GSE Waiver & Data Collection Data

[CGinMN]

We tested property data collection for seven years. We tested it with appraisers, insurance inspectors, realtors, and several other workforces. We observed similar results across all workforces. That is because of the standardized, objective nature of the data standard, and also a testament to the intuitive technology that is used to collect the data. We have received over 350,000 PDC’s to date, and we have compared that data to data we see in appraisals on the same properties. By every objective measure we have, it compares very favorably. Additionally, we have received over 250,000 hybrid appraisals that used a PDC. We have compared those appraisals to traditional appraisals on the same properties and again, they compare very favorably. If you have not seen what a PDC looks like, I encourage you to look at one. It’s more comprehensive than any inspection I ever did as an appraiser. While we do not control what vendors charge or pay, I am not aware of anyone paying $25 for a GSE Uniform Property Dataset. Make sure you are not confusing it with lesser scope data collections or inspections typically used for servicing scenarios.

I work for a lender and know the difference between the various products. I’ve seen data collectors produce PDCs for $25 in Palm Beach County. The AMC earned $175. I can post receipts, but then it’ll just be dismissed as not typical, which maybe it isn’t. But the sole reason appraisers aren’t getting PDCs is because AMCs make more using uber drivers.

I am sure your testing showed no significant difference between appraiser PDC and uber-driver PDC. Did you publish it? I also would bet that the AMCs you partnered with during the pilot were losing money QCing all their files to ensure that outcome. Whether you get quality at scale is another question.

 

[gregb]

We have received over 350,000 PDC’s to date, and we have compared that data to data we see in appraisals on the same properties. By every objective measure we have, it compares very favorably. Additionally, we have received over 250,000 hybrid appraisals that used a PDC. We have compared those appraisals to traditional appraisals on the same properties and again, they compare very favorably.

Have you compared the turn time between traditional appraisals and "appraisals" using a PDC, from engagement date to submission date?

 

[Mejappz]

KILL APPRAISERS PART II

 

[Overimprovement]

Look, we all know the end game, the intermediate steps should no longer surprise anyone. To be clear, I'm not some discontent appraiser whining because I can't feed my family. As I have posted, I have moved on from appraising and earn more now than in any year as an appraiser. Rather, my comments are geared toward getting everyone else to realize what many already can see.

It is abundantly clear that the residential mortgage appraiser is running on fumes. The technology is basically here now to have a realtor or homeowner walk around their home with their phone, and upload the video to the final company standing (probably involving corelogic or its remnants), which will input that data into an AVM. The turn time from home video to value will be an hour at most, even with some level of review by a human. The cost will be negligible.

The small and mid-size AMCs are panicking because they know this too, and are in a massive money grab while there are still a few dollar bills on the dying tree.

And none of this even considers how AI will factor in. Nothing mentioned above is really AI yet, just data manipulation. I think the only real hurdle left is having software recognize different levels of quality and condition, but I understand that is well underway as well.

And other than about 40,000 appraisers, who will be complaining? Everyone gets what they think they want, who cares if some buyer pays more than a home is worth along the way? Broker gets paid. Seller gets paid. Buyer gets their desired house. Lender gets the churn and sells to the GSEs. The GSEs make CMBS's and sell them. By the time some poor insurance company gets stuck with a bad tranche, they just write it off as Q3 investment loss, and their shareholders react accordingly.

Every time a GSE tries to equate the utility and/or accuracy of something less than a full appraisal with a full appraisal, it is merely a precursory justification for completely removing appraisers from the valuation process. But they can. The government created the need for appraisals to begin with. Big Brother giveth, Big Brother taketh away.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't think appraisers are going away. There will be fewer of us though.

 

[Overimprovement]

I don't think appraisers are going away. There will be fewer of us though.

Many have already gone away. I will say this, the number of residential only appraisers in 5 years appraising full time with 5 or more years of experience will be less than 5,000. Obviously just my guess. Anyone have a different guess?

 

[CGinMN]

Right now we are below 30,000. I think this downward trend is due solely to workforce aging into retirement without much replacement. I think it accelerates due to low appraisal volume (no refis, waivers), more efficiency (desktops/hybrids), new forms, and AI. Danny just told me that there is a large percentage of appraisers who only do a handful a month. That number could increase as appraisers hang on to their good clients, which are harder to come by. I think 5,000 full time appraisers in 5 years is very realistic. Hard to measure though.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Many have already gone away. I will say this, the number of residential only appraisers in 5 years appraising full time with 5 or more years of experience will be less than 5,000. Obviously just my guess. Anyone have a different guess?

No idea. Maybe it is just the optimist in me but I feel like business will be picking again soon

 

[CGinMN]

Where does that extra business come from? More sales? Cash out?

 

[glenn walker]

The gross numbers don't reflect how many old guys licences have not yet expired or have a few years left

What I'm finding is many who have a licence but no longer working. Then i talk with ones who only take a VA order and some only do one a month snd two in a good month but those guys will quit soon and are just trying to cover costs and supplement their SS.

So in California i believe it was down to a all time low of like 6,800 licenses but my guess is a third are semi retired or waiting for it to expire.

These are crazy low numbers when you consider a population of they say around 37 million people.