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What will 2025 bring to the stock market?

Fernando said:
I have a positive outlook in Trump Tax Reform 2.0 coming. That's the only good thing that Trump got elected especially in lowering estate taxes.
Yet with Trump continual disapproval in polls, the chances get less and less. Hurry Congress and lower our taxes.
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Fernando you have to realize this tariff issue isn’t just about a trade imbalance. It is about national security. We either fight this war now or we lose the war in the future. If we don’t onshore critical components to make our country self-sufficient, but continue to depend upon China which DOES have goals to take Taiwan, then we are cooked. Think about the sacrifices that people made during WW2. We haven’t even come close to that. What idiots made it so that 90% of the critical metal components for national defense came from China? Now you know why Trump wants Greenland. But much of this is because of all the liberal regulations that prevented mining in our own country. Then we have 36 trillion in debt that makes us susceptible to China holding our debt! Of which Biden increased the national spending by 40% in 4 years and the national debt by 9 trillion, and guess who holds a lot of that debt? Other nations. Trump is recognizing our vulnerability and trying to reset tremendously bad trade imbalances where China has far too big of an influence. You may not like it and complain, but it is pay me now or pay me later.

You also need to understand Trump’s total strategy.
1) Create more fair trade to make our products competitive and help our producers.
2) Create a tax system that creates opportunity and motivation to produce more in the U.S. Critical is the 15% corporate tax which will motivate industry to come here coupled with more fair trade.
3) Reduce regulations that cripple private investment and slows capital formation. This encourages capital formation here and more production here.
4) Reduce the debt and balance the budget which will ultimately lead to lower interest rates. Lower interest rates are better for capital formation.

If you just focus on one element you miss the entire strategy. And it doesn’t happen over night. It will take time. But again pay me now or pay me later.
 
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Airstream said:
Fernando you have to realize this tariff issue isn’t just about a trade imbalance. It is about national security. We either fight this war now or we lose the war in the future. If we don’t onshore critical components to make our country self-sufficient, but continue to depend upon China which DOES have goals to take Taiwan, then we are cooked. Think about the sacrifices that people made during WW2. We haven’t even come close to that. What idiots made it so that 90% of the critical metal components for national defense came from China? Now you know why Trump wants Greenland. But much of this is because of all the liberal regulations that prevented mining in our own country. Then we have 36 trillion in debt that makes us susceptible to China holding our debt! Of which Biden increased the national spending by 40% in 4 years and the national debt by 9 trillion, and guess who holds a lot of that debt? Other nations. Trump is recognizing our vulnerability and trying to reset tremendously bad trade imbalances where China has far too big of an influence. You may not like it and complain, but it is pay me now or pay me later.
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National Security? China Threat is all made up by Trump. There are other ways to counter Trump's fears than to self destruct our economy.
 
Fernando said:
National Security? China Threat is all made up by Trump. There are other ways to counter Trump's fears than to self destruct our economy.
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You are a fool if you think that. You are making the very same mistake the US made during WW2 about Japan.
 

Jerome Powell sounds warning on Trump’s tariffs: ‘Highly likely’ to raise prices, ‘continued volatility’ in the markets, and the looming threat of stagflation

  • Inflation could rise and growth could slow as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During a speech on Wednesday, Powell said the Fed’s top goal was keeping price increases from Trump’s tariffs limited to a one-time event, so inflation doesn’t linger.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded his strongest warning to date about the impact of President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs.

“The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” Powell said on Wednesday during a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago.

Tariffs would raise inflation and slow growth, Powell said, reiterating a point he made earlier this month. They have also weighed heavily on expectations businesses and consumers had about the economy.

“Surveys of households and businesses report a sharp decline in sentiment and elevated uncertainty about the outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns,” Powelll said.

The economy now faced “heightened downside risks,” Powell added—a stark acknowledgement of a possible economic downturn for the usually circumspect role of Federal Reserve chair.

Powell saw it as “highly likely” tariffs would raise prices, but the key question the Fed was still evaluating is how long this would last.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said.
 
Fernando said:

Jerome Powell sounds warning on Trump’s tariffs: ‘Highly likely’ to raise prices, ‘continued volatility’ in the markets, and the looming threat of stagflation

  • Inflation could rise and growth could slow as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During a speech on Wednesday, Powell said the Fed’s top goal was keeping price increases from Trump’s tariffs limited to a one-time event, so inflation doesn’t linger.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded his strongest warning to date about the impact of President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs.

“The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” Powell said on Wednesday during a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago.

Tariffs would raise inflation and slow growth, Powell said, reiterating a point he made earlier this month. They have also weighed heavily on expectations businesses and consumers had about the economy.

“Surveys of households and businesses report a sharp decline in sentiment and elevated uncertainty about the outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns,” Powelll said.

The economy now faced “heightened downside risks,” Powell added—a stark acknowledgement of a possible economic downturn for the usually circumspect role of Federal Reserve chair.

