GSE Waiver & Data Collection Data

[Joe Flacco]

We definitely need it, but we cant seem to build more than 1.5 million units a year. We need to build like 2-2.5 million for several years in a row, in the right places too. Hard to do that with labor shortages and rising materials costs.

I think during the pandemic it was the supply side that was limiting but now supply side has been corrected but is being limited by effective demand. Going forward, I think we are going to see high wage growth, mostly at the bottom half of the income range. I think that is going to do a lot for housing activity.

 

[CGinMN]

I think our current track on immigration and tariffs could change the supply side, limiting future effective demand. We’ll see about wage growth, it would be nice.

 

[CGinMN]

If we really want to grow 5% GDP like you want, I think we need robust immigration.

 

[The Bob]

Right now we are below 30,000. I think this downward trend is due solely to workforce aging into retirement without much replacement. I think it accelerates due to low appraisal volume (no refis, waivers), more efficiency (desktops/hybrids), new forms, and AI. Danny just told me that there is a large percentage of appraisers who only do a handful a month. That number could increase as appraisers hang on to their good clients, which are harder to come by. I think 5,000 full time appraisers in 5 years is very realistic. Hard to measure though.

View attachment 97950

I

The gross numbers don't reflect how many old guys licences have not yet expired or have a few years left

What I'm finding is many who have a licence but no longer working. Then i talk with ones who only take a VA order and some only do one a month snd two in a good month but those guys will quit soon and are just trying to cover costs and supplement their SS.

So in California i believe it was down to a all time low of like 6,800 licenses but my guess is a third are semi retired or waiting for it to expire.

These are crazy low numbers when you consider a population of they say around 37 million people.

Or guys like me that have retired but are still licensed. Mine expires in 2026 and I may re-new one more time. Never say never. We have a 2 year cycle in VA. And it's only $100. Biggest cost is the CE.

 

[Joe Flacco]

If we really want to grow 5% GDP like you want, I think we need robust immigration.

I don't want to sound all maga but I think the tariff plan is going to work. End game being fewer tariffs and barriers for exports. I also think that once illegal immigration is solved we will have very robust legal immigration.

 

[djd09]

in ohio their so called 'data collections' are considered to be home inspections....governed by laws and license requirements

 

[The Bob]

I think it' going to take along time to undo the damage from "globalization".

And BTW, didn't the Fed outlaw recessions?

 

[CGinMN]

I don't want to sound all maga but I think the tariff plan is going to work. End game being fewer tariffs and barriers for exports. I also think that once illegal immigration is solved we will have very robust legal immigration.

I’m not opposed to any of this. But they have been trying to solve immigration for 30 years. It would be nice if we could have robust legal immigration with strong borders. With declining birth rates we need it badly.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

I’m not opposed to any of this. But they have been trying to solve immigration for 30 years. It would be nice if we could have robust legal immigration with strong borders. With declining birth rates we need it badly.

Have they really been trying tho? They just pretend to sometimes for election purposes, like that poison immigration bill as Biden was almost out the door.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I’m not opposed to any of this. But they have been trying to solve immigration for 30 years. It would be nice if we could have robust legal immigration with strong borders. With declining birth rates we need it badly.

I don't think they tried very hard.