Appraisal Statistics

[DWiley]

If you are well versed in real estate data and statistics then you would understand that paired sales is as reliable as it gets.

I am gonna have to have a new keyboard

 

[Joe Flacco]

I am gonna have to have a new keyboard

 

[ucbruin]

You totally missed my point. What percentage of practicing appraisers do you honestly think actually apply those recognized methods and techniques that you cite? And, in comparison, what percentage are simply using "the list."

If a big percentage were really using recognized methods, then how is it that a few years ago Fannie's data showed that so many were basically using $30/SF for almost all properties?

Ding, ding, ding, ding....

1. $30/SF base GLA adjustments...
Sliding scale...

2. Field appraiser as well as review appraiser...

3. Of course you're correct that rarely, if ever, do appraisers, in real life, consistently apply any methodology, when determining adjustments. Again that includes AMC reviewers or direct lender reviewers..

 

[Joe Flacco]

Larger the data set more noise or no?

Then how can you say this?

Yes. Hence, the great irony (in my mind at least) of some of the posts in this thread, which are critical of the application of mathematically accepted statistical methods while,at the same time, inherently defending the use of very small sample sets (three to six comps) refined with adjustments that, truth be told, are all too commonly supported only by PFA analysis. To me, it seems as some inhabitants of glass-based dwellings are tossing about some mighty big geologic orbs. I urge caution.

 

[J Grant]

You totally missed my point. What percentage of practicing appraisers do you honestly think actually apply those recognized methods and techniques that you cite? And, in comparison, what percentage are simply using "the list."

If a big percentage were really using recognized methods, then how is it that a few years ago Fannie's data showed that so many were basically using $30/SF for almost all properties?

I can't answer that, but the question might be, if there is an over supply of appraisers in many areas , why aren't clients finding the better appraisers from the supply instead of hiring many who use "the list" ( generic/rote etc ). Though it could be many properties in lower price ranges end up with $30 sf a contributory value.... can't answer everything lol Though I can try....oy veh crazy week work wise head exploding over a hard one .

 

[J Grant]

I agree many of us could benefit from more exposure to statistics even if we choose not to use them.

 

[ucbruin]

I can't answer that, but the question might be, if there is an over supply of appraisers in many areas , why aren't clients finding the better appraisers from the supply instead of hiring many who use "the list" ( generic/rote etc ). Though it could be many properties in lower price ranges end up with $30 sf a contributory value.... can't answer everything lol Though I can try....oy veh crazy week work wise head exploding over a hard one .

Are you going to say that you don't carry a "base figure" in your head for adjustments...
And just slide the scale up or down to suit your subject and comps?
I doubt most appraisers are re-inventing the "wheel" of adjustments....

 

[Artemis Fowl]

I always liked the term Predictive Modeling. Stats are a tool to aid in the creation of a predictive model. Keeping them in that perspective helps IMO.

 

[Mike Kennedy]

The adjustment grid on a 1004 is nothing more than the application of a statistical model, and we have been doing that for many decades now. So, what alternative do you suggest?

I suggest that when carefully selected, vetted and competitive comparables are utilized by Appraisers with local experience and expertise who have actually "visited" (exterior at least) them, confirmed the info with agents involved and local building and zoning and assessment data beats the hell outta the credibility and reliability of Mass duhpraisals using hundreds or thousands of zip code or school district random computer generated so-called "comparables" which have not been currently vetted by humans.

one brand new example just posted https://appraisersforum.com/forums/threads/is-this-appropriate-to-add-to-the-report.220099/

 

[Elliott]

Dan,
Show us a real example of a report where you did it the right way, so that all of us appraisers who have a hard time finding 4 comparables and are expected to make a half dozen "supported" adjustments will know how its done. Just screen copy the grid and the explanations of how the adjustments were supported. Thanks in advanced. : )