Appraisal Bias

[Fernando]

OMG. This should go without saying in a forum of professional appraisers but you seem to be making a strong case for the necessity of drawing the picture in crayon so it can't be misinterpreted.

A - If a neighborhood composition is varied (like this one) and is yielding only 1-2 comparable sales a year then that quantity/comparability of the data will never lead to a reliable AVM output. As far as straight statistical analyses goes we don't even start getting into statistically meaningful datasets with less than 30 datapoints.

B - Even if an AVM did work here, the effective date of the appraisal in question was 2020, not 06/2023. So a $1,417,500 AVM outcome (which still isn't $1.5M) in 2023 cannot be considered proof that the 2020 value of $1.5M was reasonable. That's not me fixating on trivia, either. It's just common sense. Or should be, anyway.

You should give up. You obviously don't have what it takes to defend your opinions on this one.

Zillow uses AVM which invested millions into a computer model which uses data (I assume) from past time line and different neighborhoods. It can be off and there is an explanation. AI will one day gets it better.
I can't go back in time in 2020 to check with Zillow so I can not make comments back then but it was during Covid and real estate market was challenging at that time.

 

[Zoe]

Many people pay tons of money just for a view. They do. You can believe it or not. Waterfront properties are prime examples of how many many people pay tons of money for a view. Mountain top views are similar.

Think about condos with views vs condos with no view and difference in prices and rents. Same facility. One has awesome view. One has view of another building. Apartments are same way. Single family residential same way. Hotel rooms are same way.

 

[George Hatch]

I don't know what that view would have been valued at. It would have taken me a long time to analyze that based on different factors. I could have analyzed cost they spent on it and what their motivations were for spending a ton of money at that site. That view would have been hard to analyze and would have likely took a while to complete the appraisal.

To be point blank, I would have read the owner's motivations to start and their expenditures on the site. That would have only been my starting point. My inspection and reading motivations is the easy part.

Views, huh? You're really scratching there. Look at what they ended up with in their remodel. If there had been a significant view they would have installed a lot more floor-to-ceiling glass. And a lot more balcony on the 2nd level. But they didn't do that, did they?

As for starting out with costs, I don't know why you would even consider that. Every appraiser understands cost does not equal value, and room additions virtually NEVER return their full costs of construction. As evidenced in the market by the (reportedly) same sized home selling 17 months later in an appreciating market trend for $1.1M.

 

[Fernando]

Many people pay tons of money just for a view. They do. You can believe it or not. Waterfront properties are prime examples of how many many people pay tons of money for a view. Moutain top views are similar.

Think about condos with views vs condos with no view and difference in prices and rents.

You're right Zoe. I would pay a ton of money for a good view. I see value in water views. Not much for mountain views personally.

 

[Zoe]

You're right Zoe. I would pay a ton of money for a good view. I see value in water views. Not much for mountain views personally.

You take a bunch of trips too. I am sure you ask for the best view you can get on many places you have stayed.

 

[Zoe]

You would like some mountain views Fernando. Wear shorts in the day at the bottom and start the fire at night on the mountain top with fabulous view for coffee in the morning. Few clouds and bears hanging out around you.

Don't feed the bears. You can get in serious trouble in TN for feeding the bears in Smoky Mountains. The bears are wild and not meant to be tamed.

Fernando, I am not sure that treat you gave me is enough. You look pretty sweet meat though. LOL

 

[Fernando]

You take a bunch of trips too. I am sure you ask for the best view you can get on many places you have stayed.

On cruise ship, nothing beats an ocean view from balcony. Love standing on balcony with not much clothes looking out.
Then several weeks later on high rise hotel, I was disappointed with nearby towering office buildings with small bay view.

 

[Fernando]

You would like some mountain views Fernando. Wear shorts in the day at the bottom and start the fire at night on the mountain top with fabulous view for coffee in the morning. Few clouds and bears hanging out around you.

Don't feed the bears. You can get in serious trouble in TN for feeding the bears in Smoky Mountains. The bears are wild and not meant to be tamed.

In San Francisco to the North you can have ocean, Golden Gate Bridge, and bay views. Increadible. That's where Robin Williams and Sharon Stone had their homes in Sea Cliff neighborhood.
To the West, homes can have panoramic ocean views. To the East, homes have bay views. That's why SF is such a special place blessed in location.

 

[glenn walker]

In San Francisco to the North you can have ocean, Golden Gate Bridge, and bay views. Increadible. That's where Robin Williams and Sharon Stone had their homes in Sea Cliff neighborhood.
To the West, homes can have panoramic ocean views. To the East, homes have bay views. That's why SF is such a special place blessed in location.

And you live in that S -Hole called Milpitas LMAO

 

[Fernando]

And you live in that S -Hole called Milpitas LMAO

I don't live in Milpitas. Stop putting down that CA city.