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Will You Get The Vaccine?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 152047
  • Start date Start date

Will you get the vaccine?

  • Yes

    Votes: 46 65.7%

  • No

    Votes: 12 17.1%

  • I don't know yet

    Votes: 12 17.1%
  • Total voters
    70
  • Poll closed .
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NachoPerito said:
not based on the Spanish Flu. It was based on the death rate up to that point that had been concluded combined with the RNaught. If we based on Spanish Flu numbers it would be 6m approximately
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I had no idea what it was based on, and I didn't even bother with the early estimates, as they were all over the place and there was little information on the virus to base any estimate on. I just see patterns in data, and the relationship between the population differences and the 2M number immediately popped out.
NachoPerito said:
650k deaths... i suppose that is your opinion, that would be impossible if we were to get to herd immunity, but nobody taking precautions and the RNaught as high as it is herd immunity is the only option. So if only 650k deaths for 230m cases. That is way too low considering that we already have 400k deaths with only 50m cases up to this point.
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This is all incredibly speculative, as we have no idea how many people have been exposed. It is probable we will never know, given that fact that more than a few people do not develop antibodies specific to the virus. Obviously the number exposed is much higher than the number that reported cases, as many people are asymptomatic and many others will not get tested. Some experts are putting that number exposed relative to the number of known cases as high as 8x. If that were true, approximately 50% of the country has already been exposed, thus putting us in somewhere within reach of herd immunity.
 
David Wimpelberg said:
I had no idea what it was based on, and I didn't even bother with the early estimates, as they were all over the place and there was little information on the virus to base any estimate on. I just see patterns in data, and the relationship between the population differences and the 2M number immediately popped out.

This is all incredibly speculative, as we have no idea how many people have been exposed. It is probable we will never know, given that fact that more than a few people do not develop antibodies specific to the virus. Obviously the number exposed is much higher than the number that reported cases, as many people are asymptomatic and many others will not get tested. Some experts are putting that number exposed relative to the number of known cases as high as 8x. If that were true, approximately 50% of the country has already been exposed, thus putting us in somewhere within reach of herd immunity.
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That is fine. Regarding the actual number of cases, that is not too difficult to determine due to antibody tests. My estimate of 50m is much higher than the current count of 22m. I feel good about that number based on the relationship of current case counts and the results of antibody tests on the population
 
NachoPerito said:
Regarding the actual number of cases, that is not too difficult to determine due to antibody tests.
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There are several well-known problems with this, which are being researched.
  1. Not everybody develops antibodies to this virus, and it appears that it is a significant number of people. In fact, I even personally know people that have had COVID-19, recovered, then tested negative for antibodies when the did the checkup, as well as people that have had it more than once. These aren't just anecdotes either; it's caught the attention of the medical community and researchers. There are numerous reasonable explanations for this.
  2. Immunity appears to be short lived. That might explain why people here in NY were reporting strange and complete loss of smell and taste very early in the year, yet tested negative for antibodies months later when this was noted as a sign of having the coronavirus.
 
David Wimpelberg said:
It's going to be an interesting analysis, because there are so many moving parts. For example, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the number of deaths from heart attacks, cancer, etc. go UP simply due to stress, passing on treatments for fear of going to a hospital, etc.
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:whistle:

www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC is responding to the novel (new) coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov


2018

FastStats

FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
In San Jose, there are 60 cases of people (at least 40 staff employees) who got Covid in an emergency hospital on Christmas day.
The suspected culprit is someone in an inflatable Christmas Tree spreading the virus on that day.
This makes me wonder why the vaccine didn't protect the hospital workers.
It would be shocking if the investigation finds that the vaccine is ineffective.
 
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