Global Economy Bursting?

[DMZwerg]

With your talent and background, you should be working at the United Nations to straighten them out. That is the source of the data for demographics.

So, let us see ... even given average lifespan of even 80 years and Baby Boomers are 1946-1964 and given Baby Boomers are already started hitting the 65+ category 1-2 years ago and the last of them will hit 65+ in 2029 why does the chart keep going exponential?

Realize that the chart does NOT take into account persons aged 20-64 that may already be on social security, only population numbers.

Therefore, the only way that could happen that the chart keeps going on such a sharp upward curve through 2040 is if the average number of children and family size keeps decreasing and the life expectancy keeps increasing. Realize that it is NOT the Baby Boomers that have expected average lifespan of 80 years, but rather the babies born more recently (for Baby Boomers it was much lower) but the 80 figure as a half-life is likely a decent approximation for the Baby Boomers currently alive as remaining average lifespan of babies just born is lower than that of those that have already reached more advanced ages as so many that have already died in the older group. Therefore the number of population at 65+ should likely be stable or actually be declining by 2029 when the last of the Boomers hit 65.

That leads us to the second flaw in the graph, namely that it assumes a continued decrease in birth rate in developed countries and appears to fail to acknowledge another source for population increases in the <64 category, namely immigrants. I know of few if any developed nations that are not already seeing large immigrant populations. Most new immigrants tend to be younger when they first arrive and thus the average age of immigrants in the US is 40.5 putting the average immigrant at YOUNGER than the Baby Boomers.

I could go on, but I think I poked enough holes in it. Having been trained in probability and statistics I would remind people of the quote:

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain (as attributed by him to Disraeli)
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[Randolph Kinney]

Maybe you have focused too much on the US and not read the original post.

The graph is showing the imminent decline of the West's source of cheap labor — immigrants.

The plots show dependents as a percentage of the overall working age population over time — in other words, how many old folks the working population are supporting.

The upward path in the red line is the dependency ratio for more developed regions of the world. The working population shrinks, meaning the birth rate has fallen below replacement and has stayed there for decades. Immigration has made up for the falling fertility rate of the developed countries, for example, Europe, and the U.S.

The green line (less developed regions of the world) is showing a rise from 2030 on and the relative flattening of its decline from 2015 onward. Why is that a problem? Because until recently, immigration into the advanced economies from developing economies was taken as a given. That will change.

Young immigrant workers who've flooded into developed nations to provide them with cheap labor will start having to support their own elderly back home.

That means they'll either be sending a large percentage of their pay back home, or will stop coming to the developed world entirely.

Economic growth is higher in the less developed countries than developed countries. Capital flows are going to emerging markets and with it, jobs.

Simply put, a shrinking labor force will have to support a growing retirement population.

Here is the UN charts for the U.S.

Projections of Total Fertility: Median, 80% / 95% prediction intervals and high / low WPP fertility variant

Sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, depending on mortality rates.

Today, about 42% of the world population lives in nations with sub-replacement fertility.

Nonetheless most of these countries still have growing populations due to immigration, population momentum and increase of the life expectancy. This includes most nations of Europe, Canada, Australia, Russia, Iran, Tunisia, China, and many others.

Only a few countries have low enough or sustained sub-replacement fertility (sometimes combined with other population factors like emigration) to have population decline, such as Japan, Germany, Lithuania, and Ukraine.

I could go on, but I think I poked enough holes in it. Having been trained in probability and statistics ...

You can save it because your conclusions are not born out by the data and statistics. :icon_mrgreen:

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Here is an interesting chart on fertility rates from the UN.


Estimates and Projections of Total Fertility

 

[Randolph Kinney]

World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision


Figure 15a: Population age 15-24 by major regions (millions)

World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision


Figure 8: Population by Total Fertility (millions)

 

[Restrain]

You reduce the gross labor force, you increase the productivity through better systems. Less manual labor, more mechanized labor. Further, you are trending a decline in overall population, thus reducing needs for energy growth, food stocks, etc. At the turn of the last century, food was grown on smaller farms, with horse-drawn equipment. With the advent of mechanized equipment, many moved off the farms, while the actual farm operations grew significantly, as did production.

We will adapt, we always do.

 

[Big ole Boy]

Will we adapt with civility intack ?

We will adapt, we always do.

Adaptation though could come in the form of mauranding mobs - you know dark ages stuff .... yea ... we will adapt ... humans will survive .....

.... but will it be with electricity or with sticks and stones ......?

... will 7 billion adapt .... ? maybe 500,000 will adapt ...

....

..

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.... will our US dollar adapt ... I think not .....

... and most of us are made in the image of the US dollar ....

 

[Randolph Kinney]

You reduce the gross labor force, you increase the productivity through better systems. Less manual labor, more mechanized labor. Further, you are trending a decline in overall population, thus reducing needs for energy growth, food stocks, etc. At the turn of the last century, food was grown on smaller farms, with horse-drawn equipment. With the advent of mechanized equipment, many moved off the farms, while the actual farm operations grew significantly, as did production.

We will adapt, we always do.

The future does not look bright. We are an economy based upon financial institutions that distribute money and credit that has provided the means to the consumer to consume.

There are major structural problems related to demographics.


For Unpaid College Loans, Feds Dock Social Security

http://www.smartmoney.com/borrow/st...m-college-debt-1344292084111/?link=SM_hp_ls4e

More retirees are falling behind on student debt, and Uncle Sam is coming after their benefits.

Now, thousands of retirees are learning that defaulting on student-debt can threaten something that used to be untouchable: their Social Security benefits.

According to government data, compiled by the Treasury Department at the request of SmartMoney.com, the federal government is withholding money from a rapidly growing number of Social Security recipients who have fallen behind on federal student loans. From January through August 6, the government reduced the size of roughly 115,000 retirees' Social Security checks on those grounds. That's nearly double the pace of the department's enforcement in 2011; it's up from around 60,000 cases in all of 2007 and just 6 cases in 2000.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

From Chicago To New York And Back In 8.5 Milliseconds

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chicago-new-york-and-back-85-milliseconds

The round trip from the biggest quant trading hub in Chicago to the exchange hubs in NY and NJ, has been cut by over 50%, or from over 13 milliseconds to just about 9 milliseconds, courtesy of Microwaves ... have fun trading this market, human. You will lose all the time. 100% guaranteed.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Jamie Dimon Blames You For The Lousy Economy

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-gongloff/jamie-dimon-economy_b_1755732.html?utm_hp_ref=business

The real reason the economy is doing poorly, according to Dimon, is because of our constant finger-pointing and asking of unhelpful questions, like: "Why aren't banks holding more capital?" and "Why aren't any of you B_____ds in jail?" and "Who took all of my money?"

 

[Randolph Kinney]

High Frequency Traders Are “Parasites” That Erode Investor Confidence

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/brea...de-investor-confidence-polcari-143626622.html

It was inevitable. No sooner had word gotten out that Knight Capital (KCG) had managed to find a way to survive, and the focus of debate has changed to something more sinister. As stupid or careless as Knight's admitted software glitch or mistake was, it would never have happened had it not been for the legion of computer-assisted, high-speed traders who prowl the markets in search of opportunities exactly like this - then pounce. Knight's blunder was their bounty.

"When you sit down and look at really what is the role that high frequency traders play, it's frustrating. What are they really here for? They're buying and selling 100 share lots, up and down for pennies all day long. When you add up all those pennies, all day long, it's a big deal, clearly someone is taking money out of somebody's pocket and real investors are getting frustrated with that."