October surprise

[Carnivore]

Investing long term is the best way for little people to get ahead on retirement. Even if you only invested $10 a month in long run 30 years or more it adds up. Especially if along that path where your income increases you can add to it monthly.

I did not do that because I joined the military and stayed for 20 years. I wish I had invested in a growth fund over an above my military retirement would be even better .

 

[Gobears81]

So many Elliott Wave charts on X that attempt to project the trajectory of the market are mostly showing an A-B-C of this correction. Maybe they are right, but EWT has fallen flat on its face over the past several months. Some of the charts declined right to their 50 day MA on Friday, so it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that it was just a one-day pullback. Interested to see how the chips fall over the course of the next couple of days.

 

[Carnivore]

The U.S. economy in October 2025 is showing signs of cautious stability and moderate growth, though challenges remain. Here's a snapshot of the current landscape:

Interest Rates and Monetary Policy​

• The Federal Reserve recently cut the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.00%–4.25%, signaling concerns about a slowing economy crestwoodadvisors.com.
• Projections suggest further rate reductions may follow in 2025 and 2026, aiming for a “soft landing” without triggering inflation crestwoodadvisors.com.

Growth and Inflation​

• GDP growth is forecasted between 2.9%–3.2%, indicating steady expansion The Global Statistics.
• Inflation has moderated, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.4% year-over-year, and PCE inflation at 2.5%, both within the Fed’s target range The Global Statistics.

Labor Market​

• Unemployment is stable at 4.1%, reflecting near full employment The Global Statistics.
• Job growth continues, with 147,000 new jobs added in June 2025, particularly in state government and healthcare sectors The Global Statistics.
• Wage growth is healthy at 3.5% annually, and total compensation is up 3.6%, outpacing inflation The Global Statistics.

️ Policy and Structural Shifts​

• Recent changes in tariffs, immigration policy, and federal legislation have slightly dampened growth projections. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised its 2025 GDP growth estimate downward by 0.5 percentage points due to these factors Congressional Budget Office.

Overall, the U.S. economy is navigating a period of strategic adaptation with resilient consumer demand, moderating inflation, and responsive monetary policy. While not booming, it's progressing steadily with a focus on long-term sustainability.

 

[Carnivore]

sources for the above

October 2025 Economic Update: The Fed Cut Rates and Closing Time for the US Government - Crestwood Advisors

The Federal Reserve delivered a 0.25% rate cut in September, signaling more to come. Explore what the Fed’s latest dot plot, inflation trends, and government shutdown mean for markets and the economy in this month’s Economic Update.

www.crestwoodadvisors.com

United States Economy Statistics in the U.S. 2025

United States Economy in the U.S. in 2025 The U.S. economy in 2025 is marked by a period of steady recovery, strategic adaptation, and cautious optimism. Following a volatile decade of global disruptions, inflationary pressures, and workforce realignments, the American…

www.theglobalstatistics.com

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61738

 

[Carnivore]

FTR I am not as smart as all of you on investments and reading data to make investment decisions

 

[ucbruin]

Investing long term is the best way for little people to get ahead on retirement. Even if you only invested $10 a month in long run 30 years or more it adds up. Especially if along that path where your income increases you can add to it monthly.

I did not do that because I joined the military and stayed for 20 years. I wish I had invested in a growth fund over an above my military retirement would be even better .

20 years....
Okay....
You earned your VA bennies....

 

[Fernando]

FTR I am not as smart as all of you on investments and reading data to make investment decisions

Having a degree in finance, I learn that a diverse stock portfolio is best way to invest.
Individual stocks I bought been hit and miss.
But consistent buying stocks/Index every year has been best way to make money.
I find it more profitable than real estate which has too much property management issues.
The appreciation of real estate is when I sell the property and most likely I will give the capital gain free to my children.

 

[Carnivore]

I have flipped three houses, made really good money on two. the third one I found hidden issue and so I still made money just not what I was hoping. ooops I forgot one. I had a mutual fund I had to get my cash out to pay off the rental house I had to give to my ex-wife.

 

[Gobears81]

Having a degree in finance, I learn that a diverse stock portfolio is best way to invest.
Individual stocks I bought been hit and miss.
But consistent buying stocks/Index every year has been best way to make money.

Diversification = diworsification in this market IMO. Seems like a lot of the non-tech/AI sectors are stagnant in this economy, but not really opportunistically priced. Finding cash to be a better hedge.

 

[Fernando]

I'm appraising this SF property. I'm shocked to see the price has dropped so much over the years. I thought all real estate increased in value in Bay Area.
The progressives really ruined property values in SF.
It would have been better buying stocks and not incur the real estate value loss.