Who else is dead slow lately?

[ZZGAMAZZ]

Personally, my license renewal is up this summer and I shall renew it.

What I won't do this year is renew E&O or software.

I shall be sitting on the sidelines till there is some action. Then I will get back into the game unless I retire beforehand.

Sounds like you have a specific plan for your future. I'm envious!!! Unsure whether you are aware, but your E&O coverage might be negativity affected. My understanding is that to cease coverage by even one day eliminates the insurer's liability for anything EVER in the past while you were covered...

Really? I have never heard of that.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

If prices remain flat, then the market will return to the mean of the trendline over the decades. We may not see prices of houses increase for a decade or more.

 

[Bobby Bucks]

Really? I have never heard of that.

Tail coverage is often used when appraisers retire so they're covered for appraisals completed back to a specific date. Most E & O policies have that option. I would assume they have the same option if you are inactive, but I'm not certain. There is an E & O representative in the forum and a couple insurance agents who are also appraisers, maybe they will see the post and give a better answer than I can.

 

[Joe Flacco]

View attachment 97680

What is really wierd is 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 are the only times since the 60's that the median home price shows a decline year-over-year without a recession.

I just remembered that Q1 and Q2 2022 were two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and they said it was not a recession. 2018 was when the rates went up before the sharp drop before covid. The bond market was acting like recession in 2019 but GDP growth rate did not go negative.

Seems like they are probably playing games with the GDP data and what is and is not a recession. That is the only explanation for the two recent year-over-year declines in the median sale price without a recession.

 

[Gobears81]

I just remembered that Q1 and Q2 2022 were two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and they said it was not a recession. 2018 was when the rates went up before the sharp drop before covid. The bond market was acting like recession in 2019 but GDP growth rate did not go negative.

Seems like they are probably playing games with the GDP data and what is and is not a recession. That is the only explanation for the two recent year-over-year declines in the median sale price without a recession.

There is more "financial engineering" done by the Fed than there used to be, not to mention the stimulus and PPP payments that spiked the punch bowl for awhile. Interest rates were artificially low, then doubling due in large part to the government opening up the fiscal floodgates that resulted in no one moving to lose their 3% mortgage...which snowballed into constrained supply. Comparisons can't be made to pre-2008 figures because those at the top seem to have lost their way in the 21st century.

 

[Joe Flacco]

There is more "financial engineering" done by the Fed than there used to be, not to mention the stimulus and PPP payments that spiked the punch bowl for awhile. Interest rates were artificially low, then doubling due in large part to the government opening up the fiscal floodgates that resulted in no one moving to lose their 3% mortgage...which snowballed into constrained supply. Comparisons can't be made to pre-2008 figures because those at the top seem to have lost their way in the 21st century.

You are probably right except for the part about artificially low interest rates.

 

[Gobears81]

You are probably right except for the part about artificially low interest rates.

How so?

 

[Joe Flacco]

How so?

I don't think rates were artificially low. We had slow but positive growth and low inflation with those rates so there was no reason for rates to be higher.

There is a lot more financial engineering though. I think they are probably playing around with the data too.

 

[Gobears81]

I don't think rates were artificially low. We had slow but positive growth and low inflation with those rates so there was no reason for rates to be higher.

There is a lot more financial engineering though. I think they are probably playing around with the data too.

QE was by its very definition designed to lower interest rates. Rates were at 50+ Year lows, and you can literally see on the chart where the the Fed started buying treasuries in 2008-2020

 

[Fernando]

FED was "forced" to buy our Treasuries because few buyers willing to.
I wasn't sure how it would play out because day of reckoning eventually catches up on us. And we saw it in past few year.
We're paying the price from QE.