Where are the orders!

[Zoe]

delete

 

[Zoe]

Can we admit that there was an appraiser shortage during 2020 and 2021....

Can you expand on your thoughts sir?

 

[Zoe]

No, there was not an appraiser shortage; the problem is the supply of appraisers is not elastic; it stays relatively stable within a 5-10 year period, but volume can rise and fall sharply - thus relative to the volume, there is not "enough" appraisers in a busy time and " too many appraisers in a slow time.

Newbies, everybody, take note, the actions of Fannie and Freddie on res end introduce MORE supply on the appraisal coverage end, (even with the same amount of appraisers ) This means, relative to work volume, there will not be as big an unbalance in busy times - there will still be too many or enough appraisers even when volume expands for the following reasons:

1) Waivers/value acceptance replaces a percent of appraisals. Unknown the total percent since they keep changing the charts and basis for it, but it varied over the past several years from 15% to 40%. Let's say that waivers settle in at replacing 20% of all appraisal volume. That is a significant amount of order displacement. Even 10% would be a significant amount.

2) CDC collectors ( non appraisers inspection ) means the appraisers doing the desktop portion can churn out more volume, either as a fee appraiser or on staff, thus reducing the number of available orders. What percent of these hybrids/bifurcated appraisals will replace traditional appraisals where the appraiser inspects? IDK, the trend is still gathering momentum. Let's say, just for a prediction, 15% of all orders. Between hybrids and waivers we have a combined reduction of volume of 30% of all appraisal orders.

Thus, it is even worse in a slow cycle, and even in a busy cycle, everybody is less busy. Combine that with the AMC domination of large amounts of volume in many regions, and somebody explains to me how this is in any way, shape, or form a viable career choice now for a res-only license ( a few niche areas or niche expertise aside ). Any private work or quality lender work not ordered through an AMC is assigned to experienced appraisers already on a panel or who are established in that niche. Idk why any newbie would continue in this path unless the want to join the management side, which has few openings and most chief appraisers at an AMC or lender have an SRA -

Your touching on market structure. That is all antitrust law related. That is something CFPB and FTC could sink teeth in.

 

[ucbruin]

No, there was not an appraiser shortage; the problem is the supply of appraisers is not elastic; it stays relatively stable within a 5-10 year period, but volume can rise and fall sharply - thus relative to the volume, there is not "enough" appraisers in a busy time and " too many appraisers in a slow time.

Newbies, everybody, take note, the actions of Fannie and Freddie on res end introduce MORE supply on the appraisal coverage end, (even with the same amount of appraisers ) This means, relative to work volume, there will not be as big an unbalance in busy times - there will still be too many or enough appraisers even when volume expands for the following reasons:

1) Waivers/value acceptance replaces a percent of appraisals. Unknown the total percent since they keep changing the charts and basis for it, but it varied over the past several years from 15% to 40%. Let's say that waivers settle in at replacing 20% of all appraisal volume. That is a significant amount of order displacement. Even 10% would be a significant amount.

2) CDC collectors ( non appraisers inspection ) means the appraisers doing the desktop portion can churn out more volume, either as a fee appraiser or on staff, thus reducing the number of available orders. What percent of these hybrids/bifurcated appraisals will replace traditional appraisals where the appraiser inspects? IDK, the trend is still gathering momentum. Let's say, just for a prediction, 15% of all orders. Between hybrids and waivers we have a combined reduction of volume of 30% of all appraisal orders.

Thus, it is even worse in a slow cycle, and even in a busy cycle, everybody is less busy. Combine that with the AMC domination of large amounts of volume in many regions, and somebody explains to me how this is in any way, shape, or form a viable career choice now for a res-only license ( a few niche areas or niche expertise aside ). Any private work or quality lender work not ordered through an AMC is assigned to experienced appraisers already on a panel or who are established in that niche. Idk why any newbie would continue in this path unless the want to join the management side, which has few openings and most chief appraisers at an AMC or lender have an SRA -

That has been an issue, at least for me since 1987....

 

[Zoe]

Most people don't realize how powerful CFPB and FTC are.. Many do that have been punished dearly.

CFPB is primary source to contact. They ask for comments currently. They want your comments. If they didn't want your comments, they would not ask for your comments.

 

[Zoe]

CFPB has authority over FTC however FTC can do more damage.

FTC can be saving grace if could get CFPB to lower hammer.

 

[davetherock]

good answer - It is like going to Chick fil a at noon - there is a worker shortage to take your order - versus going at 8:30 pm that night - you have 3 folks to take your order. Right now it is 8:30 at night in the appraisal world

 

[Zoe]

Look at appraisal bias hearings. Look at very powerful institutions.

Notice CFPB was always last to speak. Sink that in your mind who has most power. i didn't see FTC there but CFPB has power over FTC. Trust me.

 

[Zoe]

There is no entity that CFPB does not have power over.

 

[Zoe]

Mr. Chopra seems like a nice man. Email him

I promise you he has more power than anybody alive in trade. More than FTC.