Powell saw it as “highly likely” tariffs would raise prices, but the key question the Fed was still evaluating is how long this would last.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said.
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Powell also said inflation was transitory under Biden.
 
Fernando said:
What's your point?
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My point? Powell is not reliable. He clearly missed the consequences of Biden’s dumping of trillions of dollars into an economy with out the requisite supply to actually spend that money on. Anybody with an elementary understanding of economics would know that is reason for massive inflation which in fact occurred!!! So Powell doesn’t even have the intelligence to know what causes inflation in the long run. And it is NOT tariffs!!! Inflation in the long-run is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. Any inflation that is caused by tariffs will in fact by transitory!! If tariffs cause an economic slowdown how the heck does that cause inflation in the long run!! Powell is dumb as bricks with regard to economics. He can’t see it when it is obvious which is TOO MUCH MONEY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS!! NOT TARIFFS WHICH CAUSES TRANSITORY PRICE INCREASES. IF TARIFFS ARE THE REASON FOR CONSTANT STAGFLATION EUROPE AND ALL OTHER TARIFF NATIONS WOULD BE IN A CONSTANT STATE OF INFLATION WHICH THEY ARE NOT!!! AND WHEN THE US LIVED ON TARIFFS IN THE LATE 1800’ TO 1913 IT WOULD HAVE CAUSED MASSIVE INFLATION WHICH IT DIDN’T!! Tariffs are in fact basically like the Value Added Tax or the Sales Tax. Do they cause stagflation???????? So when your state and local governments decide to raise their sales tax do people crow about how that will cause stagflation? It does cause some inflation since goods do cost more. But inflation is not constant. It is not stagflation, because we do not have the constant scenario of too much money chasing too few goods. Think of a tariff as a tax; which it is. How does an increase in taxes cause inflation in the long run? The only difference between a sales tax and a tariff is who initially pays it. But also a tariff can’t always be completely passed on to the consumer because of price elasticity. In fact due to price elasticity one can make a strong argument that tariffs are a better way for the government to raise revenue than a sales tax. Sales taxes are completely born by the consumer. Tariffs aren’t always due to price elasticity.
 
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Airstream said:
My point? Powell is not reliable. He clearly missed the consequences of Biden’s dumping of trillions of dollars into an economy with out the requisite supply to actually spend that money on. Anybody with an elementary understanding of economics would know that is reason for massive inflation which in fact occurred!!! So Powell doesn’t even have the intelligence to know what causes inflation in the long run. And it is NOT tariffs!!! Inflation in the long-run is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. Any inflation that is caused by tariffs will in fact by transitory!! If tariffs cause an economic slowdown how the heck does that cause inflation in the long run!! Powell is dumb as bricks with regard to economics. He can’t see it when it is obvious which is TOO MUCH MONEY CHASING TOO FEW GOODS!! NOT TARIFFS WHICH CAUSES TRANSITORY PRICE INCREASES. IF TARIFFS ARE THE REASON FOR CONSTANT STAGFLATION EUROPE AND ALL OTHER TARIFF NATIONS WOULD BE IN A CONSTANT STATE OF INFLATION WHICH THEY ARE NOT!!! AND WHEN THE US LIVED ON TARIFFS IN THE LATE 1800’ TO 1913 IT WOULD HAVE CAUSED MASSIVE INFLATION WHICH IT DIDN’T!! Tariffs are in fact basically like the Value Added Tax or the Sales Tax. Do they cause stagflation???????? So when your state and local governments decide to raise their sales tax do people crow about how that will cause stagflation? It does cause some inflation since goods do cost more. But inflation is not constant. It is not stagflation, because we do not have the constant scenario of too much money chasing too few goods. Think of a tariff as a tax; which it is. How does an increase in taxes cause inflation in the long run? The only difference between a sales tax and a tariff is who initially pays it. But also a tariff can’t always be completely passed on to the consumer because of price elasticity. In fact due to price elasticity one can make a strong argument that tariffs are a better way for the government to raise revenue than a sales tax. Sales taxes are completely born by the consumer. Tariffs aren’t always due to price elasticity.
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What are you talking about. Powell kept our economy from going into a recession during Biden's term. Before he made monetary policies and didn't discuss fiscal policies in his decision making.
Yesterday, I was shocked that he discussed how Trump's ill conceived tariffs will "hurt" our economy. When Powell mentioned about the dire consequences of Trump's erratic tariff policies, it's something he has serious concerns. I hope Trump is hearing from an expert that his tariffs are bad for the economy. So glad the FED is independent from Trump and will have a balancing act to make counter moves to prevent us from going into a Depression.
 
Recession must be coming.
Unlike coming prices to increase due to tariffs, my vacation prices I paid dropped today. Less people traveling to Europe?
Reminds me of the Great Recession when travel was cheap.
 
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