All Solar, Et Al, In 12 Years?

[Randolph Kinney]

Where art thou global warming? Hiding out at the south pole

Image Credit:RSS

As can be seen in the above graph, the south polar region has been cooling for the whole satellite record. The cooling is not statistically significant, however over the complete time span of the satellite record of almost 37 years, it should not be happening if we have global warming. Since the cooling is over the whole satellite record, it could be much longer if we had earlier records.

It is understandable that if carbon dioxide is really the control knob, that all places on Earth would not warm at the same rate. It is also understandable that for short periods of time, there may be cooling in some areas where other factors have a stronger influence than carbon dioxide.

It is also understandable that if carbon dioxide goes from 0.028% to 0.040%, that the effect would be greatest at the poles where the additional carbon dioxide does not have to compete with 2% to 4% water vapor as may be the case in the tropics. Since very cold temperatures can hold very small amounts of water vapor, the relative effect of more carbon dioxide should be largest in the polar regions. But why are just the northern polar regions showing larger amounts of warming? It is not as if the carbon dioxide is upside down in the south.

The time of almost 37 years is also significant. Sometimes, climate is defined as to what happened over the last 30 years. And some may feel that the global standstill of almost 19 years is not enough time to draw the correct conclusions. Since 37 years is above 30 years, this cooling over a relatively large part of the Earth requires an explanation. By the way, Ken’s Kingdom and RSS also show several other time periods of no slope for different parts of the Earth.

Different regions of the Earth are either warming at different rates or even cooling. Then the various regions contradict each other as to what is really occurring. With so much uncertainty, perhaps we should wait to really see what is really occurring before spending trillions on a problem that may not even exist?

 

[Meandering]

And now it's global COOLING! Return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 29% in a year

• 533,000 more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
• BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
• Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

chilly Arctic summer has left 533,000 more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 29 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.

In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.

The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter climate change.

Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.

The continuing furore caused by The Mail on Sunday’s revelations – which will now be amplified by the return of the Arctic ice sheet – has forced the UN’s climate change body to reconsider its position.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was due in October to start publishing its Fifth Assessment Report – a huge three-volume study issued every six or seven years. It will hold a pre-summit in Stockholm later this month.

http://video.dailymail.co.uk/video/1418450360/2014/10/1418450360_3826560247001_arctic-antarctic.mp4

: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/And-global-COOLING-Return-Arctic-ice-cap-grows-29-year.html#ixzz3pPzyoh3a

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[Meandering]

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

At the heart of the row lie two questions: the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years – so far, just 0.8C – is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability.

In its draft report, the IPCC says it is ‘95 per cent confident’ that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007.

This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’

She pointed to long-term cycles in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age.

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: ‘We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.

‘The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.’

Others are more cautious. Dr Ed Hawkins, of Reading University, drew the graph published by The Mail on Sunday in March showing how far world temperatures have diverged from computer predictions. He admitted the cycles may have caused some of the recorded warming, but insisted that natural variability alone could not explain all of the temperature rise over the past 150 years.

Nonetheless, the belief that summer Arctic ice is about to disappear remains an IPCC tenet, frequently flung in the face of critics who point to the pause.

Yet there is mounting evidence that Arctic ice levels are cyclical. Data uncovered by climate historians show that there was a massive melt in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by intense re-freezes that ended only in 1979 – the year the IPCC says that shrinking began.

Professor Curry said the ice’s behaviour over the next five years would be crucial, both for understanding the climate and for future policy. ‘Arctic sea ice is the indicator to watch,’ she said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/And-global-COOLING-Return-Arctic-ice-cap-grows-29-year.html#ixzz3pQ184USK

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[Meandering]

Study Predicts Decades Of Global Cooling Ahead

A new study out of the United Kingdom predicts the Earth is about to go through a major climatic shift that could mean decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the United States.

Scientists at the University of Southampton predict that a cooling of the Atlantic Ocean could cool global temperatures a half a degree Celsius and may offer a “brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures,” according to their study.

This cooling phase in the Atlantic will influence “temperature, rainfall, drought and even the frequency of hurricanes in many regions of the world,” says Dr. Gerard McCarthy. The study’s authors based their results on ocean sensor arrays and 100 years of sea-level data.

“Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic vary between warm and cold over time-scales of many decades,” said McCarthy, the study’s lead author. “This decadal variability, called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences.”

“The observations of [AMO] from [sensor arrays], over the past ten years, show that it is declining,” Dr. David Smeed, a co-author, said in a statement. “As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.”

Researchers argue that a negative AMO will bring “drier summers in Britain and Ireland, accelerated sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States, and drought in the developing countries of the Sahel region,” according to the study’s press release. Interestingly enough, the study also predicts fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S.– a result of a cooler Atlantic.

Atlantic cooling can impact the climate for decades, according to researchers, on timescales from 20 to 30 years. This means cooler global temperatures and changing weather patterns could unfold over the next two to three decades, possibly extending the so-called “pause” in global warming.

For years, scientists have been debating why satellite temperature data shows there have been about 18 years with no warming trend. Surface temperature data shows a similar pause in warming for the last 10 to 15 years.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/28/study-predicts-decades-of-global-cooling-ahead/#ixzz3pQ2oH9P8

Now see, this all makes sense.

