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ACE

If you value your life based on what computers and robots can do, the answer is obvious...
Forgive me if I am wrong, but I think you missed the point.

The point was that when AI takes your job and you are sitting at home collecting universal income.....does you life have meaning? Man to a man....the provider.

When the average person with below or normal IQ cannot get a job because the trucks drive themselves, the robot flips the burgers, the AI takes your order at the drive trough window, when the machines pick the apples......

when you walk in the door and have to tell your wife that you were laid off becuse the company invested in software or AI and your position is no longer needed...appraisers sound familiar?


What is the meaning of life? I'll let you answer that one.
 
Forgive me if I am wrong, but I think you missed the point.

The point was that when AI takes your job and you are sitting at home collecting universal income.....does you life have meaning? Man to a man....the provider.

When the average person with below or normal IQ cannot get a job because the trucks drive themselves, the robot flips the burgers, the AI takes your order at the drive trough window, when the machines pick the apples......

when you walk in the door and have to tell your wife that you were laid off becuse the company invested in software or AI and your position is no longer needed...appraisers sound familiar?


What is the meaning of life? I'll let you answer that one.
I think maybe you missed the point. :)

The answer you're looking for was in my answer. IF the measure of a person's worth ('provider' males aside) is in what computers and robots can do - then I'd submit that life wouldn't have much meaning. If, however, the measure of a person's worth is in what they have done, are doing, and will do for others, then their life should have immense value.
 
Forgive me if I am wrong, but I think you missed the point.

The point was that when AI takes your job and you are sitting at home collecting universal income.....does you life have meaning? Man to a man....the provider.

When the average person with below or normal IQ cannot get a job because the trucks drive themselves, the robot flips the burgers, the AI takes your order at the drive trough window, when the machines pick the apples......

when you walk in the door and have to tell your wife that you were laid off becuse the company invested in software or AI and your position is no longer needed...appraisers sound familiar?


What is the meaning of life? I'll let you answer that one.
Well, as of now, waivers have not replaced appraisers - not even close. The vast majority of loans purchased by the GSEs are still based on appraisals, and that is not likely to change in the near future.

And, before anyone points out the recently announced expansion, yes, even after that the vast majority will be based on appraisals.
 
Unless I am missing some points here, I don't understand how comparing default rates on loans justifies a particular valuation method?

There are two fundamental credit risks in underwriting:
1) Likelihood of default--aka default rate.
2) Estimation of loss GIVEN default.

A CD-secured loan to someone with a 400 credit score will have very low #2 risk...but very high #1 risk.
A 99% LTV loan to a successful surgeon with an 850 credit score and 3% DTI has a very low #1 risk, but a potentially high #2 risk.

Factors affecting #1 are credit score and DTI primarily. The primary factor affecting #2 is LTV. Whichever valuation method is used on the origination end of a purchase/refi is ONLY speaking to #2 above. It has NOTHING to do with #1, so why are we justifying a valuation choice by looking at data the valuation method has no control over (default rate)?
 
I think maybe you missed the point. :)

The answer you're looking for was in my answer. IF the measure of a person's worth ('provider' males aside) is in what computers and robots can do - then I'd submit that life wouldn't have much meaning. If, however, the measure of a person's worth is in what they have done, are doing, and will do for others, then their life should have immense value.
Gotcha. As always, I'll let morgan Freeman explain it.

 
When you switched to digital photography, did you do that because you hated the local one hour photo shop?
Or, did you do that because you found something that was just as good (at least for your purpose), more efficient and less costly?

The performance of ACE is evaluated in comparison to the performance of appraisals (see attached document referenced earlier). So, if appraisers want to influence waiver use, then the best thing they can do is provide good appraisals - appraisals with supported adjustments (including market condition adjustments when warranted) and appraisals that are made subject to repair and subject to inspection, when warranted.

The comparison between digital photography and appraisal waivers (or ACE) is an oversimplification that doesn’t hold up when examined critically. Digital photography didn’t replace the one-hour photo shop because it was "just as good"—it became a new standard due to technological advancements that improved quality, accessibility, and user control. Appraisal waivers, on the other hand, are not necessarily an improvement, nor are they “just as good” for valuation.

The fundamental role of an appraisal goes beyond efficiency or cost-cutting; it involves a nuanced understanding of the local market, property-specific factors, and potential risks. Automated systems like ACE lack the human judgment required to assess these complexities effectively. While ACE may work in cookie-cutter scenarios, it falls short in unique or atypical properties, fluctuating market conditions, or cases where repairs, zoning issues, or legal non-conformities are at play.

Additionally, the argument that appraisers can reduce waiver use by providing "good appraisals" is a mischaracterization. Most professional appraisers already strive to deliver well-supported, credible valuations with warranted adjustments and appropriate "subject to" conditions. The problem lies in the oversimplification of property valuation by automated systems, not in the quality of appraisals.

What are the GSEs doing to ensure that professional appraisers who consistently meet their standards are rewarded with more work, while those who do not align with the GSEs' requirements stop receiving assignments? It seems counterproductive to bypass the appraisal process entirely through waivers rather than holding appraisers accountable and elevating the profession to meet evolving expectations.

Freddie Mac should focus on enhancing appraisal standards and processes rather than replacing them. Waivers might save time and money in certain cases, but they risk sacrificing accuracy, reliability, and the ability to account for the myriad of factors that a skilled appraiser brings to the table.
 
Whether they're right or wrong about these numbers their note at least explains some of the reasoning that's been going into their decision making.

And just in case our resident flat-earther missed it, they included this blurb on the first page of their note:

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For anyone who wants to see how ACE performs, as compared to appraisals, here is a link to some actual data and analysis.
https://capitalmarkets.freddiemac.com/crt/docs/pdfs/SF_CS_ACEResearchNote.pdf

Delinquency rate is not the proper metric to use when comparing effectiveness of ACE / waivers versus appraisals. The purpose of the valuation is not to prevent delinquency or default, but to manage the amount of losses in the event of default. It is credit risk (credit score, employment history, and income) that are linked to delinquency and default rates.

You are an intelligent person so I know this is not news to you. The delinquency rate metric is just being used to push the use of waivers forward.

Fact is nobody will know how ACE performs compared to appraisals until there is a big decline in market values and then someone analyzes losses on loans with appraisals versus losses on loans with waivers.
 
Reminds me of how BOA does its quick appraisal.
I go to see the loan agent.
She asks my address, and agent puts it in her computer and quickly my home value is determined and tells me I can get 80% LTV.
I think they have a limit of a million dollars so if sufficient equity, easy to apply.
 
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