What Direction will Stocks, Oil, and Housing Prices Go?

[Fernando]

Prices for homes are 4x that of when I started appraising. And is 60% higher than it was during the Great Recession. But wait! There's more...

The properties I bought in Great Recession have increased at least 150%. Prices here increase faster in long term than other parts of nation.
Good to buy here even though expensive with high paying jobs.

Housing affordability hit a low this year in June.
Food prices OTOH rose slowly through the 50s-60s. The break point was 1973- the energy crisis and embargo. Food prices then rose at a steeper angle but very steady up through 2020. Now it is on a trajectory that is insanely unsustainable. Gasoline prices were falling but signs are that the fall is flattening out and may start to rise as the formulation changes for winter driving and winter heating oil cuts into gasoline production. And diesel prices actually reversed and are rising for the last 3 weeks or so.


And if we eliminated the Fed? Who would set the rate? When LTCM went kaput with Russian bonds in 1998, who stepped in to bail them out? The Fed? Or, was it the banks and folks like Warren Buffet?

Can't eliminate the Fed. Fed makes the rules and have big influence on stock market. When rates increased their rates, T bills generally increase also thus making better investment than stocks.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Nothing that you think you know based on living the last 50 years is applicable anymore. That is what the data is saying.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

That is what the data is saying.

This time it's different... I wonder where I heard that before?

 

[OSU Beavers]

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The properties I bought in Great Recession have increased at least 150%

Much of the housing here has doubled in price...value, not so much. And it will revert to the mean.

 

[OSU Beavers]

 

[KYLECODY]

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Same thing with home builders. Broke out of a 14 year base in 2020. Now it is coming back to retest the breakout level. Great setup to buy homebuilders maybe around $50.

If builders do go higher what does that mean for the economy and real estate?

Do you do much new construction, mainstream builders? Or talk to the sales reps on site for the "good stocks" Dr Horton, Toll, Lennar, etc? Virtually no walk in traffic the last 3-4 months. 90% of sales, per a Pulte rep, are out of State buyers and most are cash. No or very few locals here are buying or even looking at current price ranges. Sales reps are getting downsized and combining subdivisions...yet the builders continued to buy land at sky high prices until recently thinking the party would last forever. We'll see in 6 months or so when the last stuff that went under contract when there was still high demand is built out. Ive seen this story before.

 

[KYLECODY]

You don't fight the FED. FED always wins.

Are you quoting Cramer, or is that an original thought? I agree though. Cant fight the Fed. Growth stocks will struggle off and on for several years. Not the time for stocks with no earnings or ones that could be good "if" they grow and expand. Not a bad time to sit on the sidelines.

 

[KYLECODY]

The properties I bought in Great Recession have increased at least 150%

150% from the Great Recession? Are you sure you're doing this right? Rookie.

 

[KYLECODY]

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Maybe start another ridiculous, pointless, political whining thread in the watercooler, instead of here? It will be the typical echo chamber people seem to prefer.