Global Economy Bursting?

[Workbox]

The game changed folks, this market should have gone down over 200 points on the S&P. At the last minute it received a life jacket from the government plunger team. We have a compete disconnect, the job numbers were a complete indication of the weakness of the economy. It seems that the too big to fail companies are getting rewarded for bad behavior. We could have big upswings through the summer. It depends on how next week earning come out. I feel real bad for the 401k folks. They should learn how to get into inverses.

You are going to start hearing from the the talking media puppets that "bad news is good news and good news is exceptional news". The same way they did before we had the RE bubble. They are fattening the turkey before the slaughter.

 

[Couch Potato]

You'll never make money on what the market should have done. The days are long gone when the market moves based only on the US economy. The market is simply marking time in a trading range until things get moving in the economy.

 

[prasercat]

The funds that power the government and those jobs come from the private sector in the form of taxes. Further, your 2% figure only accounts for federal hires, and does not include state and municipal government jobs.

When state and local governments are considered this number jumps to 16% of the labor force.

I thought you were focused on the federal government, but you are essentially correct, that when combining all government entities, they are a big employer. The money came from taxes, and it went back to creating needed jobs domestically, rather than overseas.

Why is it that market manipulation by private forces is considered a bad thing, but when it's done by the government via the Federal Reserve, subsidies, poorly conceived regulations, etc. it's a good thing?

For instance, why do you think college costs and medical costs have skyrocketed at rates far exceeding inflation? Because the costs aren't paid with hard dollars out of our pockets, but with either insurance funds, grants and/or federally subsidized loans.

Medical costs have skyrocketed in large part due to Wall Street taking over most of the private hospitals, even the one's with Saint (St.) in their names (reminds me of that Red Riding Hood Story). They may make you feel better, or abuse the hell out of you, or kill you (I've heard the stories); however, health isn't their priority, since profits come first, and abuse is a useful tool in getting to the CAAAASH BABY! Business 101.

College costs have increased for a variety of reasons. One reason may be that state subsidies have decreased, causing students to shoulder more of the costs, since many private Wall Street schools are hitting up homeless people for their own BS PR and so they can qualify these financially unqualified people for a huge education loan they won't be able to repay. The private institution pockets the money, the government doesn't get the money back, so it must make cut backs to the REAL educational institutions (Doesn't that remind you of what Wall Street did with lending to dead people or anyone with a heartbeat to create a loan and transaction - same stuff. That's because they are self regulating and they know what they like).

 

[prasercat]

You'll never make money on what the market should have done. The days are long gone when the market moves based only on the US economy. The market is simply marking time in a trading range until things get moving in the economy.

The trading firms and hedge funds make money on the ups and downs, they are not obsessed with the long term direction; although, a protracted downturn would take investor money out of the market, which is the money they need to get their hands on in the ups and downs. The direction of money must flow from the individual, the pension plan, the savings account, etc, to those that control the massive computers that are trading day-in and day-out, carefully extracting money out of our pockets, our children's pockets and their children's pockets.

Making money because the market goes up over a long period is such a dated concept. Your grandfather and father could have done so, but the long term is now a day or a few hours.

 

[Austin]

State and local governments bleeding jobs...

 

[DTB]

You'll never make money on what the market should have done. The days are long gone when the market moves based only on the US economy. The market is simply marking time in a trading range until things get moving in the economy.

I can't even begin to understand what that is supposed to mean?!? The market does what the market does. The purpose of the market is to facilitate trading, therefore it is most often range bound which means it is at what is considered "fair value" to buyers and sellers. It probes out of the range until one side is exhausted. i.e. no more buyers at that price, then retraces or consolidates.

In order to consistantly take profits one must deal with probabilities of a desired action taking place. The market doesn't have to perform accordingly. When dealing with the market via probability it removes all thought of "what the market should have done".

For me, this has resulted in being very happy with a win ratio of 55-56% and combined with reward/risk ratio of 2:1+ has been quite profitable.

