AI Agents and Appraiser Oversupply

[J Grant]

It really does feel like we're moving fairly rapidly toward some kind of dystopian future. Self fulfilling or random events? Some of both I'd expect. Certainly doesn't help everyone's anxiety levels when we have Hollywood's portrayal of what that might look like to remind us of how bleak it could potentially be.

The gains in efficiency or safety from traffic accidents with autonomous vehicles, though AI-driven can still have accidents) will be wiped out with loss of privacy, constant surveillance, lack of opportunity, social engineering with mass propaganda set by algorithms, etc - We are going to need to educate folks from childhood on how to deal with it. AI will make some better pharma drugs and might lead to some cures, but boy, is it going to come at a high cost to the human experience.

The book I am reading is called Artificial Intelligence, 101 Things You Must Know About Our Future ( author Rouhainen Lasse- well written in a conversational style, has lots of references , and covers AI from many different perspectives. The other book I read was co-authored by Kissenger it was interesting but had too much back story -

 

[alebrewer]

will COULD be wiped out with loss of privacy, constant surveillance, lack of opportunity, social engineering with mass propaganda set by algorithms, etc

Fixed it for ya. At this point, we have no idea what will happen. Your assertion that all this 'will' happen is only conjecture.

 

[George Hatch]

You are human and thus make human nature every day with every decision, and so do I. I notice a pattern where you like to divorce decisions and outcomes from morality - even a capitalist like Elon Musk warned about the existential threat from AO.

Well, I do work as an appraiser in my day job and my job description does include compartmentalizing as best I can between my personal opinions vs what the data is actually saying. WRT what we say we do, the judgement part is supposed to come AFTER the analysis, not in lieu of it.

As I already told you, I have that INTJ type personality so appraising is one of the few occupations which are ideally suited to my personal defaults. I don't have to fight any of my defaults to do what I need to do, whereas if I was a lawyer I would struggle in that role.

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The other thing is that you and I approach these issues from opposing directions.

A Conflict of Visions. (Dr Thomas Sowell, 1987) That guy makes Noam Chomsky look like a retard.

You take the unconstrained view (how you think people should act) whereas I take the constrained view (how I think people actually will act). These are somewhat opposing frames of reference which result in different expectations for the outcome.

If you orient your politics based on the idea "people are better than that" as your minimum expectation of people's conduct will look very different from what I expect of people when my politics are oriented to "people are not better than that - people ARE that".

Perhaps people "should" act altruistically and empathetically, but IRL people usually "actually" act selfishly even if those self-interests include their own self-image as being a good person. Enough so that acting from a point of genuine altruism becomes atypical to the point of being noteworthy.

 

[glenn walker]

The residential appraisal model is not wiped out by AI but by users having realized that appraisals are for book values not mortgage risk as they manage over a trillion dollars of mortgage backed securities and unlike the days lenders held mortgages for 30 years. The appraiser today in residential provides no real value to the risk of the portfolio's and so where AI role comes in on the portfolio side of management not the physical asset.

 

[Vermonter]

If you really want current up to date info on what is happening in AI read the articles/blog at HuggingFace. It's one of the tabs that opens with my browser so I can keep current.

You can monitor the growth/evolution in close to real time, research different models and their functions/strengths/weaknesses and even take courses if so inclined.

 

[J Grant]

Jan. 28, 2025, 12:08 p.m. ET
The Vatican called for constant oversight of artificial intelligence on Tuesday, warning about the potential for “the shadow of evil” in the technology, which it said offered “a source of tremendous opportunities but also profound risks.”

In a new document meant to advise the Catholic faithful, the church warned that the technology should be used to complement human intelligence, “rather than replace its richness.” The document was approved by Pope Francis, who has repeatedly warned that the application of artificial intelligence should be grounded in ethical and moral considerations.

“In all areas where humans are called to make decisions, the shadow of evil also looms here,” the Vatican said in the paper. It added, “The moral evaluation of this technology will need to take into account how it is directed and used.”

The paper “is a synthesis of a lot of the existing materials that have been developing organically over the last while,” drawing on Francis’s past statements and writings to look at A.I.’s effect on relationships, education, warfare and work, said the Rev. Paul Tighe, one of the people who worked on it. The paper was written over six months by a Vatican team in consultation with various experts, including those in A.I.

