Global Economy Bursting?

[DMZwerg]

Thank you for helping to confirm my point that people who reached adulthood lived long lives even when social security was new.

I can post contrary data just as easily ... my grandparents lived to 90 but my parents never made it to 80.


So much for anecdotal evidence

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Antedotal evidence...

My Great Great Grandfather lived to be 93. He was born in 1823. His son (my Ggf) lived to be 32. TB killed an awful lot of young adults. But a high percent of children didn't make it 20. GGGfather outlived 2 of his children. Grandad lived to be 82, his son lived to be 70 and my brother lived to be 65. I was a pallbearer at my brother's best friend's funeral last week. He was 10 months older than me.

The richer you are, the more likely to live longer you are and statitically that even applied to people who didn't go to the doctor any more than their poorer brethren.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

So what do some of us learn from the original graph showing a ratio of dependents (ages 0 to 19 plus ages greater than 65) to working age population (ages 20 to 64)?

It is a projection of the future relative to the past along with a forecasted change of immigration slowing down from less developed regions of the world to more developed regions of the world.

Immigration contributed 80% of the growth in the population of the U.S. from 2000 to 2010. The age of these immigrants contributed significantly to the working age population.

The immigration trend into the U.S. has already slowed down and has turned negative. http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2012/04/PHC-04-23a-Mexican-Migration.pdf

The conclusion is with less working age population growth coupled with increasing population growth of dependent age population, consumption patterns will change and not for the better. The impact on GDP growth will be negative. The standard of living will fall.

 

[Big ole Boy]

.... In 2013 or sooner .... graphs, stats ..... of any kind won't matter much according to the economist Rubini ....

.... anybody see his latest video clips ....

....

 

[Randolph Kinney]

.... In 2013 or sooner .... graphs, stats ..... of any kind won't matter much according to the economist Rubini ....

.... anybody see his latest video clips ....

....

Nothing says disaster as an abrupt change in tax laws and spending reductions. The result will be to reduce the participation rate of the working population potential. That means ...

However, the long term population trends in the developed countries spell disaster even if Robini is wrong on his prediction of 2013.

The burden of supporting a non-working population that is increasing faster than the working population is unsustainable.

 

[berniek]

Something interesting I heard at a meeting yesterday from our rail division.
The BNSF, CSX and UP etc. are pulling freight cars out of storage due to the increase in construction material and petroleum hauling demands.
Maybe a precursor of what's ahead?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Something interesting I heard at a meeting yesterday from our rail division.
The BNSF, CSX and UP etc. are pulling freight cars out of storage due to the increase in construction material and petroleum hauling demands.
Maybe a precursor of what's ahead?

Economic activity in the Fourth District continued to expand since our last report, but at a slower pace. On balance, manufacturers reported a slight rise in production. New-home construction ticked down, while nonresidential builders saw stronger inquiries. Retailers and auto dealers noted little change in sales during May. Wet shale gas drilling and production increased, though the demand for coal has slowed. Freight transport volume moved lower. And there was some easing in the demand for business credit.

Little hiring was reported across industry sectors.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...al-reserve-beige-book-cleveland-district-text

The Fed's monthly Beige Book indicated that manufacturing and retail sales growth were weaker in the last month.

Four districts noted that economic activity was expanding slower than it had in the last report, with one even reporting mixed activity.

http://www.businessinsider.com/july-beige-book-2012-7#ixzz23ACZTFBi

 

[Randolph Kinney]

U.S. banks told to make plans for preventing collapse

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/10/us-banks-recoveryplans-idUSBRE87905N20120810

U.S. regulators directed five of the country's biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

The two-year-old program, which has been largely secret until now, is in addition to the "living wills" the banks crafted to help regulators dismantle them if they actually do fail. It shows how hard regulators are working to ensure that banks have plans for worst-case scenarios and can act rationally in times of distress.

According to documents obtained by Reuters, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency first directed five banks - which also include Citigroup Inc,, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co - to come up with these "recovery plans" in May 2010.

They told banks to consider drastic efforts to prevent failure in times of distress, including selling off businesses, finding other funding sources if regular borrowing markets shut them out, and reducing risk. The plans must be feasible to execute within three to six months, and banks were to "make no assumption of extraordinary support from the public sector," according to the documents.

 

[Couch Potato]

I can post contrary data just as easily ... my grandparents lived to 90 but my parents never made it to 80.


So much for anecdotal evidence

Have some statistical evidence. The ultimate age men attain has changed by less than three years. That has a minuscule impact compared to nearly 40% increase in men reaching the age of 65.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The standard of living will fall.

Japan faces the dilemma of a falling population and aging one as well...They have no immigrants.

White America is already shrinking which is changing the demographics of race in the country faster than mere immigration can account for. In other words, zero immigration wouldn't change the fact that there are higher and higher percentages of Asian, Hispanic, and blacks. And they have far more children. African-Americans suffer from a high rate of young men dying by violence as well as health issues related to poverty thus the hispanic and Asian communities are growing the fastest and living the longest. Black females actually outlive the average white male. White females live the longest and have the fewest children, actually the white population is shrinking.
Native Americans, OTOH, have a high incidence of diabetes and alcohol abuse and live almost 4 years less than their non-Indian counterparts. The alchohol seems especially bad among some of the more tribal areas such as the Dakotas where the average longivity of Indian males is 58 by one measure.