Slow Down?

[J Grant]

One of my best direct lending clients went to a bid system. I have "won" only one of those in the ten or so I have had sent to me. Most of the AMCs that I have no signed up with are bidding, and I have not "won" one of those. We even have real estate agents in on the bidding for private work lately. Doesn't matter how well you know the market for them, just the lowest and fastest, and they are not even the client. Crazy stuff.

Which essentially puts many of us, or at least those that won't bid basement fees out of business or into a part time income category. The "free market" at work lol...only it is not free, it just benefits some rather than others...the lenders via free of cost to them outsourcing of appraisals wins, the AMC;s win since they dont' charge lenders a cost expense but get paid from low fees to vendor, giving them a huge market share advantage- the appraisers lose. Some might compensate with complex work ( even that is bid down now ) or rural but waivers in rural areas impact them as well. Better to recognize what is happening painful though it is in order to make alt plans or adjust to a low income/part time source from appraising

Those who churn out fast and meet a QC checklist are the appraisers hired because as vendors they throw back more profit back to those hiring them.

Imo this bid system amounts to a form of kickbacks to receive work because bidding lower is not saving a cost to borrower or lender passed on to borrower, a lower bid gives more profit to the company or client hiring...too bad I am distracted now with survival because I wonder if an attorney can see that as a grounds issue...maybe later can explore it.

 

[Michigander]

It is a free market and supply and demand at work. As I am getting older, it does not make sense to retool into being a dental hygienist, or something like that. I also happen to still love appraisal. The mixture of analysis and communication make me so happy. I am fortunate to have a number of appraisers who are friends who do help, such as in doing work together when there is the opportunity, and referrals. Appraisers do need each other and we should try to help each other. Bidding does make that a fracture instead of a repair.

 

[djd09]

0 percent rates for 8 years were explicitly to artificially reflate the stock market and real estate. Now rates up but they can't go very far. Rates are still way below what they would be if there were no government insurance and complete control of real world rates. With 22 trillion in debt the government can't afford to pay much higher bond rates so the Fed is perminently handcuffed to a degree. The unprecedented and undisciplined childlike rounds QE are going to be a permanent fixture until there is some sort of collapse. The last 2 administrations took the easy way to kick the can down the road and now we are in the "roach motel" of QE....Easy to get in ... Impossible to get out. The Trump plan of making the USA the most attractive/safest place in the world for making/protecting money and the number 1 energy producer is probably the only long shot possible way to unwind what the fed has done but not likely.

But for us 8 years of zero rates has led to the lowest mortgage volume in 18 years( after the Clinton Dot-Com stock collapse / recession) now that rates are modestly rising. A modest rise in rates is a shock when zero percent was institutionalized for 8 years.

What happen to those "Toxic Assets"? They pumped and dumped. Now a repeat, just slightly different.

 

[J Grant]

It is a free market and supply and demand at work. As I am getting older, it does not make sense to retool into being a dental hygienist, or something like that. I also happen to still love appraisal. The mixture of analysis and communication make me so happy. I am fortunate to have a number of appraisers who are friends who do help, such as in doing work together when there is the opportunity, and referrals. Appraisers do need each other and we should try to help each other. Bidding does make that a fracture instead of a repair.

it is not a traditional or typical "free market", which means buyers and sellers can freely order and do business with each other. On res lending mortgage work that is regulated the "buyer" of the services is twice removed from choosing an appraiser...first off the borrower can not choose, we know that, second off the individual loan officers can not choose post HVCC which consolidates orders ...then on top of that the AMC model , or lender ordering division set up as AMC, does not operate the way normal buyers do who shop services for cost, the AMC shops services for profit back to them ( like a kicback to get an order )

The fact that unlike any other profession, and in fact unlike the rest of the appraisal profession, the fees on res lender mortgage side of appraising have been so severely impacted shows it is not a normal free market at work. Supply and demand...the narrow consolidation of "demand" into a small number of clients/companies skews the normal supply/demand dynamic.

 

[Carnivore]

It is a free market and supply and demand at work. As I am getting older, it does not make sense to retool into being a dental hygienist, or something like that. I also happen to still love appraisal. The mixture of analysis and communication make me so happy. I am fortunate to have a number of appraisers who are friends who do help, such as in doing work together when there is the opportunity, and referrals. Appraisers do need each other and we should try to help each other. Bidding does make that a fracture instead of a repair.

I agree with much of what you have said. Here is part of the problem. We are 100,000+ individual little one person islands of economic activity.

 

[Carnivore]

bidding is a dividing tool.

Correct...especially when you are bidding irregardless of your actual cost. So our upfront cost are how we are in business with doors open. the recurring cost come into play as we work and. then deferred cost are pretty much last. We keep deferring those cost. Some money now is Better than No Money at all and we can catch up on the next one kind of thing.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Powell, Yellen, and Bernanke are live on tv

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/watch-the-powell-bernanke-and-yellen-roundtable-live.html

 

[J Grant]

It is a free market and supply and demand at work. As I am getting older, it does not make sense to retool into being a dental hygienist, or something like that. I also happen to still love appraisal. The mixture of analysis and communication make me so happy. I am fortunate to have a number of appraisers who are friends who do help, such as in doing work together when there is the opportunity, and referrals. Appraisers do need each other and we should try to help each other. Bidding does make that a fracture instead of a repair.

Your comments indicate you do not need appraisal income to support yourself, which is a good thing since the "not free market" is essentially putting many out of business...you (and looks I am following ) are essentially out of business now despite your experience and competence due to this "bid" system which is really a form of kickbacks. If I ever do find interest from legal side will let you know.

 

[The Bob]

I am looking into dental assistant or hygienist from what I researched of the courses are relatively straightaway to license, the pay is good, lots of part time and full time work out there...

imo whatever any of us look into it should be a field of high demand, the opposite of appraising where demand for appraisers is shrinking . I opened up Craigslist and looked where there was a lot of need in jobs ( monster etc can look in but CL is simple) then which jobs paid better , what might be part time or full time, then what the schooling/training entails.

There area lot of possibilities once we really focus...some nice pay jobs need no schooling as well..I think when any of us get serious we will find plenty of options.

Pharmacy tech is also a good choice.

 

[ucbruin]

Pharmacy tech is also a good choice.

$15.00/hour....
I understand can be stressful due to liability and privacy laws....