Are we considered an essential service?

[Carnivore]

That's completely untrue. That cert has a date and that date is neither intended nor interpreted as a prediction of the future. Moreover, no court is going to rule otherwise. That appraisal gets reviewed within the context of that date, not a year later.

Thank You for Jumping in before i did... Your so much better at Hammering a major point Home.

Maybe I am a Fool. I see what I have to do is help my fellow Americans though a very troubling and financially perilous times. for no fault of their own they are where they are right now. Some may scoff at my attitude, all I can say you is 'F' Off. Sit their and whine like little B I itch's

Will I profit off of this tragedy! Barely... Will I make a Difference... Possibly ...and just Maybe not!

It saddens me deeply....

Do you really think your going to be dragged into Court? Do You? If so Quit, sit back and do nothing.

I am not at financial Risk. I will be just fine. Millions of people right now don't know how they will make the rent, house payment etc and that all happens in just a few short days ahead. That includes many Appraisers!

So you have two Choices. !. Do it 2. Don't do it. How hard is that?

Grow Up!

 

[Meandering]

No need to call anyone names.

How many new listings by you in the past 3 weeks?


Want to project the future?

What if new listings and sales don't happen for the next 6 weeks? Still gonna use 3 month old data for "Market value", in a market that is being told by their government to stay home?

 

[Meandering]

Oh that's the ticket.

If "the economy" doesn't open again until May,

and there are no or maybe 1 or 2 sales in a county from mid March until mid May, yeah, there was still market value,

cause, cause, cause

We didn't know buyers were supposed to stay home when the governor told them to.

 

[Meandering]

Bloomberg news:

Rhode Island Police to Hunt Down New Yorkers Seeking Refuge


the market was "open and competitive" as of the day.

 

[George Hatch]

Oh that's the ticket.

If "the economy" doesn't open again until May,

and there are no or maybe 1 or 2 sales in a county from mid March until mid May, yeah, there was still market value,

cause, cause, cause

We didn't know buyers were supposed to stay home when the governor told them to.

The situation can be reasonably expected to go into decline as we go. But - just as is applicable in a rapidly increasing market trend - those expectations for the future don't justify appraisers getting involved with magnifying those trends by going beyond the data and substituting their personal biases for the analyses of the data at hand.

Within the last 5 days:

477 sales of single family units closed in Los Angeles County. 12 months ago the 4-week total averaged 525/week.
253 sales of single family units closed in Orange County
487 sales of single family units closed in Riverside County
253 sales of single family units closed in San Bernardino County
355 sales of single family units closed in San Diego County

So in analysis of the market data in *this region* a comment that all market activity has completely or nearly completely ceased may be appropriate by this time next month, but as of today the most recent 5-day total doesn't support that conclusion. Not yet, anyway.

Maybe it's different in your region, but that's an opinion to be developed, not an assumption for you or me or any other appraiser to be making.

 

[Meandering]

6 months ago?



The MLS is not the only source of "data" concerning "market condition".



funny though
in '07-'09 all comps had to be within 30 days or less, to be comps 1-3, as the market was sliding down,

now,

6 months, yeah that's the ticket.

But as you note, if the MLS ever catches up to the market............................

Oh my, just like last time, people are going to sue.

One thing about predatory loans is, someone always gets hurt, and there is always someone else to blame.

Known, should have known, could have known.

 

[Meandering]

"Anticipated Future benefit"




Got that E&O page right there.

.

 

[George Hatch]

Have I ever told you how annoying that patronizing "oh my" barb that you like to use is? Or your habit of building those flimsy strawmen arguments or mischaracterizing what people are saying? You can do better than that. You should do better than that.

I'm not saying the MLS is the only source of market data. What I am saying is that the actual stats indicating to sales being closed is more directly relevant to your analysis of the value *as of today* than are the accounts of sales contracts dropping out or listing activity going into decline. Sure, they're worth a mention in your reports as to the potential trends going forward but as far as fitting into your reconciliation for the current value goes it's just another form of personal bias.

In a declining trend when we have listings demonstrating lower pricing than the most recent closed sales then those listings can be interpreted as representing the leading edge of that trend. We don't need to be lowballing properties below that point (same as we don't need to be concluding past the listings in an increasing market).

Observe and report. Refrain from editorializing or advocating

 

[Carnivore]

So it is a valid argument to say dated sale are not reflective of the market right now. I get that. Yes we actually don't have a lot of time to study for the effects, because it will take awhile to see that.

So when did Covid-19 become a known problem. " We learned about this particular virus shortly after a cluster of severe pneumonia cases were reported on New Year’s Eve 2019 in Wuhan, which is in the Hubei Province of China "

So up until then our markets were normal. Well that was over a year ago. How good were your Appraisals all of 2019. Well probably OK, because it did not pose a problem here until starting in January 2020. Even then we did not know it would have the impact it. So you advance a little further...

My point is that all your appraisals were fine up until Jan and maybe into Feb.2020 Now its all gone to h_ll So you have little to no risk until March where it all became uncertain.

Lack of recent sale now will be a problem. I see were some are concerned that they can not opine a Value in April without sale in April.

When I mean sale I include Pending sale. Those pending just may be your best indicators. I have had agents tell me the Contract Price on Pendings. Technically by law they are not suppose to do that, but they do if you talk nice to them.

I could be wrong.

 

[djd09]

no worries they have 10 years of data from
cheap AMCs , ROV's, and bloated purchase prices,
hybrids,
evaluators,
bpos,
avms,
and
waivers.
all we are missing is
barney frank blathering 'all is well'.