Bidumbnomics

[Charles West]

I been watching the Yen and it's value has been declining to the US Dollar slowly.
It's good for me as it will be cheaper when I vacation in Japan.

If you can afford to get out of Milpitas. Hope springs eternal.

 

[Fernando]

I'm beginning to feel the budgetary constraints.
After paying the roof contractor and several more projects to be done and anticipation to pay all my property taxes, I'm feeling pressure to figure out where I can come up with the money.
My wife is looking forward to the Japan vacation and don't want to disappoint her.
I will raise some of my rents but that won't be enough to cover all my coming expenses.
I hope appraisal business picks up soon.

 

[OSU Beavers]

I hate to break it to you all, but the "crash" has not happened yet.

 

[Fernando]

I hate to break it to you all, but the "crash" has not happened yet.

What do you consider a crash?
My stock portfolio increased 30% from last year.
If market falls by 30%, I'll take a small hit relatively from last year.

 

[OSU Beavers]

A 20% real estate value correction is on the horizon.

The Stock Market is not the Economy. The Bond market is a greater indicator of nations health, and investors are demanding higher yields!

 

[Meandering]

Will empty offices cause the next banking crisis? Commercial real estate 'debt bomb' of $929 billion comes due this year with HUNDREDS of banks facing insolvency runs if default rates on the loans spike​

Some $929 billion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024, or 20 percent of the $4.7 trillion total outstanding debt.

 

[Fernando]

View attachment 85091

A 20% real estate value correction is on the horizon.

The Stock Market is not the Economy. The Bond market is a greater indicator of nations health, and investors are demanding higher yields!

Can't see that happening here. Real Estate prices have been going up for long time except during the Great Recession.
And if that happens again, great buying opportunity.

Wall Street is a good predictor of the investors in our economy. Despite higher bond yields which I like, I also like the resilience of the Stock Market in doing well.

 

[Fernando]

Will empty offices cause the next banking crisis? Commercial real estate 'debt bomb' of $929 billion comes due this year with HUNDREDS of banks facing insolvency runs if default rates on the loans spike​

Some $929 billion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024, or 20 percent of the $4.7 trillion total outstanding debt.

During Great Recession, there were many foreclosures but I didn't see the banks releasing them out for sale. It helped in not increasing supply and making prices dropped even further.
I suspect the commercial debts will be somehow contained in the banks' books. The FED will not let our Big Banks fail. We learned that from past history.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

My stock portfolio increased 30% from last year.

Inflation reduced that a lot.

Increase 1.00 30% = $1.30
Decrease $1.30 30% and it is $0.91

Hint - It's called math

 

[Fernando]

Inflation reduced that a lot.

Increase 1.00 30% = $1.30
Decrease $1.30 30% and it is $0.91

Hint - It's called math

I said " ....I'll take a small hit relatively from last year."
I doubt stock market goes 30% down this year.