http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-06-27/leaked-docs-throw-doubt-gas-prospects-jun-27
Seems that the Emperor has no clothes... While Oil is $90 a bbl. Gas is $4...a ratio of 22.5 whereas the BTU content of a bbl of oil is only 6-10 x that of Nat gas. In other words, nat gas is relatively cheap compared to oil..very cheap in fact.
This has hurt the drillers but they have "booked" reserves that are beginning to look like "inflated" numbers. Encana among others is taking a hit as Chinese investors are pulling the rug from beneath them. They are seeing the light that those reserves are badly over-stated especially if you think you should drill for gas only when it is profitable.
Ultimately Arthur Berman, critic of the shale gas plays, whose column was discontinued at
World Oil magazine and his editor fired, will be vindicated. But I doubt
World Oil would admit that Berman was right as they were under heavy pressure from advertisers to silence the truth.
By optimistic projections, the drillers are their own worst enemies. If they restate the reserves lower to raise prices, they likely face both SEC scrutiny and fleeing investors. If they continue claiming high reserves that are deeply suspect, then the price will remain low in what the investment community believes is a "glut" of nat gas.
I suspect the "glut" is ephemeral and will disappear rapidly if a few players are forced into bankruptcy or have to restate reserves DOWN significantly. It was a mistake for the SEC to allow companies to "book" PUD (proven undeveloped) reserves. If they don't drill those "PUD" wells up within 5 years, they will have to restate reserves which will have serious consequences. Likely either the investors will sue them or the SEC will sue them. It's a choice.
Cash for Clunkers is looking all the worse. Taking "old" cars off the road was reminescent of Roosevelt burning cotton crops and shooting millions of hogs and cattle to improve farm prices. Instead, we could have spent those billions on converting our fleet to nat gas. Today conversion is running up to $10,000. The conversion is $2,000...the fuel tank is $8000...or about $40 in metal and $20 in welding and $7,940 in liabilty insurance in the event a tank fails or explodes in a wreck... Tort lawyers are licking their chops at the prospects. The government could take that lollipop away by setting compensation and standards for tank design and reduce the conversion costs to under $4000.