AI Agents and Appraiser Oversupply

[J Grant]

Whatever allows the human to identify this information in photos, it can be taught to and learned by an AI analyzing those same photos. One incentive to keep you out of houses is to level the playing field. AI can't do smells (cat ****) or proprioception (squishy floor felt with your foot), that is until we have robots.

A good example of how to define what a "better" appraisal is would be to think about your appraisal reports, then compare it to others you have seen. Pretty obvious, no?

There is no proof AI will produce better reports of peers - it might be the other way around!

Eitehr way appraisers lose jobs if AI is the future replacement or does a significant portion of the work.

 

[Surf Cat]

This may be where a human shines, but you don't need an appraiser for those things

As evident by whom is sent out to inspect for hybrid appraisals.

 

[George Hatch]

Workers and professionals can adapt and learn whatever AI we need to - most of it will run in the bg or integrate with software - we are not programmers or coders, and there is no need to learn that, nor could we complete it if we did.
Some displaced workers can be returned, others can not or will not and there may not be enough jobs even for the ones who do.

But when AI in other fields, or even our own field, eliminates a large mass of jobs, what is your proposed solution? National leaders who set policies, company owners and business owners who decide to use human labor instead of an AI alternative might be one solution, A UI to replace some lost income another, go back to a simple barter economy live a very low-cost lifestyle for others, others will go postal and on ramps and others will turn to criminal activity. That is what I see as some outcomes -

There is no solution to the evolution and integration of technology into our economy. All there is will be adaptation. Or surrender. There's no point in trying to cast it as a moral issue as if there's some form of discretion that march of technology. It can't be done.

I strongly doubt is ever occurred to appraisers to stay loyal to 35mm film and developers for humanitarian reasons. Or to stay loyal to typists working on IBM Selectrics to fill in 2-sided report forms from Forms and Worms. Appraisers apparently weren't sufficiently "empathetic" or "emotionally intelligent" to meet your moral standards.

I didn't make human nature. I'm just watching it and refraining from conveniently ignoring it in furtherance of some hypocritical purity spiral.

 

[alebrewer]

From an existential perspective, J's concern is a fairly typical response to the unknown - fear and anxiety of how technology will replace labor as one of the means of production. And it's a valid concern. What is often overlooked, though, is the gains created by the technology. Yes - the coming AI Revolution will displace much (if not most) of the workplace - as we know it. Those gains, though, (at least theoretically) will translate into lower costs of living - which will offset some of the cost of displacement. For instance, the use of AI in prefabricated housing can be expected to lower real cost of living for market participants who choose this type of housing. And that's just one example of how AI can/should reduce the cost of living.

Artificial Intelligence: Yes, it is a Construction Game-Changer

Much like other sectors of the economy, AI is reshaping construction, revolutionizing how projects are planned and executed across the country.

www.modular.org

 

[Carnivore]

I did not go further in detail with microsoft co-pilot (free). What I plan to do is give it two different house pictures and ask for a comparison.

You can get very detailed and complex in your questions. Here is what is really scary. If you give it an address, I suspect it will be tied in with Google Earth and show and analyze the exterior. If MLS starts feeding the machine learning it will not forget and if there are pix from other sources that just compunds the problems for appraisers.

 

[George Hatch]

From an existential perspective, J's concern is a fairly typical response to the unknown - fear and anxiety of how technology will replace labor as one of the means of production. And it's a valid concern. What is often overlooked, though, is the gains created by the technology. Yes - the coming AI Revolution will displace much (if not most) of the workplace - as we know it. Those gains, though, (at least theoretically) will translate into lower costs of living - which will offset some of the cost of displacement. For instance, the use of AI in prefabricated housing can be expected to lower real cost of living for market participants who choose this type of housing. And that's just one example of how AI can/should reduce the cost of living.

Artificial Intelligence: Yes, it is a Construction Game-Changer

Much like other sectors of the economy, AI is reshaping construction, revolutionizing how projects are planned and executed across the country.

www.modular.org

JGrant and others can be (and probably are) 100% right about these concerns without it having any impact whatsoever on the outcome.

If UBI ever comes into play then the most intelligent choice a recipient can make would be to find the locations and living arrangements that will have the lowest aggregate cost of living. Optimize the purchasing power of the dole. And those locations won't be within commuting distance of any of the urban centers where "the elites" live/work.

 

[alebrewer]

JGrant and others can be (and probably are) 100% right about these concerns without it having any impact whatsoever on the outcome.

If UBI ever comes into play then the most intelligent choice a recipient can make would be to find the locations and living arrangements that will have the lowest aggregate cost of living. Optimize the purchasing power of the dole. And those locations won't be within commuting distance of any of the urban centers where "the elites" live/work.

It really does feel like we're moving fairly rapidly toward some kind of dystopian future. Self fulfilling or random events? Some of both I'd expect. Certainly doesn't help everyone's anxiety levels when we have Hollywood's portrayal of what that might look like to remind us of how bleak it could potentially be.

 

[George Hatch]

There are probably 100 other appraisers besides Bert and George Dell who are trying to figure out how to make a living in the appraisal business without doing any appraisals. How to marry PDRs + AI-qualified data + AVMs into an enhanced AVM which will be nominally "sufficient-to-use" for 90% of the SFRs out there. For sure a couple of the appraisalware vendors are already fully engaged. They don't have to be better than appraisals, they only need to be sufficient to purpose.

Grow the business large enough to attract a buyout from Corelogic or Blackrock so they can retire.

 

[J Grant]

There is no solution to the evolution and integration of technology into our economy. All there is will be adaptation. Or surrender. There's no point in trying to cast it as a moral issue as if there's some form of discretion that march of technology. It can't be done.

I strongly doubt is ever occurred to appraisers to stay loyal to 35mm film and developers for humanitarian reasons. Or to stay loyal to typists working on IBM Selectrics to fill in 2-sided report forms from Forms and Worms. Appraisers apparently weren't sufficiently "empathetic" or "emotionally intelligent" to meet your moral standards.

I didn't make human nature. I'm just watching it and refraining from conveniently ignoring it in furtherance of some hypocritical purity spiral.

You are human and thus make human nature every day with every decision, and so do I. I notice a pattern where you like to divorce decisions and outcomes from morality - even a capitalist like Elon Musk warned about the existential threat from AO.

Idk. Perhaps in the long run the evolution of humans is to reduce ourselves to a very small number since by eliminating the need for labor we are wiping out the means of survival for a majority of people - if that is God;s plan then it is -

 

[Carnivore]

I watch something the other night. Billionairs are investing heavily in AI. These data centers will take time to build. They will need nuclear reactors to meet the energy demands of these data centers. The data centers are huge.

I see priortizing demand from medical facilities first. 2nnd priority may be the financial/insurance centers. Who knows.

MY wag....I think it may be 10- years or more before they think about replacing you. Peeps entering the appraisal world now have little economic life ahead of them. PDR dudes are going to have requirements placed on them for data entry.