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Data Cancer found....

I'm open to the concept and I certainly know better than to say "always" or "never", but I don't think this is a persuasive example of the allegation.
 
You are all getting a good lesson on statistics. Any position you want to take can be argued for or against in most cases. Which is why I'll take geographical experience and common sense over what the GSEs are looking for every day of the week.

When waivers are the highest sales in the neighborhoods, then most of us should be able to recognize the problem. Unless you're looking to argue just because.
 
chad hampton said:
You are all getting a good lesson on statistics. Any position you want to take can be argued for or against in most cases. Which is why I'll take geographical experience and common sense over what the GSEs are looking for every day of the week.

When waivers are the highest sales in the neighborhoods, then most of us should be able to recognize the problem. Unless you're looking to argue just because.
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Did you look for yourself or are you just saying "Amen" because Brother Phil has a camera so that must make it true? The conclusions are supposed to come AFTER the analysis of the data, not in lieu of it. I appreciate how you feel but I'm more interested in what you (actually) think by the time you complete your analysis.

BTW, I never thought I'd live to see the day when an appraiser put price/sf as a serious mode of analysis for SFRs with such a wide spread in GLA. We normally LOL at the broker chix when they try to do that.

In any case, if the problem is widespread as declared then you and others should have no trouble coming up with a number of cleaner examples (without the atypicals) which clearly demonstrate the theme. Show us something we can all agree leads us to the similar conclusion. Mejappz says there are a bunch of them showing 15%-$25% overvalued. Let's see some of those.
 
George Hatch said:
The sales in his dataset which sold after the 04/2024 sale ranged from $320k-$347k, not including the 05/29/2024 sale of the waterfront property with the much smaller home which sold for $360k. His dataset is showing a $27k spread between 05/2024 and 09/2024, but it would be $40k if his dataset were more complete.

Here are the other 2024 sales after 08/2024:
$310,000; 2350sf in 12/2024
$335,000: 1736sf in 10/2024

Here are the 2023 sales which sold prior to his dataset:
$320,000; 2064sf in 12/2023
$297,000; 1568sf in 10/2023
$330,000; 1856sf in 07/2023
$326,000; 1804sf in 06/2023
$355,000; 2207sf in 05/2023
$300,000; 1906sf in 04/2023
$355,000l 1899sf in 04/2023
$360,000; 2200sf in 01/2023

By my count these before and after sales are not screaming at some big price jump at any point during the last 2 years. There are (2) sales in 2023 and (1) sale in 2024 at $300k, but aside from that most of the action is between $320k and $360k despite the huge difference in the size ranges. Only the subject and one other sale sold in excess of $360k.

The subject might have sold too high for an appraisal, I can't tell. But the one thing I'm not seeing is the alleged effect on any of these subsequent sales.

Others might disagree.
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As Phil said in his podcast, there are two other PENDINGS he's waiting on to close. You didn't seem to mention those in your critique.
 
Mr Crawford is local and presumably has access to the local MLS. I don't, not have I pretended to have that level of access. So I EXPECT him to have access to a lot more data than what Zillow will show. I EXPECT him to be familiar with his subject's sales history, along with the sales histories all the other waterfront that have sold in that project over the last 10 years. Maybe that location is no big deal; if so then he would have the means to develop an informed opinion of that beyond the 3 sales in the last 3 years.

You never responded to my question: now that you're more familiar with the data than before, do you still have the same opinions? There is one sale that's 200sf larger than the subject and sold for $397k without a view amenity; all the other sales after 04/2024 sold between $320k-$360k, similar to the 2023 sales. If the talking point is that this one sale skewed everything coming after then where's the big excessive increase? Because these sales aren't showing it.

If I thought otherwise then I'd say otherwise. I have no reason not to.

And while we're at it, kindly note that I am not refuting the general allegation of waivers affecting pricing. I can neither agree nor disagree at this point. I'm just interested in seeing a more persuasive example of the problem than this one.

In our day job "Problem Identification" comes first.
 
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Bottom line is that a waiver is not an arm's length transaction. A waiver doesn't promote transparency or facilitate fair market pricing.

A waiver should be notated in the MLS as the type of sale... like a standard sale, trust sale, or probate sale.

MLS: Type of sale: Wve (waiver). This type of sale very well may be considered an anomaly and tossed out from being blown into the Excel spreadsheet as an outlier. For a waiver to be disguised as a standard sale is misleading imo.
 
Surf Cat said:
Bottom line is that a waiver is not an arm's length transaction. A waiver doesn't promote transparency or facilitate fair market pricing.

A waiver should be notated in the MLS as the type of sale... like a standard sale, trust sale, or probate sale.

MLS: Type of sale: Wve (waiver). This type of sale very well may be considered an anomaly and tossed out from being blown into the Excel spreadsheet as an outlier. For a waiver to be disguised as a standard sale is misleading imo.
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I disagree with you on this.

The waiver pertains to the valuation, not the mortgage, which remains a conventional or FHA loan at whatever terms and interest rate the bank gives. The valuation however, is a waiver of the appraisal and for purchases, the sale price is the property is also the value of the property, as long as it falls within an AVM range (the AVM from fannie or freddie)

It is an arms-length transaction,
 
Surf Cat said:
Bottom line is that a waiver is not an arm's length transaction. A waiver doesn't promote transparency or facilitate fair market pricing.

A waiver should be notated in the MLS as the type of sale... like a standard sale, trust sale, or probate sale.

MLS: Type of sale: Wve (waiver). This type of sale very well may be considered an anomaly and tossed out from being blown into the Excel spreadsheet as an outlier. For a waiver to be disguised as a standard sale is misleading imo.
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"Arm's length" is between buyer and seller and occurs at the meeting of the minds. Not between borrower and mortgager at the time of the loan. Nor are the terms and conditions of the financing itself atypical. Only the underwriting is atypical. Speaking of, if/when (for example) 30% of the mortgages are underwritten this way can we really call that atypical?

I'm trying to think of what "adjustment for atypical underwriting" would look like. Or how an appraiser would go about developing such an adjustment factor.
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In your research you find that S#2 and S#4 were financed without an appraisal. Now what?
 
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