The only people who know which direction a market will move are those big enough to move it that way!

While my son currently has other ideas, I would love to be able to expand this legacy and it pass it on to him as it is a most enjoyable and profitable alternative to many other career possibilities.

Good luck to all.

P.S. What sparked this all for me was a conversation during an appraisal. The homeowner was/is the 2nd largest volume corn trader in the world. I do indeed owe a debt to my time spent appraising.

 

[Austin]

however, health isn't their priority, since profits come first, and abuse is a useful tool in getting to the CAAAASH BABY! Business 101.

This is pretty much the mindset of the left. It is totally inane. How can any enterprise operate at a loss? The consequences of not operating at a profit are to operate at a loss which the system has been doing and is the very reason why health insurance cost are through the roof. This is like saying if gravity was not so strong we would all weight less. 60 years of TV propaganda has obvious paid a heavy dividend.
Not to be left out: There is no abuse in hospitals that operate at a loss? Sheesh!!!! The local doctors don't even use the local hospital. Why you ask? 60% of the patients pay nothing, they operate at a loss and the medical service stinks.

 

[Couch Potato]

Certainly nothing wrong with guessing what the market will do and acting accordingly. And there is no problem with using the past to make the best guess possible, but when you guess wrong you simply need to accept it and move on. My post was in response to the following:

The game changed folks, this market should have gone down over 200 points on the S&P. At the last minute it received a life jacket from the government plunger team. We have a compete disconnect, the job numbers were a complete indication of the weakness of the economy. It seems that the too big to fail companies are getting rewarded for bad behavior. We could have big upswings through the summer. It depends on how next week earning come out. I feel real bad for the 401k folks. They should learn how to get into inverses.

You are going to start hearing from the the talking media puppets that "bad news is good news and good news is exceptional news". The same way they did before we had the RE bubble. They are fattening the turkey before the slaughter.

I think the post is utter nonsense. The S&P moves mostly based on earnings. Things like jobs reports are merely indications that help people guess where earnings will go. The government jobs number is only one of at least four different jobs numbers, none of which are known for high accuracy. Yesterday the market decided the government number might well be total bull sh** that will not alter the path of the earnings trend.

The Wall Street day-trade casino is certainly the best odds you will find in a gambling joint, but there is no way to be sure what will happen. I always get a nice laugh anytime I read a "things are different now" remark. The secret to making money on Wall Street is to buy low and sell high just as it has always been.

The trading firms and hedge funds make money on the ups and downs, they are not obsessed with the long term direction; although, a protracted downturn would take investor money out of the market, which is the money they need to get their hands on in the ups and downs. The direction of money must flow from the individual, the pension plan, the savings account, etc, to those that control the massive computers that are trading day-in and day-out, carefully extracting money out of our pockets, our children's pockets and their children's pockets.

Making money because the market goes up over a long period is such a dated concept. Your grandfather and father could have done so, but the long term is now a day or a few hours.

Nothing has changed about the fact time and patience are proven winners in the Wall Street casino. Enough time and patients will even cover a stupid move like buying at the height of a bubble. The only thing that alters the "long term" is the age of the person placing the bet. Yes, there have been some nice peak at which to sell and some nice drops at which to buy over the last fifteen years, but the sure fire strategy is still put the money in when you are young and pull it out when you are old preferably collecting reasonable dividends along the way.

 

[Couch Potato]

State and local governments bleeding jobs...

That is certainly a piece of good news. Nothing quite like real evidence of government getting smaller to brighten one's day. :new_smile-l:

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

CP, the lower chart you posted above begs a question to me. The trendline from the depression to say 1984 was pretty straight line, it changed angle signifcantly at that time, and then in 1994 steepened again. From the dot com bust on, the volatility is enormous. We are still above the 84-94 trend line by 50%. My question is why and how. Inflation (real inflation - globally indexed) - and what better measure of international indexing is there but the cost of oil...the linch pin of a energy based economy..