself, by the expence and loss which necessarily attend the storing and keeping of corn. He hurts himself, therefore, much more essentially than he can hurt even the particular people whom he may hinder from supplying themselves upon that particular market day, because they may afterwards supply themselves just as cheap upon any other market day. If he judges right, instead of hurting the great body of the people, he renders them a most important service. By making them feel the inconveniencies of a dearth somewhat earlier than they otherwise might do, he prevents their feeling them afterwards so severely as they certainly would do, if the cheapness of price encouraged them to consume faster than suited the real scarcity of the season. When the scarcity is real, the best thing that can be done for the people is to divide the inconveniencies of it as equally as possible through all the different months, and weeks, and days of the year. The interest of the corn merchant makes him study to do this as exactly as he can: and as no other person can have either the same interest, or the same knowledge, or the same abilities to do it so exactly as he, this most important operation of commerce ought to be trusted entirely to him; or, in other words, the corn trade, so far at least as concerns the supply of the home market, ought to be left perfectly free.


Not touching the religious pundits.
 
You had to look up John Maynard Keynes as if you never heard of him?

Back when the United Nations was founded, he advocated abolishing the use of national currencies for international exchange, and utilizing a reserve currency unit called the Bancor. A major component of system was fixing commodity values.

I have no idea where that quote came from, but in 1944-1945, this very concept was central to global events and ultimately was the prelude to the Cold War.

As for Smith, you are missing the key component:

"least as concerns the supply of the home market, ought to be left perfectly free."

I do apologize for clarifying that economists tend to write about the whole world.

As for the religious figures, Dante's Inferno also is quite good, with speculators in the 8th circle of hell. A bit easier to grasp as there are many better modern translations versus say, Plato's Laws.
 
Commodity speculation has been condemned for most of human history from Plato, to Jesus, to Mohammad, to Karl Marx, to John Maynard Keynes, and myriad current economists. We have the famous Tobin tax once forex trading was legalized. Speculation was part of the Dodd Frank Act. This is all just off the top of my head.

Its defenders are few, and their more complete economic worldviews have never been implemented in history and are entirely theoretical. I am of course referring to Libertarianism.

Most "libertarians" have never read any serious economic treatise and pretend to have read Adam Smith, so I refer you to his Wealth of Nations Book 4, Chapter 5 where he discusses corn speculators.

In short, I can't think of any seriously learned thinker since civilization began who believed speculation was ever a "good thing".

Buying bitcoin or gold or comic books is gambling. It should be recognized as a public vice, but it is not inherently economically dangerous as in it could lead to starvation or major social unrest. It can and has ruined individual lives and families, but the damage is usually limited to that realm.
Kissing a girl is speculation. I do not believe in gambling and that is why I trade. I have done very well and very bad in trading. But through it all I have learned enough to have low risk and high reward.

In gambling you have very low chance to get out to save your risk. In trading you have a chance to get out with either a loss or profit. Way different than gambling. Gambling are for those those that do not study enough before they take that risk.
 
We hit a support, I add more!
 
Anyone that doesn't understand, or appreciate, the role of speculators in a commodity market needs to take ECON 101 again.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top