ASC numbers

[Mile High Trout]

The ASC will be the first to tell you that they don't have a clue what is in the numbers they report. For example, even after 30+ years of existence, they can't tell you how many appraisers there are, just how many licenses. Much like the USDA reports the number of farmers there are in the US changes when there are tiny little changes to definitions, but never reveals a fact.

Their site is dysfunctional on purpose. You can't filter out properly. Even appraisers whom have notices of suspension are shown as approved and no penalties when one looks at their other licenses in other states. It's that way on purpose.

 

[Mile High Trout]

It could be that the # of cert gens remained flat or rose, while # of res licenses declined - I read one figure from 2020 which reported approximately 66,000 res license appraisers at that time

Geesh, let's examine this amazingly difficult to grasp concept.

AMC's pilfered the hell out of the residential side lending and everyone hates their job because they don't like working under the thumb of criminal racketeering cartels.

While commercial did not seem to have any appraisal management companies present.

Hold on, I'm going to need one of my neurotropic brain pill dealies to make sense of this. brb.

 

[Mile High Trout]

I just posted a graphic off the ASC website last week. The number of individuals is ~65,900. They publish it in their annual report. So they do know. The number dropped by about 1200 heads during 2025
View attachment 110764

View attachment 110765

Do you ever get the feeling like maybe the entire managerial structure of the entire appraisal industry is somehow incompetent?

 

[Mile High Trout]

A better indicator would be people actively using those licenses. My guess is quite a few people will renew over the next few years but either retire or look for employment outside of the wonderful world of appraising.

If you log into Mercury from a lender manager position.

There are far far far fewer appraisers providing mortgage lending services than ever before. Active credentials continue to drop lower and lower and lower.

'Appraisal modernization!'

 

[Bob Ipock]

NC appraisers renew every June 30th. Per the last board meeting the total number of PEOPLE dropped by about 10%. That includes out of state appraisers.

 

[DWiley]

There are far far far fewer appraisers providing mortgage lending services than ever before. Active credentials continue to drop lower and lower and lower.

Is that not directly related to the record low mortgage origination numbers?

Origination Activity | Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Origination Activity

www.consumerfinance.gov

 

[Sadie]

Is that not directly related to the record low mortgage origination numbers?

Origination Activity | Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Origination Activity

www.consumerfinance.gov

No, not unless appraisers are not renewing licenses due lack of work. The number of appraisers is only indirectly correlated with originations.

 

[George Hatch]

We have previously seen a lot of appraisers get starved out of the business due to lack of demand. This will be the 3rd cycle of attrition since the inception of licensing.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Posted today to FB (IIRC this is the guy who reported CA numbers dipped below initial licensing numbers this time last year):

"CA lost 87 licenses between 8/1 & 9/1. I've been tracking this for years; that's by far the worst month I've ever seen. At that pace, we'd lose 1044 licenses in the next 12 months. To put that in perspective, a loss of that magnitude would equate tp 14.4% of all active licenses in CA."

 

[J Grant]

We have previously seen a lot of appraisers get starved out of the business due to lack of demand. This will be the 3rd cycle of attrition since the inception of licensing.

The GSE policies of replacing a % of appraisals with WAIVERS and cutting appraisals into fast-food portions, with a PDR collector replacing the appraisers at an inspection, mean less volume and full orders for appraisers, regardless of whether the demand side of mortgage volume is slow or busy. The low fees, especially on the AMC side, mean that in a slow cycle, where the field won't cover basic bills, and in a busy cycle, more $ but not enough to make up for the loss of income when things slow down again.

With a few exceptions, it has become, basically, an unsustainable profession on the residential regulated mortgage lending side. The costs of doing business keep climbing while most of the assignments going to appraisers are the time-consuming oddball/nightmare properties. Add in that a portion of the appraisers' work can happen after the report is delivered because the available online data makes everyone an instant expert who can challenge the value opinion, along with the appraiser having to respond to the increased scrutiny from the client, AMC, and GSE end.