Will There Be A Shortage Of Appraisers?

[George Hatch]

Okay gang,

I'd like to see how you folks feel about the process of requiring trainees to gain their experience hours under supervision from a fully licensed or certified appraiser, with the principal being held completely responsible for the work of the trainee.

The reason I ask is because I seem to be noticing a lot of references to the responsibility that established appraisers have toward the profession when it comes to training new blood. Recently, we have had several references from trainess commenting on the general graying of the members of our profession and how if we don't change our attitudes there will be a looming shortage of qualified appraisers to handle the workload. At least one of the professional appraiser groups have also commented on this subject. I'd like to hear from the rank and file.

I'd put this up as a poll, but I know that it would be skewed by the number of trainees, whose opinions would be understandibly biased on this subject. Besides, having an opinion is one thing; explaining it in a reasonable manner is another. In this case, your reasons are at least as informative as your opinions.


So I put the following questions to my peers.

Do you think that there is a significant danger that there will be a shortage of appraisers in the next five years unless more of the established veterans get involved in the mentoring process?

Do you think that the number of fully qualified appraisers online is sufficiently in balance to not worry about increasing our ranks beyond the current and proposed processes in place?

Do you think there will be an oversupply of appraisers in five years unless we thin out the existing herd some?

Anybody can respond to this discussion because we all recognize there are two sides to it. Let's see if we can discuss this subject without getting into class warfare, okay? This is a simple supply and demand question.

 

[Paul Shraga]

I'm gonna go with, NO, I do not think there will be a shortage of appraisers in the future judging from the amount of students in the trainee classes i've attended. Most are newbies, looking to get into the field (or retirees, looking for a second career, go figure!) Yes, there is certainly a "graying of America" to come in the next 10-15 years but I'd say, imho, Appraiser shortages will not occur. (Not that there'd be anything if there were) :mrgreen:

A good weekend to all.

 

[Paul Shraga]

oops...

(Not that there'd be anything if there were)

(Not that there'd be anything WRONG if there were) :mrgreen:

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

IMO

Once this refi boom slows down or ends, the sales will also decline in numbers, and the number of appraisals needed will drastically be reduced.

Most of the past 3 years of trainees, especially this past 1 year, will no longer be needed and only the best of that bunch will have a chance to keep appraising. The mentors will have to do their own work to keep themselves afloat and the trainees will have to go.

IF the number hitting causes the mortgage loan losses I think they will, the culling of the appraisers herd will be huge. Some will go to jail, some will simply turn in their license and go on to something else. REOs and litigation appraisal orders will be given to those that actually know what they are doing.

Huge numbers of trainees are being pumped out of the schools right now and the vast majority will never make it. Hopefully, the whole training system will be overhauled. The initial classes are grossly minimal and totally inadequate.

Just a few of the good trainees will make it and will likely be enough to replace those that are old enough (or sick to death of fraud!) to retire.

I could be wrong..... I could be right. Never could find the right crystal ball.

 

[Carnivore]

Do you think that there is a significant danger that there will be a shortage of appraisers in the next five years unless more of the established veterans get involved in the mentoring process?

Pre-licensing requirements have changed very little since the early 90's. I dont mean to say that requirements are not more stingent. I mean to say that Its as easy today to be become a trainee as it was 10 years ago. It just takes a little more effort to be licensed or certified. So there should be a good supply of trainee's. This is healthy, it lets me pick and choose versus settiling for whats available. I dont make my decision too take on a trainee for some greater cause other than my desire to make more money. I do take serious the responsibility of teaching someone the trade. I currently have a trainee coming on-board.

Do you think that the number of fully qualified appraisers online is sufficiently in balance to not worry about increasing our ranks beyond the current and proposed processes in place?

I really dont have a way of judging this. I am a one man shop expanding to two people. I will be adding one or two accounts to provided work for the trainee and to cull out a broker or two in the quest for better quality work.

Do you think there will be an oversupply of appraisers in five years unless we thin out the existing herd some?