 

[J Grant]

Well, I do work as an appraiser in my day job and my job description does include compartmentalizing as best I can between my personal opinions vs what the data is actually saying. WRT what we say we do, the judgement part is supposed to come AFTER the analysis, not in lieu of it.

As I already told you, I have that INTJ type personality so appraising is one of the few occupations which are ideally suited to my personal defaults. I don't have to fight any of my defaults to do what I need to do, whereas if I was a lawyer I would struggle in that role.

-----------------------
The other thing is that you and I approach these issues from opposing directions.

A Conflict of Visions. (Dr Thomas Sowell, 1987) That guy makes Noam Chomsky look like a retard.

You take the unconstrained view (how you think people should act) whereas I take the constrained view (how I think people actually will act). These are somewhat opposing frames of reference which result in different expectations for the outcome.

If you orient your politics based on the idea "people are better than that" as your minimum expectation of people's conduct will look very different from what I expect of people when my politics are oriented to "people are not better than that - people ARE that".

Perhaps people "should" act altruistically and empathetically, but IRL people usually "actually" act selfishly even if those self-interests include their own self-image as being a good person. Enough so that acting from a point of genuine altruism becomes atypical to the point of being noteworthy.

Good points; however, I am not trying to dictate how people "should" act; I am discussing how people can act, and that is its choice to do A or B, including in business - especially for those at the upper levels, and that each choice has consequences.

since none of us are savings, we might not be capable of being altruistic all of the or even most of the time (I sure am not), but if we aspire to it, we might make more choices based on it than if we don't. And many people, probably including you, do make that choice, such as when they sacrifice for their kids.

Slave and child labor made sense financially, but over time, the moral arguments won out, and they were abolished.

 

[RCA]

The problem with current appraisal is that it is completely blinded by the simplistic short-cut procedures that have always been in place for decades. Only a few people in the world have any really good understanding of accurately estimating market value. For example, appraisers always head straight for adjustments when calculating adjusted sale prices, bypassing all kinds of other things. They don't know what they are doing, because no one has has ever taught them different. They are nearly all truly blindsided. And now, AI comes along, and it's also taught the same dumb crap as the appraisers. It's really not AI, it is just automated stupidity.

Now having said that, yes, eventually valuation work will be largely automated .... because computers can be honed to perfection, can deal with nearly infinite complications in protocols, procedure, tedious details and work 24 hours/day. And people really don't want to have to compete with that, they were meant for better things. No?

 

[Non Sequitur]

Some of that decline is attributable to the big reduction in transactions, much of which was driven by the increases in mortgage interest rates. I'm seeing datasets where the number of sales in 2023-2024 have been down by 40% when compared to previous periods.

25% of unique licenses didn't complete a single report or did they starve out? I think they starved out.

 

[George Hatch]

Good points; however, I am not trying to dictate how people "should" act; I am discussing how people can act, and that is its choice to do A or B, including in business - especially for those at the upper levels, and that each choice has consequences.

since none of us are savings, we might not be capable of being altruistic all of the or even most of the time (I sure am not), but if we aspire to it, we might make more choices based on it than if we don't. And many people, probably including you, do make that choice, such as when they sacrifice for their kids.

Slave and child labor made sense financially, but over time, the moral arguments won out, and they were abolished.

I didn't say you were trying to dictate it; I'm saying that's what you commonly cite as your minimum expectation. Like when you get annoyed at me for not being empathetic. You can't refute the observation itself but take offense at my tone and how it makes you feel. What the kids these days refer to as tone policing.

From my perspective, "fair" is the actual minimum we can reasonably expect of others, not "empathetic". Empathetic is normally considered "extra" and most people who proclaim themselves to be empathetic tend to be wholly intolerant of others if/when their opinions and interests conflict. No self-awareness, intellectual consistency or personal integrity whatsoever.

When I sacrifice for family I am doing so in what I consider to be my own interests, so that's not an expression of altrusim, either. When I advocate for appraisers doing right by everyone that's out of self-interest, too; not out of any expression of altruism. Its in my own economic interests for the appraisal profession to continue to retain some modicum of trust from the public because that credibility for objectivity and impartiality is our primary stock in trade. Whenever an appraiser gets caught lying, cheating or stealing in an appraisal assignment that hurts me and every other appraiser because it undermines the public's perception of our credibility and therefore is also undermining our limited REL. Even if only by a little.