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how much tax revenue starved by trumps tax cuts
AI Overview
Estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other organizations project that the individual tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and additional proposals by Donald Trump could reduce federal revenue by more than $5 trillion over the next decade
. The specific amount depends on which temporary provisions are extended and how additional tax and spending changes are implemented.
Budgetary impact over the next decade (2025–2034)
Because most individual tax cuts from the TCJA are set to expire at the end of 2025, the revenue impact over the next decade depends heavily on whether they are extended.
- Cost of extending the TCJA: The Tax Foundation projects that making the expiring TCJA provisions—covering individual, estate, and some business taxes—permanent would reduce federal revenue by $4.5 trillion from 2025 to 2034. This would increase the national deficit by $5.4 trillion over the same period when accounting for higher interest costs on the debt.
- Cost of a new tax plan: Proposed legislation signed in July 2025, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," would make the 2017 tax cuts permanent and enact other tax changes. The Tax Foundation estimates this law will reduce federal revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it will increase the deficit by $4.1 trillion, including interest costs.
Shortfall compared to earlier projections
The tax cuts have caused revenues to fall significantly below projections made before the TCJA was passed.
- Pre-TCJA vs. actual revenue: The Center for American Progress found that federal revenues in 2023 were 1.5 percentage points lower as a share of GDP than projections made prior to the tax cuts. This equates to a difference of over $800 billion annually, despite a richer economy and similar employment rates.
- No evidence of paying for itself: An analysis by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business concluded that the TCJA's revenue losses were not offset by increased economic growth. While the tax cuts did boost investment, they were not enough to make up for the substantial corporate tax revenue losses.
- Historic revenue lows: Federal revenues measured as a percentage of GDP are at historically low levels, given the current strength of the economy and high employment rates. This contrasts with pre-TCJA trends, where revenues consistently exceeded 19% of GDP during times of low unemployment.
Factors complicating revenue analysis
t term for it then. The facts are there.