I think we have an oversupply of 'Skippies", 'number hitters' and some just plain stupid appraisers/trainee's.
So yes, we should thin the ranks to make room for some better talent. I do like having someone nip at my heels. It keeps me in shape mentally and up to dat with the profession.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think that as the industry slows, I might be MORE willing to being on a trainee, as I will have more time to show them, and won't worry about them slowing me down, and costing me money. I think the same thing will happen with the "old timers" as they slow down, they might be willing to bring in a young'in to show them the ropes, and retire gracefully.......

I think right now, there is an OVERSUPPLY of "appraisers" or at least people who call themselves appraisers. I am referring to the number hitters out there, and the glut of people BEGGING for mentors to show them how to appraisers, and to give them work. I think we will see a thinning of the herd, or people who realize that it;s not just walking around and looking at a house, and getting paid a few hundred bucks.......

 

[Restrain]

Volumes will finally, at some point, decline. Newbies that have a lot of new office debt will be in trouble. Wannabees will go somewhere else. That will thin out a lot of the excess " fat". However, the lenders want to do away with appraisers and use "automated" systems to make value instead of relying on an appraisal, which will reduce the number of appraisals over the long haul. So, as we retire, the number of appraisers will decline pretty much as the volume declines.

I wouldn't recommend this business to someone wanting to begin a new career because of the above.

The only change would be if they finally got tough on lenders by reducing the de minimus, requiring at least a drive-by on all homes over $50K, and doing something about lender pressure.

I noted that Inman News had an editorial about reducing mortgage fraud. Now if only someone would listen.

Roger

 

[Travis McGee]

I have 3 trainees. Right now there is a shortage of appraisers . This will probably continue unless the industry assures us there is more stability-such as not using AVM's, PBO's, etc. Without the former protection we had from the lower de minimus, we can never be sure of future income stream, and therefore are reluctant to expand the appraiser base. Plus it is hard for people to make so little money as trainees for 2 to 2!/2 years, as appraisal fees have still not risen to where they need to cover all the costs involved.

I think interest rates will not rise dramatically for a long, long time, as the Feds know that the new investor driven market in real estate would collapse (I'm sure plenty of them have real estate in thier portfolios)

As many post in this forum, the current climate of appraisal has so much pressure and offers so little protection that it either attracts, stubborn, ethical types (most of the forumites!) or sleazes, who see the same climate as an opportunity to cash in. My 3 trainees are bright, ethical people who I think will benefit the profession. I turned down one guy who already is a scam artitist- among other things, he had the idea to work for several people at once (after he got another job, called me and offered to work on weekends, )

 

[Randy Beigh]

I think history is a good indicator of the future. As such, there have been about 80,000 appraisers for many years and I don't think that will change much.

If some companies have been adding a bunch of people to take the slack off this re-fi boom, the trainees involved will likely get their walking papers when this is over. While we all know, this party will come to an end, nobody knows when. Could be next week or next year.

I have added employees, but in a more calculated method than just thinking of the re-fi's.

 

[Mike Simpson]

APPRAISER SHORTAGE???!!!

We've had one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation here in WA recently, and what do you think everybody I've run across (out of work) says their considering doing?

You guessed it...appraising. If it's not appraising it's home inspection or real estate. I caution these folks to research the fields their considering very carefully. There's no end to the con artists out there who'll sell someone what they want to hear, "just sign here on the dotted line, and all your woes will be over--we'll bring you more work than you'll know what to do with, cause here at ___ we're always busy..."

Truth is the market's already saturated. The newbie classes are crammed full while the recert classes are cancelled from time to time due to lack of students--that should tell you something. Lest anyone tell you the appraisers are the ones holding up the show...it's taking them 60 days to close on our refi WITHOUT AN APPRAISAL!!! We've just been informed we won't be closing this month (hope they plan on paying the interest!).

For those newbies determined to break into the business--damn the torpedoes...full speed ahead! There will always be market share for those unwilling to quit. Starting out might be rough, but the end results will be worth it.

-Mike