RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
I see robots as mostly replacing inspections - and home inspectors. In fact they will do both at the same time. They will have a detachable appendix (if you prefer, appendage or attachment - but we need a new word for this) for crawling around crawlspaces and the attic. They will have eyes that see all wavelengths of light from infrared to UV. They will be able to detect heat and moisture. They will probabably be able to detect various kinds of insects and identify them, they will spot mold and cracks. They will if needed take and store surface swipes for fungal, bacteria and chemical contamination. They will move swiftly and carefully between all floors and rooms, taking pictures and measuring at the same time. The will have an attached drone to fly inside or outside as needed to take further measurements and pictures. They will communicate everything via WiFi to a central computer that will then process the information, fast enough to provide instructions to the robot to do any further checks. Such a robot will drive itself to the next house.
I am very sure, that an absolutely thorough house inspection and measurement, including photos for a 2,000 sf home, will take less than 20-30 minutes. Depending on driving time, it can inspect 20+ houses/day, 140 houses/week. Of course in rural areas, much less. Because it doesn't have to take time to do reports, it can do nothing but boring inspections 100 times better than most appraisers.
You will be able to get within the appraisal report, all of the inspection details of a typical appraisal and home inspection, - plus much more.
The MARS regression and AI system on the central computer will be using advanced MARS, probably Python, and no doubt AGI to finish off the reports. Clients will be charged for all information they order in the format they desire. However, the inspection will most likely. be a full inspection that collects all data for statistical analysis to build regression models and improve neighborhood definitions and so on and so forth. That is to say, regardless of what the client orders, the robot will likely take the opportunity to gather all the information that it can reasonably collect, for further analysis or reuse.
There will be appraisers or rather "Valuation Engineers" to review and audit the whole process and randomly selected reports (at least). The difference is that the Valuation Engineers will have to be well versed in all the analytical and report methods used --- which will take years of education and experience.
Initially people will have to help out and accompany robots; but, eventually, the robots should be able to handle everything themselves. Nonetheless a "central bureau" will be in constant contact with the robots and have access to what they see and hear. So, they can be monitored remotely. Robots will likely have advanced security features to help prevent theft, but it's hard to say how far the engineers and manufacturers will go in that respect.
As a consequence of the above, the GSE labor force will be largely gutted out and the remainder transformed. AMCs will disappear, the the survival of current appraisers software companies becomes very questionable.
Reports will become largely highly reliable and objective!
So, I would say this is 10-15 years out.
Everything will be driven by accuracy, objectivity and efficiency.
- In any case, once certain political obstructions are removed....
All of the manpower and money being spent on discrimination and diversity issues is a waste. These issues will largely dissipate with the advent of AI and robotics. The cause is any case futile. In fact, the effort now being spent by many (including myself) to undermine the current appraisals system, is mostly wasted effort: TAF, the AI and most the rest of the current appraisal infrastructure is doomed to die within 10-15 years, or at least undergo a major transformation, ....
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