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Cost Manuals
- Thread starter Hugh Hill
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George Hatch
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Austin,
Tell you what. Why don't you write the Appraisal Institute, point out all the "errors" in their book "The Appraisal of Real Estate" along with your correct solutions. Get them to back you up on changing the definition of appraisal, changing the manner in which we make adjustments to data, and while you're at it, maybe you can find a way to grandfather all the veteran real estate brokers, whose opinions you apparently favor over professional appraisers, into the industry as special consultants. That way, every time there's a question on value, we can just skip using an appraiser and go straight to that most trusted of opinions, that of a veteran real estate broker. Maybe you can convince the feds that the last S&L debacle was not led by guys using techno-jargon and spreadsheets to mask deficient judgment and outright lies. Tell them that your uber-AVM is the only way to go and that FIRREA should be revised accordingly. At that point, our industry and the real estate market in general will truly be ruled by logic alone. Our value opinions will morph into absolutes and there will never be a reason for anyone to seek a second opinion.
But until all that happens, I'll be happy to stay with the current combination of technique and judgment.
George Hatch
Tell you what. Why don't you write the Appraisal Institute, point out all the "errors" in their book "The Appraisal of Real Estate" along with your correct solutions. Get them to back you up on changing the definition of appraisal, changing the manner in which we make adjustments to data, and while you're at it, maybe you can find a way to grandfather all the veteran real estate brokers, whose opinions you apparently favor over professional appraisers, into the industry as special consultants. That way, every time there's a question on value, we can just skip using an appraiser and go straight to that most trusted of opinions, that of a veteran real estate broker. Maybe you can convince the feds that the last S&L debacle was not led by guys using techno-jargon and spreadsheets to mask deficient judgment and outright lies. Tell them that your uber-AVM is the only way to go and that FIRREA should be revised accordingly. At that point, our industry and the real estate market in general will truly be ruled by logic alone. Our value opinions will morph into absolutes and there will never be a reason for anyone to seek a second opinion.
But until all that happens, I'll be happy to stay with the current combination of technique and judgment.
George Hatch
Austin
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- Virginia
Folks: I think I stepped on old George's toes. Them artsy people are touchy! I can tell you from experience, it is hell being a leading edge kind of guy. Now I know how the guy felt that discovered the world was not flat but round. Still not popular in some some circles.
I have been through this before. I have been a ham radio operator for 44 years. I remember back in the 60's when AM radio was being replaced by SSB (single side band). The advantage of SSB is that it takes up about 1/3rd the bandwidth with 10 times the talking power. By the late 60's almost all AM radio was gone with the wind. There was this one old diehard that use to come up on the ham band every night and broadcast on AM for hours saying that he was sticking with good old AM radio until the day he died if for no other reason than just to show that it was still in exitence. Well he finally died, and now there is a group of old timers that have started using AM again because it reminds them of the old days and the equipment.
I can see it now, 20 years down the road, old George and his buddies sitting in the nursing home doing match pairs and telling tales of the old days when they could pull values right out of the air. Damn horseless carriages, gas engines, and flying machines. I'll take a good mule any day.
I have been through this before. I have been a ham radio operator for 44 years. I remember back in the 60's when AM radio was being replaced by SSB (single side band). The advantage of SSB is that it takes up about 1/3rd the bandwidth with 10 times the talking power. By the late 60's almost all AM radio was gone with the wind. There was this one old diehard that use to come up on the ham band every night and broadcast on AM for hours saying that he was sticking with good old AM radio until the day he died if for no other reason than just to show that it was still in exitence. Well he finally died, and now there is a group of old timers that have started using AM again because it reminds them of the old days and the equipment.
I can see it now, 20 years down the road, old George and his buddies sitting in the nursing home doing match pairs and telling tales of the old days when they could pull values right out of the air. Damn horseless carriages, gas engines, and flying machines. I'll take a good mule any day.
The regression obsession is crystal clear to me now.
Wait a minute, “Regression Obsession”? Sounds like a good name for a band.
P.S. At a 95% confidence level I hereby resign from any future regression posts. My brain hurts!
http://www.appraiseillinois.com
Austin
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- Virginia
Slacker: You wrote that my obsession with regression analysis is clear to you now in reference to my 44 years in ham radio. Actually, you hit the nail on the head. I learned the importance of regression from tuning transmitters, power amplifiers, antenna tuners, and antennas.
There are an infinite number of combinations of capacitance and inductance that result in reactance in a tuned circuit but only one combination will result in maximum efficiency and power transfer. You can literally tune forever and never find the correct answer by using the “art of tuning” method. But there is a solution. If you work out the numbers of the resonate circuit and preset the controls to the indicated values, regression method, one simple peaking of the circuit will be at the point of maximum efficiency. Top of the bell curve. Get it wrong and you lose efficiency, cause spurious radiation, and burn up the equipment. I also have some interesting theories on ionespheric physics if you are interested.
There are an infinite number of combinations of capacitance and inductance that result in reactance in a tuned circuit but only one combination will result in maximum efficiency and power transfer. You can literally tune forever and never find the correct answer by using the “art of tuning” method. But there is a solution. If you work out the numbers of the resonate circuit and preset the controls to the indicated values, regression method, one simple peaking of the circuit will be at the point of maximum efficiency. Top of the bell curve. Get it wrong and you lose efficiency, cause spurious radiation, and burn up the equipment. I also have some interesting theories on ionespheric physics if you are interested.
That ones got me on the edge of my seat. I can hardly wait to hear all about it.
Didn't this start as a cost question?
I use M&S. Works fine for me.
http://www.appraiseillinois.com
A
Anonymous
Guest
agreed. anyone can become a scientist when there is enough data. In the oil business if a geologist waited until they got all the evidence you need to find a prospective place to drill, someone has already beat you to it. It is your judgments when data is scarce that really measures your mettle.
I am trying to appraise a vacant "commercial" land tract in a deeply rural town of 300 people. There is one vacant land sale since 1986. There are about 10 other valid sales during that same time period. If you limit yourself to only sales in the past 3 years, you have 2 sales to deal with. Trying to go to the nearest town for comps is nonsensical---without explaining why - you might as well be using comps from Tulsa. The range of value suggests 11 to 95 cents per SF. So what's it worth? If this sale goes thru, it will mean the return of the first commercial business there in two years, and it has been 20 years at least since 2 businesses operated there at the same time down from 10-15 during the 20's and 30's.
I am trying to appraise a vacant "commercial" land tract in a deeply rural town of 300 people. There is one vacant land sale since 1986. There are about 10 other valid sales during that same time period. If you limit yourself to only sales in the past 3 years, you have 2 sales to deal with. Trying to go to the nearest town for comps is nonsensical---without explaining why - you might as well be using comps from Tulsa. The range of value suggests 11 to 95 cents per SF. So what's it worth? If this sale goes thru, it will mean the return of the first commercial business there in two years, and it has been 20 years at least since 2 businesses operated there at the same time down from 10-15 during the 20's and 30's.
Austin
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- Virginia
Terrell: Simple regression problem. Put the lot size on the X-axis, and the price on the Y-axis, estimate the trend line and you have your answer. Doesn't sound likely that the same size lot would have that kind of range for price per sf.
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