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Global Economy Bursting?

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Terrel L. Shields said:
Mutuals were meant to be "safe" returns. By the time I realized the fallacy of that the Mutuals had plunged right with the stock market....too late to go to the sidelines. They've recovered nicely along with the market but in reality they have performed no better than an indexed fund with the overall market. So the annual returns don't look that bad... But for 2 quarters they fell like a rock.

If one rates the "Best" places to retire then clearly the vote is Hawaii and S. California ...no. 1 and 10 on the list. CA tied with Texas. NM actually outranked both. But that is over a range of issues. If cost is an issue, then Hawaii is by far the most expensive place to retire to.

If you want the "worst" places to retire it has to be Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Alaska and Illinois.

The cheapest towns to live in? Harlingen, TX; Ardmore, OK; Memphis, TN; and Fayetteville, AR. Low insurance, low crime, low cost housing, and lower tax rates overall.

For me? I'd be hardpressed to move from New Mexico to CA, NV or AZ....Alamogordo to me would be ideal. Warm winter, and if you wanted to go skiing then Cloudcroft or Ruidoso is not far "up the hill"...and if the summer sun is too hot, I'd go back to the mountains again.
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I am going to post on the Watercooler thread as I feel guilty discussing retirement plans on the Economic thread but appreciate your input immensely. We LOVE NM but are concerned about water. I know you have been hard hit by drought as the whole central US has. May be an issue in CA as well but at least they get rain from time to time and can actually grow stuff.

On an economic note, the whole SW may have a water issue. I attended a water conference in ABQ over 5 years ago and their predictions have so far been spot on for the SW. Preliminary January through December 2012 statewide average precipitation was 60% of normal and the 2nd driest year on record!. I was tracking precip for ABQ on a monthly basis for awhile, but official stats are woefully behind (budget cuts??) I can tell you our unofficial monitor outside the house would indicate a very very low precip year for us. When you are in the desert, you NEED the rain. Song by SADE that I have always loved. "I need you like the desert needs the rain."

http://www.krqe.com/dpp/news/local/central/texas-suing-nm-in-water-war Texas suing NM for water.

How much will property values decline if water wars erupt or the drought continues for years? We have Intel, a major employer, but they use a lot of water. What about jobs?

http://www.mydesert.com/article/201...reen-Desert-Climate-changes-disrupt-Southwest
 
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In the 50's, we had a multi-year drought. Historical records show that CA is coming out of a historically heavy rain period. Weather trends from wet to dry and back. You can plan on a water shortage in CA, NV.

However, over the weekend, as CA is experiencing a decline in tax revenues after increasing taxes again(haven't we seen this before?), you can count on taxes to be increased. After all, spending cannot be cut.
 
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And here are the measures:
  • Material wellbeing as measured by GDP per head (in $, at 2006 constant PPPS)
  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Quality of family life, based primarily on divorce rates; the state of political freedoms; job se*curity (measured by the unemployment rate)
  • Climate (measured by two variables: the average deviation of minimum and maximum monthly temperatures from 14 degrees Celsius; and the number of months in the year with less than 30mm rainfall)
  • Personal physical security ratings (based primarily on recorded homicide rates and ratings for risk from crime and terrorism)
  • Quality of community life (based on membership in so*cial organisations);
  • Governance (measured by ratings for corruption)
  • Gender equality (measured by the share of seats in parliament held by women)
 
On an economic note, the whole SW may have a water issue. I attended a water conference in ABQ over 5 years ago and their predictions have so far been spot on for the SW. Preliminary January through December 2012 statewide average precipitation was 60% of normal and the 2nd driest year on record!.
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The 4 corners had a drought which by some measure was from 20 to 75 years in duration in the 12th Century, a period known as the Medival Warming Event, when world wide temperatures increased and wheat was growing in Greenland and Grapes in N. England. There have been a lot of similar "Mega-Droughts" lasting years or even decades over the eons. The fact we have had only 120 years or so of systematic records in the U. S. makes no particular record earth shattering. There are 365 days a year. There are record high and lows for each day. There are dozens of major cities to record temperatures, say 100. Therefore in any given year, 365 ÷ 120 = 3~ and 3 x 100 = 300 new record temperature highs and 300 new record temperature lows across America. Any unusually hot or cold year would easily see that triple without being inconsistent with a gaussian distribution.