More artic ice, ice is heavy, it pushes down on the ocean water and displaces the water which then rises up on the land, creating "rising seas"

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[Randolph Kinney]

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance the IPCC are demanding more than 1,500 changes to the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’. They say its current draft does not properly explain the pause.

the extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels, as well as how much of the warming over the past 150 years – so far, just 0.8C – is down to human greenhouse gas emissions and how much is due to natural variability.

US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’

‘The IPCC claims its models show a pause of 15 years can be expected. But that means that after only a very few years more, they will have to admit they are wrong.’

Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, was one of the first to investigate the ocean cycles. He said: ‘We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.

This is too funny. The climate change deniers are right!

Great post Marion.

 

[Meandering]

Yeah but,

If you go to Google Earth, and look at the north pole there isn't any ice, no matter where you slide the time line to, not any winter, not any summer. If you look at the south pole, sometime around 1999 that ice gets smaller and never gets any larger in any winter.

This is just getting to be freaking ridiculous.
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[Meandering]

Cold Temperatures and the North Pole

The stratosphere—a layer of the atmosphere that occurs from 10-30 miles above the ground—was unusually cold this past spring. Though these colder than normal temperatures did not affect conditions on the ground, they did impact the layer of ozone that protects Earth from the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. Chlorine molecules in the stratosphere are usually no threat to the ozone layer—except in extremely cold temperatures where they react, changing from inert forms of chlorine to highly reactive forms. Once the polar night ends (the period of time whereby the pole receives no daylight for weeks at a time), the presence of the reactive chlorine along with sunlight are able to break the bonds that hold the ozone molecule together. An ozone hole—or thinning of the ozone layer—may form if these reactions occur over large areas. Currently, the ozone layer over the South Pole is transitioning from winter to spring, and is experiencing the same, dramatic ozone depletion as was seen in the North Pole six months ago.
Usually the North Pole does not get cold enough for these reactions to occur, but this year’s January through March temperatures did provide the proper conditions for ozone depletion. These images show the large areas of the stratosphere that experienced colder than average temperatures (colored blue) in January-March of 2011, using data from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on board the NOAA POES satellites. The historical average is calculated over the 1978 - 2011 period. Atmospheric temperature data from MSU and AMSU provide one of the longest, and most complex continuous records of satellite data, dating back to 1978 and spanning 14 different satellites. The data from each satellite must be inter-calibrated to provide reliable climate data records.
On October 27, 2011, the NASA NPP satellite will launch, carrying the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder. The ATMS sensor will continue the 33 year data record of MSU/AMSU and will be used by NOAA to continue to provide accurate weather forecasts, along with better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=864&MediaTypeID=1

So, the colder the north pole is, the more ozone depletion we get.

Should we then be trying to keep the place warmer?

.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Yeah but,

If you go to Google Earth, and look at the north pole there isn't any ice, no matter where you slide the time line to, not any winter, not any summer. If you look at the south pole, sometime around 1999 that ice gets smaller and never gets any larger in any winter.

This is just getting to be freaking ridiculous.
.

Google Earth is not meant to show polar view or track them on a continuous time scale. Try this one.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Cold Temperatures and the North Pole

The stratosphere—a layer of the atmosphere that occurs from 10-30 miles above the ground—was unusually cold this past spring. Though these colder than normal temperatures did not affect conditions on the ground, they did impact the layer of ozone that protects Earth from the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation. Chlorine molecules in the stratosphere are usually no threat to the ozone layer—except in extremely cold temperatures where they react, changing from inert forms of chlorine to highly reactive forms. Once the polar night ends (the period of time whereby the pole receives no daylight for weeks at a time), the presence of the reactive chlorine along with sunlight are able to break the bonds that hold the ozone molecule together. An ozone hole—or thinning of the ozone layer—may form if these reactions occur over large areas. Currently, the ozone layer over the South Pole is transitioning from winter to spring, and is experiencing the same, dramatic ozone depletion as was seen in the North Pole six months ago.
Usually the North Pole does not get cold enough for these reactions to occur, but this year’s January through March temperatures did provide the proper conditions for ozone depletion. These images show the large areas of the stratosphere that experienced colder than average temperatures (colored blue) in January-March of 2011, using data from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on board the NOAA POES satellites. The historical average is calculated over the 1978 - 2011 period. Atmospheric temperature data from MSU and AMSU provide one of the longest, and most complex continuous records of satellite data, dating back to 1978 and spanning 14 different satellites. The data from each satellite must be inter-calibrated to provide reliable climate data records.
On October 27, 2011, the NASA NPP satellite will launch, carrying the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder. The ATMS sensor will continue the 33 year data record of MSU/AMSU and will be used by NOAA to continue to provide accurate weather forecasts, along with better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=864&MediaTypeID=1

So, the colder the north pole is, the more ozone depletion we get.

Should we then be trying to keep the place warmer?

.

Whatever Happened to the Ozone Hole?
Twenty-five years later, the lingering "hole" over Antarctica is close to closing—and that may not be entirely a good thing.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100505-science-environment-ozone-hole-25-years/

Can't make up their minds? CFCs were blamed for making the ozone hole larger. Now the ozone hole has shrunk. CO2 emitted by man, aka Global warming?

 

[Meandering]

So how come NASA"s story is different than the one from the UK?