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Cost Appraoch Insanity!

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would anyone even consider buying a vacant lot in a subdivision like this at all?

That's definately a question that you have to answer, knowing the market. We had a situation were we felt that no one would purchase the lot, heck I wouldn't even take it if it was offered for free in that particualr case.

So you feel that no one, not even a neighbor would want the extra land? If your thinking in terms of taxes, taxes can always be lowered once there's no house on the property.

I think you might need to break things down in your mind more. What is the value of that site if any to any potential buyer? Pat Butler seems to think that builders are still building around that lake. Would a builder pay more than a $1.00 for that land?

I just think that you might be confusing to many different variables here. Think one variable at a time. How much is the land worth? How much are building materials? What is the economic obsolescene inpact once you have figured the first 2 variables.

Your bulking everything together instead of looking at each individual aspect of the cost approach, IMO.
 
I dunno if any builder would want it, and that due to the obvious issue of having to build a conforming home that would (at this time) be financially unfeasible.

That's all I'm saying.

The neighbor angle has merit, thanks, as I hadn't even considered it, but then again, how would one begin to figure that out..? It would be what, 'Excess Land,' for how many years...?

Dave...
 
To me the cost approach is about building a substitute property.

Builders charge a price to build and that price we break down and call "cost". But it isn't the cost, as in "the actual expense to produce", it is the cost as in "the amount you would have to spend to have it produced for you". That is price and like any price profit is built in. On that note I will have to disagree with the Geiger principal because entreprenurial profits should already be built into the "cost" to produce to the typical consumer.

When times get tough and builders want to stay in business, they have to do the same thing the rest of us do and that is lower their profit margins in order to draw in buyers.

This reduction in price found in your immediate market, relative to what they could charge in another area of the pricing market (as defined by the cost guide) is measured as economic depreciation. As a more concrete example, putting it into appraiser terms, I cover two counties and both are just as easy for me because I live close to the border. My fee for both counties was always "X", but in the one county where the bigger city is located, if you want to get the work given the surpluss of appraisers, you will have to reduce your fee to meet the competition, which is basically "X minus Y". In the other county I can still charge "X", so "X - Y" is not the new cost to the consumer, but "Y" is the adjustment to cost to reflect the economic conditions.

The difference is that in building a house there is the added component of land.

I find land values drop at a faster rate than economic depreciation. When in an area that is similar to your location what I do is I isolate all the land sales available and I look to find what I have the best data on. I then compare those land sales from the past year to the same type of land sales from the year before. In my last assignment, the average price was $85,000 from the prior year and it was $55,000 in the current year. I then look at the houses that sold on that type of land in both years, and in this same example I saw a drop in value from $275,000 to $215,000, the result was a $60,000 drop with about $30,000, or half, attributable to the land. My house was a $220,000 house, which based on local rates of decline it would have been worth about $268,000 in the prior year. Because my lot sales were different (that is the subject was on a 60 X 100 lot and the lots I had been looking at were 1/4 to 1/2 acre), I considered the loss using allocation. I viewed my $48,000 drop in value due to $24,000 (50%) from the land and a $24,000 (50%) from economic depreciation due to the sluggish market and how it affects builder pricing.

If I do not have sales available in order to do the math, or if I do not have newer sales from which I can work with, then building the substitute property is not even a theoretical option, and the cost approach is not applicable.

That's how I do. I am sure it isn't perfect, but it seems to work out.
 
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I understand allocation, and normally that's a fine tool to consider, but I would still like to know why, if should exist (and I don't know whether it does or does not, as the builder is gone), would anyone even consider buying a vacant lot in a subdivision like this at all?

Let's say an uninsured home burned to the ground, and the owner abandoned his debt, and the remains were removed, would anyone even consider purchasing the lot? I don't think they would, as the burden of taxes combined with no profitable use for it would preclude anyone with their sense about them from buying it.

What would anyone do with it *now* even if it were available?

I think this is my stumbling block, and if an answer was provided I obviously missed it.

Dave...

What you have missed is there is a buyer for everything. All of the sudden we are in a down market and no one can see the forrest for the trees. This is not a permanent situation. Heck for the right price Id buy it in a heart beat and sit on it. Its called Speculative Investment and happens all the time. To say something has no value is a very dangerous idea when there are no influences affecting the value other than those of a down market.
Allocation will work better that a WAG ... which Im starting to think you are leaning toward ... with that guess being Zero. BUZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Wrong answer.
 
That's correct, I am leaning towards no value, and I don't think I'm off by much, if at all.

And it may even be the right answer. Are we going to fight some more, PE, or am I entitled to my opinion...?

Dave...
 
I don't want to take "sides", but I'm inclined to feel that we tend to forget that real estate value trends are cyclical, and nearly all land has some value. If the land is truly "worthless", the taxes would certainly be commensurate, so what would be the risk or cost for an investor in holding it for future development. Certainly some investor, long term minded, could see the value in having such a site. Perhaps the site would have value to the HOA, to be used as a common community park? I still think the answer is the lack of recognition of EO.
 
The EO *is* the solution, of that I am convinced, however, you also stated the following:

"Certainly some investor, long term minded, could see the value in having such a site."

Now there's where I do not know the answer. I can't find a single reason for anyone to buy a vacant lot in THIS subdivision due to the obvious issue of having to build a conforming home. No one would do that, hence to the builder (the most likely investor) the lot has the plague, and is worthless.

To the HOA? No, too small for anyuse there.

To the neighbor, or neighbors on either side? Maybe, perhaps they'd buy it and use it as frisbee throwing land and partytime family fun land until such a time comes when it will again be profitable to buy a lot in this market.

But here's a legitimate question: IF a conforming home must be built (and we cannot imagine the Village of Round lake saying otherwise, certainly not now), how would anyone ever be assured that anyone would ever again build such a thing? After all, it was a mistake to do so in the first place, as we are learning.

Dave...
 
Perhaps I am the only one to notice but Approach is mis-spelled in the beginning of this thread. Can that please be corrected?, it is bugging me. TIA.
 
I'd correct it if I could, it's bugging the heck outta me, too. Dang it!!

Dave...
 
That's correct, I am leaning towards no value, and I don't think I'm off by much, if at all.

And it may even be the right answer. Are we going to fight some more, PE, or am I entitled to my opinion...?

Dave...


When have I "fought" with you Dave?
 
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