Further, some argue that 1998 was the "hottest year on record" but in fact, NOAA later retracted that and admitted 1934 and 1936 were hotter. I check a weather channel daily and this time of year, most of the record lows were from 1910's and 1940's...

Yes, the West is arid and there is a limit to water. California, imho, is probably in worse shape than the 4 corners states. The fact the last few years were not as dry isn't an indication they won't become drier. But any way you slice it, the states west of the plains has a limited amount of water, there isn't much chance they will get any more as the difficulty in building additional reserviors mounts as each new one is constructed....so when does the West say "enough"? Why is Saudi Arabia not as crammed with people as Iran? It's all about the water.

For entertainment, try to google up "megadrought" and see what the history of drought is in the U. S. Our own sense of "normal" is vastly impacted by the span of our life. For those who did not live in the 19th century, we really cannot know what it was like then...we think the relatively moderate climate of the 1960 - 1990 period is "normal" when in fact, it was not. The 30s -50s are closer to "normal".
 
Terrel L. Shields said:
The 4 corners had a drought which by some measure was from 20 to 75 years in duration in the 12th Century, a period known as the Medival Warming Event, when world wide temperatures increased and wheat was growing in Greenland and Grapes in N. England. There have been a lot of similar "Mega-Droughts" lasting years or even decades over the eons. The fact we have had only 120 years or so of systematic records in the U. S. makes no particular record earth shattering. There are 365 days a year. There are record high and lows for each day. There are dozens of major cities to record temperatures, say 100. Therefore in any given year, 365 ÷ 120 = 3~ and 3 x 100 = 300 new record temperature highs and 300 new record temperature lows across America. Any unusually hot or cold year would easily see that triple without being inconsistent with a gaussian distribution.

Further, some argue that 1998 was the "hottest year on record" but in fact, NOAA later retracted that and admitted 1934 and 1936 were hotter. I check a weather channel daily and this time of year, most of the record lows were from 1910's and 1940's...

Yes, the West is arid and there is a limit to water. California, imho, is probably in worse shape than the 4 corners states. The fact the last few years were not as dry isn't an indication they won't become drier. But any way you slice it, the states west of the plains has a limited amount of water, there isn't much chance they will get any more as the difficulty in building additional reserviors mounts as each new one is constructed....so when does the West say "enough"? Why is Saudi Arabia not as crammed with people as Iran? It's all about the water.

For entertainment, try to google up "megadrought" and see what the history of drought is in the U. S. Our own sense of "normal" is vastly impacted by the span of our life. For those who did not live in the 19th century, we really cannot know what it was like then...we think the relatively moderate climate of the 1960 - 1990 period is "normal" when in fact, it was not. The 30s -50s are closer to "normal".
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Good info but somewhat depressing. So where are there moderate temps (CA) and lots of water? Without grey skies constantly like the pacific northwest. If you make me choose between our beautiful blue skies (lack of moisture) and grey skies (moisture above)...hard hard choice. After all, we left Peoria IL because we didn't see the sun for 30 days. We went on a vacation to the SW and ABQ had a university and beautiful blue skies. We stayed. Shortly after it rained hard and I told a native that we were escaping the grey skies and he replied that I would soon learn to yearn for the rain. How true. Still, that was 30 years ago and I did not worry significantly about precip until recently. The last time I did a rain dance was over 35 years ago in OK on a farm in Weatherford.
 
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It is not nearly as well known but many athletes live in the DFW area. They live in hotels during the season, but have their permanent home in Texas. Much lower housing costs, living costs, no income tax.
 
Mickelson is taxed at the 13.3% rate for California on $60 million for his 2012 income or roughly $8 million. Mickelson was content to pay 10.3% before the increase to 13.3%. Going after $1.8 million more in taxes on Mickelson risks the whole $8 million.

It is just another fantasy that the rich are not sensitive to tax rates. Everyone knows Mickelson will pay California $8 million for the privilege to live there as oppose to Texas or Florida where there is no personal income tax.

And for the ignorant who believe that taxes won't go up on the middle class ...
 
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